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Dec 12

Sequence to Sequence Learning with Neural Networks

Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) are powerful models that have achieved excellent performance on difficult learning tasks. Although DNNs work well whenever large labeled training sets are available, they cannot be used to map sequences to sequences. In this paper, we present a general end-to-end approach to sequence learning that makes minimal assumptions on the sequence structure. Our method uses a multilayered Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) to map the input sequence to a vector of a fixed dimensionality, and then another deep LSTM to decode the target sequence from the vector. Our main result is that on an English to French translation task from the WMT'14 dataset, the translations produced by the LSTM achieve a BLEU score of 34.8 on the entire test set, where the LSTM's BLEU score was penalized on out-of-vocabulary words. Additionally, the LSTM did not have difficulty on long sentences. For comparison, a phrase-based SMT system achieves a BLEU score of 33.3 on the same dataset. When we used the LSTM to rerank the 1000 hypotheses produced by the aforementioned SMT system, its BLEU score increases to 36.5, which is close to the previous best result on this task. The LSTM also learned sensible phrase and sentence representations that are sensitive to word order and are relatively invariant to the active and the passive voice. Finally, we found that reversing the order of the words in all source sentences (but not target sentences) improved the LSTM's performance markedly, because doing so introduced many short term dependencies between the source and the target sentence which made the optimization problem easier.

  • 3 authors
·
Sep 10, 2014

Predicting Stock Market Time-Series Data using CNN-LSTM Neural Network Model

Stock market is often important as it represents the ownership claims on businesses. Without sufficient stocks, a company cannot perform well in finance. Predicting a stock market performance of a company is nearly hard because every time the prices of a company stock keeps changing and not constant. So, its complex to determine the stock data. But if the previous performance of a company in stock market is known, then we can track the data and provide predictions to stockholders in order to wisely take decisions on handling the stocks to a company. To handle this, many machine learning models have been invented but they didn't succeed due to many reasons like absence of advanced libraries, inaccuracy of model when made to train with real time data and much more. So, to track the patterns and the features of data, a CNN-LSTM Neural Network can be made. Recently, CNN is now used in Natural Language Processing (NLP) based applications, so by identifying the features from stock data and converting them into tensors, we can obtain the features and then send it to LSTM neural network to find the patterns and thereby predicting the stock market for given period of time. The accuracy of the CNN-LSTM NN model is found to be high even when allowed to train on real-time stock market data. This paper describes about the features of the custom CNN-LSTM model, experiments we made with the model (like training with stock market datasets, performance comparison with other models) and the end product we obtained at final stage.

  • 4 authors
·
May 21, 2023 1

Forecasting S&P 500 Using LSTM Models

With the volatile and complex nature of financial data influenced by external factors, forecasting the stock market is challenging. Traditional models such as ARIMA and GARCH perform well with linear data but struggle with non-linear dependencies. Machine learning and deep learning models, particularly Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, address these challenges by capturing intricate patterns and long-term dependencies. This report compares ARIMA and LSTM models in predicting the S&P 500 index, a major financial benchmark. Using historical price data and technical indicators, we evaluated these models using Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). The ARIMA model showed reasonable performance with an MAE of 462.1, RMSE of 614, and 89.8 percent accuracy, effectively capturing short-term trends but limited by its linear assumptions. The LSTM model, leveraging sequential processing capabilities, outperformed ARIMA with an MAE of 369.32, RMSE of 412.84, and 92.46 percent accuracy, capturing both short- and long-term dependencies. Notably, the LSTM model without additional features performed best, achieving an MAE of 175.9, RMSE of 207.34, and 96.41 percent accuracy, showcasing its ability to handle market data efficiently. Accurately predicting stock movements is crucial for investment strategies, risk assessments, and market stability. Our findings confirm the potential of deep learning models in handling volatile financial data compared to traditional ones. The results highlight the effectiveness of LSTM and suggest avenues for further improvements. This study provides insights into financial forecasting, offering a comparative analysis of ARIMA and LSTM while outlining their strengths and limitations.

  • 2 authors
·
Jan 28

Risk forecasting using Long Short-Term Memory Mixture Density Networks

This work aims to implement Long Short-Term Memory mixture density networks (LSTM-MDNs) for Value-at-Risk forecasting and compare their performance with established models (historical simulation, CMM, and GARCH) using a defined backtesting procedure. The focus was on the neural network's ability to capture volatility clustering and its real-world applicability. Three architectures were tested: a 2-component mixture density network, a regularized 2-component model (Arimond et al., 2020), and a 3-component mixture model, the latter being tested for the first time in Value-at-Risk forecasting. Backtesting was performed on three stock indices (FTSE 100, S&P 500, EURO STOXX 50) over two distinct two-year periods (2017-2018 as a calm period, 2021-2022 as turbulent). Model performance was assessed through unconditional coverage and independence assumption tests. The neural network's ability to handle volatility clustering was validated via correlation analysis and graphical evaluation. Results show limited success for the neural network approach. LSTM-MDNs performed poorly for 2017/2018 but outperformed benchmark models in 2021/2022. The LSTM mechanism allowed the neural network to capture volatility clustering similarly to GARCH models. However, several issues were identified: the need for proper model initialization and reliance on large datasets for effective learning. The findings suggest that while LSTM-MDNs provide adequate risk forecasts, further research and adjustments are necessary for stable performance.

