Daily Papers

The quality of face images significantly influences the performance of underlying face recognition algorithms. Face image quality assessment (FIQA) estimates the utility of the captured image in achieving reliable and accurate recognition performance. In this work, we propose a novel learning paradigm that learns internal network observations during the training process. Based on that, our proposed CR-FIQA uses this paradigm to estimate the face image quality of a sample by predicting its relative classifiability. This classifiability is measured based on the allocation of the training sample feature representation in angular space with respect to its class center and the nearest negative class center. We experimentally illustrate the correlation between the face image quality and the sample relative classifiability. As such property is only observable for the training dataset, we propose to learn this property from the training dataset and utilize it to predict the quality measure on unseen samples. This training is performed simultaneously while optimizing the class centers by an angular margin penalty-based softmax loss used for face recognition model training. Through extensive evaluation experiments on eight benchmarks and four face recognition models, we demonstrate the superiority of our proposed CR-FIQA over state-of-the-art (SOTA) FIQA algorithms.

Efficient real-world deployments of large language models (LLMs) rely on Key-Value (KV) caching for processing and generating long outputs, reducing the need for repetitive computation. For large contexts, Key-Value caches can take up tens of gigabytes of device memory, as they store vector representations for each token and layer. Recent work has shown that the cached vectors can be compressed through quantization, pruning or merging, but these techniques often compromise quality towards higher compression rates. In this work, we aim to improve Key & Value compression by exploiting two observations: 1) the inherent dependencies between keys and values across different layers, and 2) high-compression mechanisms for internal network states. We propose AQUA-KV, an adaptive quantization for Key-Value caches that relies on compact adapters to exploit existing dependencies between Keys and Values, and aims to "optimally" compress the information that cannot be predicted. AQUA-KV significantly improves compression rates, while maintaining high accuracy on state-of-the-art LLM families. On Llama 3.2 LLMs, we achieve near-lossless inference at 2-2.5 bits per value with under 1% relative error in perplexity and LongBench scores. AQUA-KV is one-shot, simple, and efficient: it can be calibrated on a single GPU within 1-6 hours, even for 70B models.

Graphs have often been used to answer questions about the interaction between real-world entities by taking advantage of their capacity to represent complex topologies. Complex networks are known to be graphs that capture such non-trivial topologies; they are able to represent human phenomena such as epidemic processes, the dynamics of populations, and the urbanization of cities. The investigation of complex networks has been extrapolated to many fields of science, with particular emphasis on computing techniques, including artificial intelligence. In such a case, the analysis of the interaction between entities of interest is transposed to the internal learning of algorithms, a paradigm whose investigation is able to expand the state of the art in Computer Science. By exploring this paradigm, this thesis puts together complex networks and machine learning techniques to improve the understanding of the human phenomena observed in pandemics, pendular migration, and street networks. Accordingly, we contribute with: (i) a new neural network architecture capable of modeling dynamic processes observed in spatial and temporal data with applications in epidemics propagation, weather forecasting, and patient monitoring in intensive care units; (ii) a machine-learning methodology for analyzing and predicting links in the scope of human mobility between all the cities of Brazil; and, (iii) techniques for identifying inconsistencies in the urban planning of cities while tracking the most influential vertices, with applications over Brazilian and worldwide cities. We obtained results sustained by sound evidence of advances to the state of the art in artificial intelligence, rigorous formalisms, and ample experimentation. Our findings rely upon real-world applications in a range of domains, demonstrating the applicability of our methodologies.

Interference is ubiquitous when conducting causal experiments over networks. Except for certain network structures, causal inference on the network in the presence of interference is difficult due to the entanglement between the treatment assignments and the interference levels. In this article, we conduct causal inference under interference on an observed, sparse but connected network, and we propose a novel design of experiments based on an independent set. Compared to conventional designs, the independent-set design focuses on an independent subset of data and controls their interference exposures through the assignments to the rest (auxiliary set). We provide a lower bound on the size of the independent set from a greedy algorithm , and justify the theoretical performance of estimators under the proposed design. Our approach is capable of estimating both spillover effects and treatment effects. We justify its superiority over conventional methods and illustrate the empirical performance through simulations.

