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3.75M
| pred_category
stringclasses 12
values | pred_subcategory
stringclasses 43
values |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
I4Grr89G1OO9lNSULQpU
|
will-any-us-senate-election-in-2024
|
Will any U.S. Senate election in 2024 be decided by less than 1%?
| null | 1,689,382,476,245
| 1,732,943,309,074
| 1,732,943,309,074
|
YES
| 0.99
| 13,024.93013
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
3m1fgej0u7
|
one-month-from-today-will-manifold-a0migluya1
|
One month from today, will Manifold pay out Spice/Prize Points/Similar currency as USD to at least one USA state?
| null | 1,726,459,802,751
| 1,729,137,540,000
| 1,729,140,293,291
|
YES
| 0.78
| 127
|
Politics
|
Public Policy & Social Issues
|
delgzszzkG4IsoEFNxCD
|
nfl-week-9-nov-3-2024-will-the-seat
|
NFL Week 9 (Nov 3 2024): Will the Seattle Seahawks (home) beat the Los Angeles Rams (away)?
| null | 1,715,834,191,878
| 1,730,836,319,804
| 1,730,836,319,804
|
NO
| 0.011881
| 1,367.128352
|
Sports
|
Professional Sports
|
vgguj7ayip
|
will-the-israelis-bomb-iran-before
|
Will the Israelis bomb Iran before 2025?
| null | 1,727,701,567,343
| 1,729,935,930,930
| 1,729,935,930,930
|
YES
| 0.99
| 17,558.516747
|
Geopolitics
|
Global Conflicts
|
UitJbJIPmkakW2hLgTFP
|
will-a-democrat-win-the-2024-us-sen-acee7113d48b
|
Will a Democrat win the 2024 US Senate election in Montana?
| null | 1,670,677,349,540
| 1,730,913,909,275
| 1,730,913,909,275
|
NO
| 0.026476
| 75,397.302536
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
TRJ3UVJ9lYEphPys4Q8C
|
will-i-play-at-least-50-fiderated-c
|
Will I play at least 50 FIDE-rated classical games this year?
| null | 1,707,851,685,680
| 1,730,264,387,286
| 1,730,264,387,286
|
NO
| 0.451201
| 1,073.748399
|
Sports
|
Individual Sports
|
c3pg77npaq
|
will-netflix-reverse-its-illadvised
|
Will Netflix reverse its ill-advised decision to cast Lera Abova in One Piece?
| null | 1,726,999,787,548
| 1,732,624,134,580
| 1,732,624,134,580
|
NO
| 0.042072
| 4,599.090487
|
Entertainment
|
Movies & Television
|
j57kg99wed
|
will-wimipa-all-be-won-by-the-same
|
Will WI/MI/PA all be won by the same candidate?
| null | 1,718,601,081,326
| 1,731,218,340,000
| 1,731,295,614,355
|
YES
| 0.99
| 1,556.400692
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
VydVZH2qxHWEr6cdL8BA
|
will-a-democrat-win-the-2024-presid-6d04e99d80fa
|
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in North Carolina?
| null | 1,670,815,269,432
| 1,731,292,946,889
| 1,731,292,946,889
|
NO
| 0.009742
| 17,598.172261
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
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