  • 1 authors
·
Jan 2

Hedging Properties of Algorithmic Investment Strategies using Long Short-Term Memory and Time Series models for Equity Indices

This paper proposes a novel approach to hedging portfolios of risky assets when financial markets are affected by financial turmoils. We introduce a completely novel approach to diversification activity not on the level of single assets but on the level of ensemble algorithmic investment strategies (AIS) built based on the prices of these assets. We employ four types of diverse theoretical models (LSTM - Long Short-Term Memory, ARIMA-GARCH - Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average - Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity, momentum, and contrarian) to generate price forecasts, which are then used to produce investment signals in single and complex AIS. In such a way, we are able to verify the diversification potential of different types of investment strategies consisting of various assets (energy commodities, precious metals, cryptocurrencies, or soft commodities) in hedging ensemble AIS built for equity indices (S&P 500 index). Empirical data used in this study cover the period between 2004 and 2022. Our main conclusion is that LSTM-based strategies outperform the other models and that the best diversifier for the AIS built for the S&P 500 index is the AIS built for Bitcoin. Finally, we test the LSTM model for a higher frequency of data (1 hour). We conclude that it outperforms the results obtained using daily data.

  • 3 authors
·
Sep 27, 2023

Characterizing Verbatim Short-Term Memory in Neural Language Models

When a language model is trained to predict natural language sequences, its prediction at each moment depends on a representation of prior context. What kind of information about the prior context can language models retrieve? We tested whether language models could retrieve the exact words that occurred previously in a text. In our paradigm, language models (transformers and an LSTM) processed English text in which a list of nouns occurred twice. We operationalized retrieval as the reduction in surprisal from the first to the second list. We found that the transformers retrieved both the identity and ordering of nouns from the first list. Further, the transformers' retrieval was markedly enhanced when they were trained on a larger corpus and with greater model depth. Lastly, their ability to index prior tokens was dependent on learned attention patterns. In contrast, the LSTM exhibited less precise retrieval, which was limited to list-initial tokens and to short intervening texts. The LSTM's retrieval was not sensitive to the order of nouns and it improved when the list was semantically coherent. We conclude that transformers implemented something akin to a working memory system that could flexibly retrieve individual token representations across arbitrary delays; conversely, the LSTM maintained a coarser and more rapidly-decaying semantic gist of prior tokens, weighted toward the earliest items.

  • 3 authors
·
Oct 24, 2022

Combining Recurrent, Convolutional, and Continuous-time Models with Linear State-Space Layers

Recurrent neural networks (RNNs), temporal convolutions, and neural differential equations (NDEs) are popular families of deep learning models for time-series data, each with unique strengths and tradeoffs in modeling power and computational efficiency. We introduce a simple sequence model inspired by control systems that generalizes these approaches while addressing their shortcomings. The Linear State-Space Layer (LSSL) maps a sequence u mapsto y by simply simulating a linear continuous-time state-space representation x = Ax + Bu, y = Cx + Du. Theoretically, we show that LSSL models are closely related to the three aforementioned families of models and inherit their strengths. For example, they generalize convolutions to continuous-time, explain common RNN heuristics, and share features of NDEs such as time-scale adaptation. We then incorporate and generalize recent theory on continuous-time memorization to introduce a trainable subset of structured matrices A that endow LSSLs with long-range memory. Empirically, stacking LSSL layers into a simple deep neural network obtains state-of-the-art results across time series benchmarks for long dependencies in sequential image classification, real-world healthcare regression tasks, and speech. On a difficult speech classification task with length-16000 sequences, LSSL outperforms prior approaches by 24 accuracy points, and even outperforms baselines that use hand-crafted features on 100x shorter sequences.

  • 7 authors
·
Oct 26, 2021

A Critical Review of Recurrent Neural Networks for Sequence Learning

Countless learning tasks require dealing with sequential data. Image captioning, speech synthesis, and music generation all require that a model produce outputs that are sequences. In other domains, such as time series prediction, video analysis, and musical information retrieval, a model must learn from inputs that are sequences. Interactive tasks, such as translating natural language, engaging in dialogue, and controlling a robot, often demand both capabilities. Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are connectionist models that capture the dynamics of sequences via cycles in the network of nodes. Unlike standard feedforward neural networks, recurrent networks retain a state that can represent information from an arbitrarily long context window. Although recurrent neural networks have traditionally been difficult to train, and often contain millions of parameters, recent advances in network architectures, optimization techniques, and parallel computation have enabled successful large-scale learning with them. In recent years, systems based on long short-term memory (LSTM) and bidirectional (BRNN) architectures have demonstrated ground-breaking performance on tasks as varied as image captioning, language translation, and handwriting recognition. In this survey, we review and synthesize the research that over the past three decades first yielded and then made practical these powerful learning models. When appropriate, we reconcile conflicting notation and nomenclature. Our goal is to provide a self-contained explication of the state of the art together with a historical perspective and references to primary research.

  • 3 authors
·
May 29, 2015

textTOvec: Deep Contextualized Neural Autoregressive Topic Models of Language with Distributed Compositional Prior

We address two challenges of probabilistic topic modelling in order to better estimate the probability of a word in a given context, i.e., P(word|context): (1) No Language Structure in Context: Probabilistic topic models ignore word order by summarizing a given context as a "bag-of-word" and consequently the semantics of words in the context is lost. The LSTM-LM learns a vector-space representation of each word by accounting for word order in local collocation patterns and models complex characteristics of language (e.g., syntax and semantics), while the TM simultaneously learns a latent representation from the entire document and discovers the underlying thematic structure. We unite two complementary paradigms of learning the meaning of word occurrences by combining a TM (e.g., DocNADE) and a LM in a unified probabilistic framework, named as ctx-DocNADE. (2) Limited Context and/or Smaller training corpus of documents: In settings with a small number of word occurrences (i.e., lack of context) in short text or data sparsity in a corpus of few documents, the application of TMs is challenging. We address this challenge by incorporating external knowledge into neural autoregressive topic models via a language modelling approach: we use word embeddings as input of a LSTM-LM with the aim to improve the word-topic mapping on a smaller and/or short-text corpus. The proposed DocNADE extension is named as ctx-DocNADEe. We present novel neural autoregressive topic model variants coupled with neural LMs and embeddings priors that consistently outperform state-of-the-art generative TMs in terms of generalization (perplexity), interpretability (topic coherence) and applicability (retrieval and classification) over 6 long-text and 8 short-text datasets from diverse domains.