Given a node-attributed graph, and a graph task (link prediction or node classification), can we tell if a graph neural network (GNN) will perform well? More specifically, do the graph structure and the node features carry enough usable information for the task? Our goals are (1) to develop a fast tool to measure how much information is in the graph structure and in the node features, and (2) to exploit the information to solve the task, if there is enough. We propose NetInfoF, a framework including NetInfoF_Probe and NetInfoF_Act, for the measurement and the exploitation of network usable information (NUI), respectively. Given a graph data, NetInfoF_Probe measures NUI without any model training, and NetInfoF_Act solves link prediction and node classification, while two modules share the same backbone. In summary, NetInfoF has following notable advantages: (a) General, handling both link prediction and node classification; (b) Principled, with theoretical guarantee and closed-form solution; (c) Effective, thanks to the proposed adjustment to node similarity; (d) Scalable, scaling linearly with the input size. In our carefully designed synthetic datasets, NetInfoF correctly identifies the ground truth of NUI and is the only method being robust to all graph scenarios. Applied on real-world datasets, NetInfoF wins in 11 out of 12 times on link prediction compared to general GNN baselines.

Network embedding, which maps graphs to distributed representations, is a unified framework for various graph inference tasks. According to the topology properties (e.g., structural roles and community memberships of nodes) to be preserved, it can be categorized into the identity and position embedding. However, existing methods can only capture one type of property. Some approaches can support the inductive inference that generalizes the embedding model to new nodes or graphs but relies on the availability of attributes. Due to the complicated correlations between topology and attributes, it is unclear for some inductive methods which type of property they can capture. In this study, we explore a unified framework for the joint inductive inference of identity and position embeddings without attributes. An inductive random walk embedding (IRWE) method is proposed, which combines multiple attention units to handle the random walk on graph topology and simultaneously derives identity and position embeddings that are jointly optimized. In particular, we demonstrate that some random walk statistics can be informative features to characterize node identities and positions while supporting the inductive embedding inference. Experiments validate the superior performance of IRWE beyond various baselines for the transductive and inductive inference of identity and position embeddings.

Interpreting the inner function of neural networks is crucial for the trustworthy development and deployment of these black-box models. Prior interpretability methods focus on correlation-based measures to attribute model decisions to individual examples. However, these measures are susceptible to noise and spurious correlations encoded in the model during the training phase (e.g., biased inputs, model overfitting, or misspecification). Moreover, this process has proven to result in noisy and unstable attributions that prevent any transparent understanding of the model's behavior. In this paper, we develop a robust interventional-based method grounded by causal analysis to capture cause-effect mechanisms in pre-trained neural networks and their relation to the prediction. Our novel approach relies on path interventions to infer the causal mechanisms within hidden layers and isolate relevant and necessary information (to model prediction), avoiding noisy ones. The result is task-specific causal explanatory graphs that can audit model behavior and express the actual causes underlying its performance. We apply our method to vision models trained on classification tasks. On image classification tasks, we provide extensive quantitative experiments to show that our approach can capture more stable and faithful explanations than standard attribution-based methods. Furthermore, the underlying causal graphs reveal the neural interactions in the model, making it a valuable tool in other applications (e.g., model repair).

Learning causal structure from observational data often assumes that we observe independent and identically distributed (i.\,i.\,d) data. The traditional approach aims to find a graphical representation that encodes the same set of conditional independence relationships as those present in the observed distribution. It is known that under i.\,i.\,d assumption, even with infinite data, there is a limit to how fine-grained a causal structure we can identify. To overcome this limitation, recent work has explored using data originating from different, related environments to learn richer causal structure. These approaches implicitly rely on the independent causal mechanisms (ICM) principle, which postulates that the mechanism giving rise to an effect given its causes and the mechanism which generates the causes do not inform or influence each other. Thus, components of the causal model can independently change from environment to environment. Despite its wide application in machine learning and causal inference, there is a lack of statistical formalization of the ICM principle and how it enables identification of richer causal structures from grouped data. Here we present new causal de Finetti theorems which offer a first statistical formalization of ICM principle and show how causal structure identification is possible from exchangeable data. Our work provides theoretical justification for a broad range of techniques leveraging multi-environment data to learn causal structure.