  • 4 authors
·
Oct 9, 2018

Mamba-360: Survey of State Space Models as Transformer Alternative for Long Sequence Modelling: Methods, Applications, and Challenges

Sequence modeling is a crucial area across various domains, including Natural Language Processing (NLP), speech recognition, time series forecasting, music generation, and bioinformatics. Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) and Long Short Term Memory Networks (LSTMs) have historically dominated sequence modeling tasks like Machine Translation, Named Entity Recognition (NER), etc. However, the advancement of transformers has led to a shift in this paradigm, given their superior performance. Yet, transformers suffer from O(N^2) attention complexity and challenges in handling inductive bias. Several variations have been proposed to address these issues which use spectral networks or convolutions and have performed well on a range of tasks. However, they still have difficulty in dealing with long sequences. State Space Models(SSMs) have emerged as promising alternatives for sequence modeling paradigms in this context, especially with the advent of S4 and its variants, such as S4nd, Hippo, Hyena, Diagnol State Spaces (DSS), Gated State Spaces (GSS), Linear Recurrent Unit (LRU), Liquid-S4, Mamba, etc. In this survey, we categorize the foundational SSMs based on three paradigms namely, Gating architectures, Structural architectures, and Recurrent architectures. This survey also highlights diverse applications of SSMs across domains such as vision, video, audio, speech, language (especially long sequence modeling), medical (including genomics), chemical (like drug design), recommendation systems, and time series analysis, including tabular data. Moreover, we consolidate the performance of SSMs on benchmark datasets like Long Range Arena (LRA), WikiText, Glue, Pile, ImageNet, Kinetics-400, sstv2, as well as video datasets such as Breakfast, COIN, LVU, and various time series datasets. The project page for Mamba-360 work is available on this webpage.https://github.com/badripatro/mamba360.

  • 2 authors
·
Apr 24, 2024 1

Recoding latent sentence representations -- Dynamic gradient-based activation modification in RNNs

In Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs), encoding information in a suboptimal or erroneous way can impact the quality of representations based on later elements in the sequence and subsequently lead to wrong predictions and a worse model performance. In humans, challenging cases like garden path sentences (an instance of this being the infamous "The horse raced past the barn fell") can lead their language understanding astray. However, they are still able to correct their representation accordingly and recover when new information is encountered. Inspired by this, I propose an augmentation to standard RNNs in form of a gradient-based correction mechanism: This way I hope to enable such models to dynamically adapt their inner representation of a sentence, adding a way to correct deviations as soon as they occur. This could therefore lead to more robust models using more flexible representations, even during inference time. I conduct different experiments in the context of language modeling, where the impact of using such a mechanism is examined in detail. To this end, I look at modifications based on different kinds of time-dependent error signals and how they influence the model performance. Furthermore, this work contains a study of the model's confidence in its predictions during training and for challenging test samples and the effect of the manipulation thereof. Lastly, I also study the difference in behavior of these novel models compared to a standard LSTM baseline and investigate error cases in detail to identify points of future research. I show that while the proposed approach comes with promising theoretical guarantees and an appealing intuition, it is only able to produce minor improvements over the baseline due to challenges in its practical application and the efficacy of the tested model variants.

  • 1 authors
·
Jan 3, 2021

Stacking Your Transformers: A Closer Look at Model Growth for Efficient LLM Pre-Training

LLMs are computationally expensive to pre-train due to their large scale. Model growth emerges as a promising approach by leveraging smaller models to accelerate the training of larger ones. However, the viability of these model growth methods in efficient LLM pre-training remains underexplored. This work identifies three critical textit{O}bstacles: (O1) lack of comprehensive evaluation, (O2) untested viability for scaling, and (O3) lack of empirical guidelines. To tackle O1, we summarize existing approaches into four atomic growth operators and systematically evaluate them in a standardized LLM pre-training setting. Our findings reveal that a depthwise stacking operator, called G_{stack}, exhibits remarkable acceleration in training, leading to decreased loss and improved overall performance on eight standard NLP benchmarks compared to strong baselines. Motivated by these promising results, we conduct extensive experiments to delve deeper into G_{stack} to address O2 and O3. For O2 (untested scalability), our study shows that G_{stack} is scalable and consistently performs well, with experiments up to 7B LLMs after growth and pre-training LLMs with 750B tokens. For example, compared to a conventionally trained 7B model using 300B tokens, our G_{stack} model converges to the same loss with 194B tokens, resulting in a 54.6\% speedup. We further address O3 (lack of empirical guidelines) by formalizing guidelines to determine growth timing and growth factor for G_{stack}, making it practical in general LLM pre-training. We also provide in-depth discussions and comprehensive ablation studies of G_{stack}. Our code and pre-trained model are available at https://llm-stacking.github.io/{https://llm-stacking.github.io/}.

  • 8 authors
·
May 24, 2024 1

Titans: Learning to Memorize at Test Time

Over more than a decade there has been an extensive research effort on how to effectively utilize recurrent models and attention. While recurrent models aim to compress the data into a fixed-size memory (called hidden state), attention allows attending to the entire context window, capturing the direct dependencies of all tokens. This more accurate modeling of dependencies, however, comes with a quadratic cost, limiting the model to a fixed-length context. We present a new neural long-term memory module that learns to memorize historical context and helps attention to attend to the current context while utilizing long past information. We show that this neural memory has the advantage of fast parallelizable training while maintaining a fast inference. From a memory perspective, we argue that attention due to its limited context but accurate dependency modeling performs as a short-term memory, while neural memory due to its ability to memorize the data, acts as a long-term, more persistent, memory. Based on these two modules, we introduce a new family of architectures, called Titans, and present three variants to address how one can effectively incorporate memory into this architecture. Our experimental results on language modeling, common-sense reasoning, genomics, and time series tasks show that Titans are more effective than Transformers and recent modern linear recurrent models. They further can effectively scale to larger than 2M context window size with higher accuracy in needle-in-haystack tasks compared to baselines.

  • 3 authors
·
Dec 31, 2024 3

Read, Highlight and Summarize: A Hierarchical Neural Semantic Encoder-based Approach

Traditional sequence-to-sequence (seq2seq) models and other variations of the attention-mechanism such as hierarchical attention have been applied to the text summarization problem. Though there is a hierarchy in the way humans use language by forming paragraphs from sentences and sentences from words, hierarchical models have usually not worked that much better than their traditional seq2seq counterparts. This effect is mainly because either the hierarchical attention mechanisms are too sparse using hard attention or noisy using soft attention. In this paper, we propose a method based on extracting the highlights of a document; a key concept that is conveyed in a few sentences. In a typical text summarization dataset consisting of documents that are 800 tokens in length (average), capturing long-term dependencies is very important, e.g., the last sentence can be grouped with the first sentence of a document to form a summary. LSTMs (Long Short-Term Memory) proved useful for machine translation. However, they often fail to capture long-term dependencies while modeling long sequences. To address these issues, we have adapted Neural Semantic Encoders (NSE) to text summarization, a class of memory-augmented neural networks by improving its functionalities and proposed a novel hierarchical NSE that outperforms similar previous models significantly. The quality of summarization was improved by augmenting linguistic factors, namely lemma, and Part-of-Speech (PoS) tags, to each word in the dataset for improved vocabulary coverage and generalization. The hierarchical NSE model on factored dataset outperformed the state-of-the-art by nearly 4 ROUGE points. We further designed and used the first GPU-based self-critical Reinforcement Learning model.

  • 3 authors
·
Oct 7, 2019

The Languini Kitchen: Enabling Language Modelling Research at Different Scales of Compute

The Languini Kitchen serves as both a research collective and codebase designed to empower researchers with limited computational resources to contribute meaningfully to the field of language modelling. We introduce an experimental protocol that enables model comparisons based on equivalent compute, measured in accelerator hours. The number of tokens on which a model is trained is defined by the model's throughput and the chosen compute class. Notably, this approach avoids constraints on critical hyperparameters which affect total parameters or floating-point operations. For evaluation, we pre-process an existing large, diverse, and high-quality dataset of books that surpasses existing academic benchmarks in quality, diversity, and document length. On it, we compare methods based on their empirical scaling trends which are estimated through experiments at various levels of compute. This work also provides two baseline models: a feed-forward model derived from the GPT-2 architecture and a recurrent model in the form of a novel LSTM with ten-fold throughput. While the GPT baseline achieves better perplexity throughout all our levels of compute, our LSTM baseline exhibits a predictable and more favourable scaling law. This is due to the improved throughput and the need for fewer training tokens to achieve the same decrease in test perplexity. Extrapolating the scaling laws leads of both models results in an intersection at roughly 50,000 accelerator hours. We hope this work can serve as the foundation for meaningful and reproducible language modelling research.

  • 8 authors
·
Sep 20, 2023 1

FlashRNN: Optimizing Traditional RNNs on Modern Hardware

While Transformers and other sequence-parallelizable neural network architectures seem like the current state of the art in sequence modeling, they specifically lack state-tracking capabilities. These are important for time-series tasks and logical reasoning. Traditional RNNs like LSTMs and GRUs, as well as modern variants like sLSTM do have these capabilities at the cost of strictly sequential processing. While this is often seen as a strong limitation, we show how fast these networks can get with our hardware-optimization FlashRNN in Triton and CUDA, optimizing kernels to the register level on modern GPUs. We extend traditional RNNs with a parallelization variant that processes multiple RNNs of smaller hidden state in parallel, similar to the head-wise processing in Transformers. To enable flexibility on different GPU variants, we introduce a new optimization framework for hardware-internal cache sizes, memory and compute handling. It models the hardware in a setting using polyhedral-like constraints, including the notion of divisibility. This speeds up the solution process in our ConstrINT library for general integer constraint satisfaction problems (integer CSPs). We show that our kernels can achieve 50x speed-ups over a vanilla PyTorch implementation and allow 40x larger hidden sizes compared to our Triton implementation. Our open-source kernels and the optimization library are released here to boost research in the direction of state-tracking enabled RNNs and sequence modeling: https://github.com/NX-AI/flashrnn

  • 3 authors
·
Dec 10, 2024

Stock Price Prediction Using Machine Learning and LSTM-Based Deep Learning Models

Prediction of stock prices has been an important area of research for a long time. While supporters of the efficient market hypothesis believe that it is impossible to predict stock prices accurately, there are formal propositions demonstrating that accurate modeling and designing of appropriate variables may lead to models using which stock prices and stock price movement patterns can be very accurately predicted. In this work, we propose an approach of hybrid modeling for stock price prediction building different machine learning and deep learning-based models. For the purpose of our study, we have used NIFTY 50 index values of the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India, during the period December 29, 2014 till July 31, 2020. We have built eight regression models using the training data that consisted of NIFTY 50 index records during December 29, 2014 till December 28, 2018. Using these regression models, we predicted the open values of NIFTY 50 for the period December 31, 2018 till July 31, 2020. We, then, augment the predictive power of our forecasting framework by building four deep learning-based regression models using long-and short-term memory (LSTM) networks with a novel approach of walk-forward validation. We exploit the power of LSTM regression models in forecasting the future NIFTY 50 open values using four different models that differ in their architecture and in the structure of their input data. Extensive results are presented on various metrics for the all the regression models. The results clearly indicate that the LSTM-based univariate model that uses one-week prior data as input for predicting the next week open value of the NIFTY 50 time series is the most accurate model.