Conventional surveillance systems for monitoring infectious diseases, such as influenza, face challenges due to shortage of skilled healthcare professionals, remoteness of communities and absence of communication infrastructures. Internet-based approaches for surveillance are appealing logistically as well as economically. Search engine queries and Twitter have been the primarily used data sources in such approaches. The aim of this study is to assess the predictive power of an alternative data source, Instagram. By using 317 weeks of publicly available data from Instagram, we trained several machine learning algorithms to both nowcast and forecast the number of official influenza-like illness incidents in Finland where population-wide official statistics about the weekly incidents are available. In addition to date and hashtag count features of online posts, we were able to utilize also the visual content of the posted images with the help of deep convolutional neural networks. Our best nowcasting model reached a mean absolute error of 11.33 incidents per week and a correlation coefficient of 0.963 on the test data. Forecasting models for predicting 1 week and 2 weeks ahead showed statistical significance as well by reaching correlation coefficients of 0.903 and 0.862, respectively. This study demonstrates how social media and in particular, digital photographs shared in them, can be a valuable source of information for the field of infodemiology.

Despite their vast capabilities, Large Language Models (LLMs) often struggle with generating reliable outputs, frequently producing high-confidence inaccuracies known as hallucinations. Addressing this challenge, our research introduces InternalInspector, a novel framework designed to enhance confidence estimation in LLMs by leveraging contrastive learning on internal states including attention states, feed-forward states, and activation states of all layers. Unlike existing methods that primarily focus on the final activation state, InternalInspector conducts a comprehensive analysis across all internal states of every layer to accurately identify both correct and incorrect prediction processes. By benchmarking InternalInspector against existing confidence estimation methods across various natural language understanding and generation tasks, including factual question answering, commonsense reasoning, and reading comprehension, InternalInspector achieves significantly higher accuracy in aligning the estimated confidence scores with the correctness of the LLM's predictions and lower calibration error. Furthermore, InternalInspector excels at HaluEval, a hallucination detection benchmark, outperforming other internal-based confidence estimation methods in this task.

Modern enterprises generate vast streams of time series metrics when monitoring complex systems, known as observability data. Unlike conventional time series from domains such as weather, observability data are zero-inflated, highly stochastic, and exhibit minimal temporal structure. Despite their importance, observability datasets are underrepresented in public benchmarks due to proprietary restrictions. Existing datasets are often anonymized and normalized, removing scale information and limiting their use for tasks beyond forecasting, such as anomaly detection, root-cause analysis, and multi-modal reasoning. To address this gap, we introduce TelecomTS, a large-scale observability dataset derived from a 5G telecommunications network. TelecomTS features heterogeneous, de-anonymized covariates with explicit scale information and supports a suite of downstream tasks, including anomaly detection, root-cause analysis, and a question-answering benchmark requiring multi-modal reasoning. Benchmarking state-of-the-art time series, language, and reasoning models reveals that existing approaches struggle with the abrupt, noisy, and high-variance dynamics of observability data. Our experiments also underscore the importance of preserving covariates' absolute scale, emphasizing the need for foundation time series models that natively leverage scale information for practical observability applications.

With the overwhelming amount of data available both on and offline today, recommender systems have become much needed to help users find items tailored to their interests. When social network information exists there are methods that utilize this information to make better recommendations, however the methods are often clunky with complex architectures and training procedures. Furthermore many of the existing methods utilize graph neural networks which are notoriously difficult to train. To address this, we propose Socially-aware Temporally caUsal Decoder recommender sYstems (STUDY). STUDY does joint inference over groups of users who are adjacent in the social network graph using a single forward pass of a modified transformer decoder network. We test our method in a school-based educational content setting, using classroom structure to define social networks. Our method outperforms both social and sequential methods while maintaining the design simplicity of a single homogeneous network that models all interactions in the data. We also carry out ablation studies to understand the drivers of our performance gains and find that our model depends on leveraging a social network structure that effectively models the similarities in user behavior.