  • 3 authors
·
Sep 20, 2020

Mispronunciation Detection of Basic Quranic Recitation Rules using Deep Learning

In Islam, readers must apply a set of pronunciation rules called Tajweed rules to recite the Quran in the same way that the angel Jibrael taught the Prophet, Muhammad. The traditional process of learning the correct application of these rules requires a human who must have a license and great experience to detect mispronunciation. Due to the increasing number of Muslims around the world, the number of Tajweed teachers is not enough nowadays for daily recitation practice for every Muslim. Therefore, lots of work has been done for automatic Tajweed rules' mispronunciation detection to help readers recite Quran correctly in an easier way and shorter time than traditional learning ways. All previous works have three common problems. First, most of them focused on machine learning algorithms only. Second, they used private datasets with no benchmark to compare with. Third, they did not take into consideration the sequence of input data optimally, although the speech signal is time series. To overcome these problems, we proposed a solution that consists of Mel-Frequency Cepstral Coefficient (MFCC) features with Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks which use the time series, to detect mispronunciation in Tajweed rules. In addition, our experiments were performed on a public dataset, the QDAT dataset, which contains more than 1500 voices of the correct and incorrect recitation of three Tajweed rules (Separate stretching , Tight Noon , and Hide ). To the best of our knowledge, the QDAT dataset has not been used by any research paper yet. We compared the performance of the proposed LSTM model with traditional machine learning algorithms used in SoTA. The LSTM model with time series showed clear superiority over traditional machine learning. The accuracy achieved by LSTM on the QDAT dataset was 96%, 95%, and 96% for the three rules (Separate stretching, Tight Noon, and Hide), respectively.

  • 2 authors
·
May 10, 2023

A Time Series Analysis-Based Stock Price Prediction Using Machine Learning and Deep Learning Models

Prediction of future movement of stock prices has always been a challenging task for the researchers. While the advocates of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) believe that it is impossible to design any predictive framework that can accurately predict the movement of stock prices, there are seminal work in the literature that have clearly demonstrated that the seemingly random movement patterns in the time series of a stock price can be predicted with a high level of accuracy. Design of such predictive models requires choice of appropriate variables, right transformation methods of the variables, and tuning of the parameters of the models. In this work, we present a very robust and accurate framework of stock price prediction that consists of an agglomeration of statistical, machine learning and deep learning models. We use the daily stock price data, collected at five minutes interval of time, of a very well known company that is listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India. The granular data is aggregated into three slots in a day, and the aggregated data is used for building and training the forecasting models. We contend that the agglomerative approach of model building that uses a combination of statistical, machine learning, and deep learning approaches, can very effectively learn from the volatile and random movement patterns in a stock price data. We build eight classification and eight regression models based on statistical and machine learning approaches. In addition to these models, a deep learning regression model using a long-and-short-term memory (LSTM) network is also built. Extensive results have been presented on the performance of these models, and the results are critically analyzed.

  • 2 authors
·
Apr 17, 2020

Test-Time Training Done Right

Test-Time Training (TTT) models context dependencies by adapting part of the model's weights (referred to as fast weights) during inference. This fast weight, akin to recurrent states in RNNs, stores temporary memories of past tokens in the current sequence. Existing TTT methods struggled to show effectiveness in handling long-context data, due to their inefficiency on modern GPUs. The TTT layers in many of these approaches operate with extremely low FLOPs utilization (often <5%) because they deliberately apply small online minibatch sizes (e.g., updating fast weights every 16 or 64 tokens). Moreover, a small minibatch implies fine-grained block-wise causal dependencies in the data, unsuitable for data beyond 1D ordered sequences, like sets or N-dimensional grids such as images or videos. In contrast, we pursue the opposite direction by using an extremely large chunk update, ranging from 2K to 1M tokens across tasks of varying modalities, which we refer to as Large Chunk Test-Time Training (LaCT). It improves hardware utilization by orders of magnitude, and more importantly, facilitates scaling of nonlinear state size (up to 40% of model parameters), hence substantially improving state capacity, all without requiring cumbersome and error-prone kernel implementations. It also allows easy integration of sophisticated optimizers, e.g. Muon for online updates. We validate our approach across diverse modalities and tasks, including novel view synthesis with image set, language models, and auto-regressive video diffusion. Our approach can scale up to 14B-parameter AR video diffusion model on sequences up to 56K tokens. In our longest sequence experiment, we perform novel view synthesis with 1 million context length. We hope this work will inspire and accelerate new research in the field of long-context modeling and test-time training. Website: https://tianyuanzhang.com/projects/ttt-done-right

  • 9 authors
·
May 29

TiRex: Zero-Shot Forecasting Across Long and Short Horizons with Enhanced In-Context Learning

In-context learning, the ability of large language models to perform tasks using only examples provided in the prompt, has recently been adapted for time series forecasting. This paradigm enables zero-shot prediction, where past values serve as context for forecasting future values, making powerful forecasting tools accessible to non-experts and increasing the performance when training data are scarce. Most existing zero-shot forecasting approaches rely on transformer architectures, which, despite their success in language, often fall short of expectations in time series forecasting, where recurrent models like LSTMs frequently have the edge. Conversely, while LSTMs are well-suited for time series modeling due to their state-tracking capabilities, they lack strong in-context learning abilities. We introduce TiRex that closes this gap by leveraging xLSTM, an enhanced LSTM with competitive in-context learning skills. Unlike transformers, state-space models, or parallelizable RNNs such as RWKV, TiRex retains state-tracking, a critical property for long-horizon forecasting. To further facilitate its state-tracking ability, we propose a training-time masking strategy called CPM. TiRex sets a new state of the art in zero-shot time series forecasting on the HuggingFace benchmarks GiftEval and Chronos-ZS, outperforming significantly larger models including TabPFN-TS (Prior Labs), Chronos Bolt (Amazon), TimesFM (Google), and Moirai (Salesforce) across both short- and long-term forecasts.

  • 6 authors
·
May 29

Google's Neural Machine Translation System: Bridging the Gap between Human and Machine Translation

Neural Machine Translation (NMT) is an end-to-end learning approach for automated translation, with the potential to overcome many of the weaknesses of conventional phrase-based translation systems. Unfortunately, NMT systems are known to be computationally expensive both in training and in translation inference. Also, most NMT systems have difficulty with rare words. These issues have hindered NMT's use in practical deployments and services, where both accuracy and speed are essential. In this work, we present GNMT, Google's Neural Machine Translation system, which attempts to address many of these issues. Our model consists of a deep LSTM network with 8 encoder and 8 decoder layers using attention and residual connections. To improve parallelism and therefore decrease training time, our attention mechanism connects the bottom layer of the decoder to the top layer of the encoder. To accelerate the final translation speed, we employ low-precision arithmetic during inference computations. To improve handling of rare words, we divide words into a limited set of common sub-word units ("wordpieces") for both input and output. This method provides a good balance between the flexibility of "character"-delimited models and the efficiency of "word"-delimited models, naturally handles translation of rare words, and ultimately improves the overall accuracy of the system. Our beam search technique employs a length-normalization procedure and uses a coverage penalty, which encourages generation of an output sentence that is most likely to cover all the words in the source sentence. On the WMT'14 English-to-French and English-to-German benchmarks, GNMT achieves competitive results to state-of-the-art. Using a human side-by-side evaluation on a set of isolated simple sentences, it reduces translation errors by an average of 60% compared to Google's phrase-based production system.

  • 31 authors
·
Sep 26, 2016

AntiPhishStack: LSTM-based Stacked Generalization Model for Optimized Phishing URL Detection

The escalating reliance on revolutionary online web services has introduced heightened security risks, with persistent challenges posed by phishing despite extensive security measures. Traditional phishing systems, reliant on machine learning and manual features, struggle with evolving tactics. Recent advances in deep learning offer promising avenues for tackling novel phishing challenges and malicious URLs. This paper introduces a two-phase stack generalized model named AntiPhishStack, designed to detect phishing sites. The model leverages the learning of URLs and character-level TF-IDF features symmetrically, enhancing its ability to combat emerging phishing threats. In Phase I, features are trained on a base machine learning classifier, employing K-fold cross-validation for robust mean prediction. Phase II employs a two-layered stacked-based LSTM network with five adaptive optimizers for dynamic compilation, ensuring premier prediction on these features. Additionally, the symmetrical predictions from both phases are optimized and integrated to train a meta-XGBoost classifier, contributing to a final robust prediction. The significance of this work lies in advancing phishing detection with AntiPhishStack, operating without prior phishing-specific feature knowledge. Experimental validation on two benchmark datasets, comprising benign and phishing or malicious URLs, demonstrates the model's exceptional performance, achieving a notable 96.04% accuracy compared to existing studies. This research adds value to the ongoing discourse on symmetry and asymmetry in information security and provides a forward-thinking solution for enhancing network security in the face of evolving cyber threats.

  • 5 authors
·
Jan 16, 2024

HMT: Hierarchical Memory Transformer for Long Context Language Processing

Transformer-based large language models (LLM) have been widely used in language processing applications. However, most of them restrict the context window that permits the model to attend to every token in the inputs. Previous works in recurrent models can memorize past tokens to enable unlimited context and maintain effectiveness. However, they have "flat" memory architectures, which have limitations in selecting and filtering information. Since humans are good at learning and self-adjustment, we speculate that imitating brain memory hierarchy is beneficial for model memorization. We propose the Hierarchical Memory Transformer (HMT), a novel framework that enables and improves models' long-context processing ability by imitating human memorization behavior. Leveraging memory-augmented segment-level recurrence, we organize the memory hierarchy by preserving tokens from early input token segments, passing memory embeddings along the sequence, and recalling relevant information from history. Evaluating general language modeling (Wikitext-103, PG-19) and question-answering tasks (PubMedQA), we show that HMT steadily improves the long-context processing ability of context-constrained and long-context models. With an additional 0.5% - 2% of parameters, HMT can easily plug in and augment future LLMs to handle long context effectively. Our code is open-sourced on Github: https://github.com/OswaldHe/HMT-pytorch.

  • 5 authors
·
May 9, 2024

Augmenting LLMs for General Time Series Understanding and Prediction

Time series data is fundamental to decision-making in many crucial domains including healthcare, finance, and environmental science. However, analyzing this data often requires incorporating unstructured contextual information, answering domain-specific questions, and generating natural language explanations -- capabilities that traditional time series models lack due to their inability to process text. While Large Language Models (LLMs) excel at contextual reasoning and knowledge integration, they struggle with numerical time series due to inefficient text-based representations and limited exposure to temporal data during pretraining. We address this gap by augmenting an LLM with specialized time series perception through a patch-based encoder-decoder architecture. We train this Time Series-augmented LLM (TsLLM) on a large corpus of over 2 million interleaved time series and text examples spanning diverse analysis tasks: forecasting with contextual information, time series question-answering, pattern explanation, classification with natural language outputs, and report generation. This training enables TsLLM to leverage both its language understanding and newly acquired temporal reasoning capabilities. While not designed to surpass specialized models on traditional benchmarks, TsLLM demonstrates strong performance on tasks requiring the integration of time series analysis with natural language -- capabilities that existing approaches cannot provide. Our work establishes a new paradigm for time series analysis that bridges numerical computation and natural language understanding, democratizing access to sophisticated temporal reasoning through natural language interaction.