Large language models (LLMs) are expected to respond accurately but often exhibit deficient reasoning or generate hallucinatory content. To address these, studies prefixed with ``Self-'' such as Self-Consistency, Self-Improve, and Self-Refine have been initiated. They share a commonality: involving LLMs evaluating and updating itself to mitigate the issues. Nonetheless, these efforts lack a unified perspective on summarization, as existing surveys predominantly focus on categorization without examining the motivations behind these works. In this paper, we summarize a theoretical framework, termed Internal Consistency, which offers unified explanations for phenomena such as the lack of reasoning and the presence of hallucinations. Internal Consistency assesses the coherence among LLMs' latent layer, decoding layer, and response layer based on sampling methodologies. Expanding upon the Internal Consistency framework, we introduce a streamlined yet effective theoretical framework capable of mining Internal Consistency, named Self-Feedback. The Self-Feedback framework consists of two modules: Self-Evaluation and Self-Update. This framework has been employed in numerous studies. We systematically classify these studies by tasks and lines of work; summarize relevant evaluation methods and benchmarks; and delve into the concern, ``Does Self-Feedback Really Work?'' We propose several critical viewpoints, including the ``Hourglass Evolution of Internal Consistency'', ``Consistency Is (Almost) Correctness'' hypothesis, and ``The Paradox of Latent and Explicit Reasoning''. Furthermore, we outline promising directions for future research. We have open-sourced the experimental code, reference list, and statistical data, available at https://github.com/IAAR-Shanghai/ICSFSurvey.

Information flows by routes inside the network via mechanisms implemented in the model. These routes can be represented as graphs where nodes correspond to token representations and edges to operations inside the network. We automatically build these graphs in a top-down manner, for each prediction leaving only the most important nodes and edges. In contrast to the existing workflows relying on activation patching, we do this through attribution: this allows us to efficiently uncover existing circuits with just a single forward pass. Additionally, the applicability of our method is far beyond patching: we do not need a human to carefully design prediction templates, and we can extract information flow routes for any prediction (not just the ones among the allowed templates). As a result, we can talk about model behavior in general, for specific types of predictions, or different domains. We experiment with Llama 2 and show that the role of some attention heads is overall important, e.g. previous token heads and subword merging heads. Next, we find similarities in Llama 2 behavior when handling tokens of the same part of speech. Finally, we show that some model components can be specialized on domains such as coding or multilingual texts.

Network embedding has been intensively studied in the literature and widely used in various applications, such as link prediction and node classification. While previous work focus on the design of new algorithms or are tailored for various problem settings, the discussion of initialization strategies in the learning process is often missed. In this work, we address this important issue of initialization for network embedding that could dramatically improve the performance of the algorithms on both effectiveness and efficiency. Specifically, we first exploit the graph partition technique that divides the graph into several disjoint subsets, and then construct an abstract graph based on the partitions. We obtain the initialization of the embedding for each node in the graph by computing the network embedding on the abstract graph, which is much smaller than the input graph, and then propagating the embedding among the nodes in the input graph. With extensive experiments on various datasets, we demonstrate that our initialization technique significantly improves the performance of the state-of-the-art algorithms on the evaluations of link prediction and node classification by up to 7.76% and 8.74% respectively. Besides, we show that the technique of initialization reduces the running time of the state-of-the-arts by at least 20%.

Detecting intrusions in network traffic is a challenging task, particularly under limited supervision and constantly evolving attack patterns. While recent works have leveraged graph neural networks for network intrusion detection, they often decouple representation learning from anomaly detection, limiting the utility of the embeddings for identifying attacks. We propose GraphIDS, a self-supervised intrusion detection model that unifies these two stages by learning local graph representations of normal communication patterns through a masked autoencoder. An inductive graph neural network embeds each flow with its local topological context to capture typical network behavior, while a Transformer-based encoder-decoder reconstructs these embeddings, implicitly learning global co-occurrence patterns via self-attention without requiring explicit positional information. During inference, flows with unusually high reconstruction errors are flagged as potential intrusions. This end-to-end framework ensures that embeddings are directly optimized for the downstream task, facilitating the recognition of malicious traffic. On diverse NetFlow benchmarks, GraphIDS achieves up to 99.98% PR-AUC and 99.61% macro F1-score, outperforming baselines by 5-25 percentage points.