  • 4 authors
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Oct 1

SeqDialN: Sequential Visual Dialog Networks in Joint Visual-Linguistic Representation Space

In this work, we formulate a visual dialog as an information flow in which each piece of information is encoded with the joint visual-linguistic representation of a single dialog round. Based on this formulation, we consider the visual dialog task as a sequence problem consisting of ordered visual-linguistic vectors. For featurization, we use a Dense Symmetric Co-Attention network as a lightweight vison-language joint representation generator to fuse multimodal features (i.e., image and text), yielding better computation and data efficiencies. For inference, we propose two Sequential Dialog Networks (SeqDialN): the first uses LSTM for information propagation (IP) and the second uses a modified Transformer for multi-step reasoning (MR). Our architecture separates the complexity of multimodal feature fusion from that of inference, which allows simpler design of the inference engine. IP based SeqDialN is our baseline with a simple 2-layer LSTM design that achieves decent performance. MR based SeqDialN, on the other hand, recurrently refines the semantic question/history representations through the self-attention stack of Transformer and produces promising results on the visual dialog task. On VisDial v1.0 test-std dataset, our best single generative SeqDialN achieves 62.54% NDCG and 48.63% MRR; our ensemble generative SeqDialN achieves 63.78% NDCG and 49.98% MRR, which set a new state-of-the-art generative visual dialog model. We fine-tune discriminative SeqDialN with dense annotations and boost the performance up to 72.41% NDCG and 55.11% MRR. In this work, we discuss the extensive experiments we have conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of our model components. We also provide visualization for the reasoning process from the relevant conversation rounds and discuss our fine-tuning methods. Our code is available at https://github.com/xiaoxiaoheimei/SeqDialN

  • 1 authors
·
Aug 2, 2020

A New Data Representation Based on Training Data Characteristics to Extract Drug Named-Entity in Medical Text

One essential task in information extraction from the medical corpus is drug name recognition. Compared with text sources come from other domains, the medical text is special and has unique characteristics. In addition, the medical text mining poses more challenges, e.g., more unstructured text, the fast growing of new terms addition, a wide range of name variation for the same drug. The mining is even more challenging due to the lack of labeled dataset sources and external knowledge, as well as multiple token representations for a single drug name that is more common in the real application setting. Although many approaches have been proposed to overwhelm the task, some problems remained with poor F-score performance (less than 0.75). This paper presents a new treatment in data representation techniques to overcome some of those challenges. We propose three data representation techniques based on the characteristics of word distribution and word similarities as a result of word embedding training. The first technique is evaluated with the standard NN model, i.e., MLP (Multi-Layer Perceptrons). The second technique involves two deep network classifiers, i.e., DBN (Deep Belief Networks), and SAE (Stacked Denoising Encoders). The third technique represents the sentence as a sequence that is evaluated with a recurrent NN model, i.e., LSTM (Long Short Term Memory). In extracting the drug name entities, the third technique gives the best F-score performance compared to the state of the art, with its average F-score being 0.8645.

  • 3 authors
·
Oct 6, 2016

Learning to Chain Operations by Routing Information Through a Global Workspace

We present a model inspired by the Global Workspace Theory that integrates specialized modules to perform a sequential reasoning task. A controller selectively routes information between modules through the workspace using a gating mechanism. This approach allows the model to chain operations by iteratively broadcasting information between specialized domains, mimicking System-2 reasoning. We evaluate the model's performance on a simple addition task, where two addends must be summed. The task can be solved by routing information sequentially through an Input module, an Increment module (multiple times), and finally an Output module. We consider two implementations of this system with increasing complexity. First, using hand-designed modules operating on one-hot digit representations, the controller (a LSTM recurrent network) learns to select the appropriate modules (input, increment, output) in the appropriate sequence. Second, we replace the hand-designed modules with learned representation modules for MNIST images and an increment module trained on the task objectives; here again, the controller learns the appropriate sequential module selection to solve the task. Finally, we show that the Global Workspace model, while having fewer parameters, outperforms LSTMs and Transformers when tested on unseen addition operations (both interpolations and extrapolations of addition operations seen during training). Our results highlight the potential of architectures inspired by the Global Workspace Theory to enhance deep learning's reasoning capabilities.

  • 2 authors
·
Feb 28

ATLAS: Learning to Optimally Memorize the Context at Test Time

Transformers have been established as the most popular backbones in sequence modeling, mainly due to their effectiveness in in-context retrieval tasks and the ability to learn at scale. Their quadratic memory and time complexity, however, bound their applicability in longer sequences and so has motivated researchers to explore effective alternative architectures such as modern recurrent neural networks (a.k.a long-term recurrent memory module). Despite their recent success in diverse downstream tasks, they struggle in tasks that requires long context understanding and extrapolation to longer sequences. We observe that these shortcomings come from three disjoint aspects in their design: (1) limited memory capacity that is bounded by the architecture of memory and feature mapping of the input; (2) online nature of update, i.e., optimizing the memory only with respect to the last input; and (3) less expressive management of their fixed-size memory. To enhance all these three aspects, we present ATLAS, a long-term memory module with high capacity that learns to memorize the context by optimizing the memory based on the current and past tokens, overcoming the online nature of long-term memory models. Building on this insight, we present a new family of Transformer-like architectures, called DeepTransformers, that are strict generalizations of the original Transformer architecture. Our experimental results on language modeling, common-sense reasoning, recall-intensive, and long-context understanding tasks show that ATLAS surpasses the performance of Transformers and recent linear recurrent models. ATLAS further improves the long context performance of Titans, achieving +80\% accuracy in 10M context length of BABILong benchmark.

  • 8 authors
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May 29 3

Just read twice: closing the recall gap for recurrent language models

Recurrent large language models that compete with Transformers in language modeling perplexity are emerging at a rapid rate (e.g., Mamba, RWKV). Excitingly, these architectures use a constant amount of memory during inference. However, due to the limited memory, recurrent LMs cannot recall and use all the information in long contexts leading to brittle in-context learning (ICL) quality. A key challenge for efficient LMs is selecting what information to store versus discard. In this work, we observe the order in which information is shown to the LM impacts the selection difficulty. To formalize this, we show that the hardness of information recall reduces to the hardness of a problem called set disjointness (SD), a quintessential problem in communication complexity that requires a streaming algorithm (e.g., recurrent model) to decide whether inputted sets are disjoint. We empirically and theoretically show that the recurrent memory required to solve SD changes with set order, i.e., whether the smaller set appears first in-context. Our analysis suggests, to mitigate the reliance on data order, we can put information in the right order in-context or process prompts non-causally. Towards that end, we propose: (1) JRT-Prompt, where context gets repeated multiple times in the prompt, effectively showing the model all data orders. This gives 11.0 pm 1.3 points of improvement, averaged across 16 recurrent LMs and the 6 ICL tasks, with 11.9times higher throughput than FlashAttention-2 for generation prefill (length 32k, batch size 16, NVidia H100). We then propose (2) JRT-RNN, which uses non-causal prefix-linear-attention to process prompts and provides 99% of Transformer quality at 360M params., 30B tokens and 96% at 1.3B params., 50B tokens on average across the tasks, with 19.2times higher throughput for prefill than FA2.

  • 9 authors
·
Jul 7, 2024

pLSTM: parallelizable Linear Source Transition Mark networks

Modern recurrent architectures, such as xLSTM and Mamba, have recently challenged the Transformer in language modeling. However, their structure constrains their applicability to sequences only or requires processing multi-dimensional data structures, such as images or molecular graphs, in a pre-defined sequential order. In contrast, Multi-Dimensional RNNs (MDRNNs) are well suited for data with a higher level structure, like 2D grids, trees, and directed acyclic graphs (DAGs). In this work, we extend the notion of multi-dimensionality to linear RNNs. We introduce parallelizable Linear Source Transition Mark networks (pLSTMs) using Source, Transition, and Mark gates that act on the line graph of a general DAG. This enables parallelization in analogy to parallel associative scans and the chunkwise-recurrent form of sequential linear RNNs, but for DAGs. For regular grids (1D and 2D), like images, this scheme can be efficiently implemented using einsum operations, concatenations, and padding in logarithmic time. pLSTMs tackle the vanishing/exploding activation/gradient problem for long distances in DAGs via two distinct modes: a directed propagation mode (P-mode) and a diffusive distribution mode (D-mode). To showcase the long-range capabilities of pLSTM, we introduce arrow-pointing extrapolation as a synthetic computer vision task that contains long-distance directional information. We demonstrate that pLSTMs generalize well to larger image sizes, whereas Transformers struggle to extrapolate. On established molecular graph and computer vision benchmarks, pLSTMs also show strong performance. Code and Datasets are available at: https://github.com/ml-jku/plstm_experiments.

  • 5 authors
·
Jun 13 2

OpenTSLM: Time-Series Language Models for Reasoning over Multivariate Medical Text- and Time-Series Data

LLMs have emerged as powerful tools for interpreting multimodal data. In medicine, they hold particular promise for synthesizing large volumes of clinical information into actionable insights and digital health applications. Yet, a major limitation remains their inability to handle time series. To overcome this gap, we present OpenTSLM, a family of Time Series Language Models (TSLMs) created by integrating time series as a native modality to pretrained LLMs, enabling reasoning over multiple time series of any length. We investigate two architectures for OpenTSLM. The first, OpenTSLM-SoftPrompt, models time series implicitly by concatenating learnable time series tokens with text tokens via soft prompting. Although parameter-efficient, we hypothesize that explicit time series modeling scales better and outperforms implicit approaches. We thus introduce OpenTSLM-Flamingo, which integrates time series with text via cross-attention. We benchmark both variants against baselines that treat time series as text tokens or plots, across a suite of text-time-series Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning tasks. We introduce three datasets: HAR-CoT, Sleep-CoT, and ECG-QA-CoT. Across all, OpenTSLM models outperform baselines, reaching 69.9 F1 in sleep staging and 65.4 in HAR, compared to 9.05 and 52.2 for finetuned text-only models. Notably, even 1B-parameter OpenTSLM models surpass GPT-4o (15.47 and 2.95). OpenTSLM-Flamingo matches OpenTSLM-SoftPrompt in performance and outperforms on longer sequences, while maintaining stable memory requirements. By contrast, SoftPrompt grows exponentially in memory with sequence length, requiring around 110 GB compared to 40 GB VRAM when training on ECG-QA with LLaMA-3B. Expert reviews by clinicians find strong reasoning capabilities exhibited by OpenTSLMs on ECG-QA. To facilitate further research, we provide all code, datasets, and models open-source.

Your LLM Knows the Future: Uncovering Its Multi-Token Prediction Potential

Autoregressive language models are constrained by their inherently sequential nature, generating one token at a time. This paradigm limits inference speed and parallelism, especially during later stages of generation when the direction and semantics of text are relatively certain. In this work, we propose a novel framework that leverages the inherent knowledge of vanilla autoregressive language models about future tokens, combining techniques to realize this potential and enable simultaneous prediction of multiple subsequent tokens. Our approach introduces several key innovations: (1) a masked-input formulation where multiple future tokens are jointly predicted from a common prefix; (2) a gated LoRA formulation that preserves the original LLM's functionality, while equipping it for multi-token prediction; (3) a lightweight, learnable sampler module that generates coherent sequences from the predicted future tokens; (4) a set of auxiliary training losses, including a consistency loss, to enhance the coherence and accuracy of jointly generated tokens; and (5) a speculative generation strategy that expands tokens quadratically in the future while maintaining high fidelity. Our method achieves significant speedups through supervised fine-tuning on pretrained models. For example, it generates code and math nearly 5x faster, and improves general chat and knowledge tasks by almost 2.5x. These gains come without any loss in quality.

  • 7 authors
·
Jul 15