Graph-based deep learning methods have become popular tools to process collections of correlated time series. Differently from traditional multivariate forecasting methods, neural graph-based predictors take advantage of pairwise relationships by conditioning forecasts on a (possibly dynamic) graph spanning the time series collection. The conditioning can take the form of an architectural inductive bias on the neural forecasting architecture, resulting in a family of deep learning models called spatiotemporal graph neural networks. Such relational inductive biases enable the training of global forecasting models on large time-series collections, while at the same time localizing predictions w.r.t. each element in the set (i.e., graph nodes) by accounting for local correlations among them (i.e., graph edges). Indeed, recent theoretical and practical advances in graph neural networks and deep learning for time series forecasting make the adoption of such processing frameworks appealing and timely. However, most of the studies in the literature focus on proposing variations of existing neural architectures by taking advantage of modern deep learning practices, while foundational and methodological aspects have not been subject to systematic investigation. To fill the gap, this paper aims to introduce a comprehensive methodological framework that formalizes the forecasting problem and provides design principles for graph-based predictive models and methods to assess their performance. At the same time, together with an overview of the field, we provide design guidelines, recommendations, and best practices, as well as an in-depth discussion of open challenges and future research directions.

The problem of attributing a deep network's prediction to its input/base features is well-studied. We introduce the notion of conductance to extend the notion of attribution to the understanding the importance of hidden units. Informally, the conductance of a hidden unit of a deep network is the flow of attribution via this hidden unit. We use conductance to understand the importance of a hidden unit to the prediction for a specific input, or over a set of inputs. We evaluate the effectiveness of conductance in multiple ways, including theoretical properties, ablation studies, and a feature selection task. The empirical evaluations are done using the Inception network over ImageNet data, and a sentiment analysis network over reviews. In both cases, we demonstrate the effectiveness of conductance in identifying interesting insights about the internal workings of these networks.

Adapting to concept drift is a challenging task in machine learning, which is usually tackled using incremental learning techniques that periodically re-fit a learning model leveraging newly available data. A primary limitation of these techniques is their reliance on substantial amounts of data for retraining. The necessity of acquiring fresh data introduces temporal delays prior to retraining, potentially rendering the models inaccurate if a sudden concept drift occurs in-between two consecutive retrainings. In communication networks, such issue emerges when performing traffic forecasting following a~failure event: post-failure re-routing may induce a drastic shift in distribution and pattern of traffic data, thus requiring a timely model adaptation. In this work, we address this challenge for the problem of traffic forecasting and propose an approach that exploits adaptive learning algorithms, namely, liquid neural networks, which are capable of self-adaptation to abrupt changes in data patterns without requiring any retraining. Through extensive simulations of failure scenarios, we compare the predictive performance of our proposed approach to that of a reference method based on incremental learning. Experimental results show that our proposed approach outperforms incremental learning-based methods in situations where the shifts in traffic patterns are drastic.

Recovering causal relationships from data is an important problem. Using observational data, one can typically only recover causal graphs up to a Markov equivalence class and additional assumptions or interventional data are needed for complete recovery. In this work, under some standard assumptions, we study causal graph discovery via adaptive interventions with node-dependent interventional costs. For this setting, we show that no algorithm can achieve an approximation guarantee that is asymptotically better than linear in the number of vertices with respect to the verification number; a well-established benchmark for adaptive search algorithms. Motivated by this negative result, we define a new benchmark that captures the worst-case interventional cost for any search algorithm. Furthermore, with respect to this new benchmark, we provide adaptive search algorithms that achieve logarithmic approximations under various settings: atomic, bounded size interventions and generalized cost objectives.

Ensuring the reliability and availability of complex networked services demands effective root cause analysis (RCA) across cloud environments, data centers, and on-premises networks. Traditional RCA methods, which involve manual inspection of data sources such as logs and telemetry data, are often time-consuming and challenging for on-call engineers. While statistical inference methods have been employed to estimate the causality of network events, these approaches alone are similarly challenging and suffer from a lack of interpretability, making it difficult for engineers to understand the predictions made by black-box models. In this paper, we present RCACopilot, an advanced on-call system that combines statistical tests and large language model (LLM) reasoning to automate RCA across various network environments. RCACopilot gathers and synthesizes critical runtime diagnostic information, predicts the root cause of incidents, provides a clear explanatory narrative, and offers targeted action steps for engineers to resolve the issues. By utilizing LLM reasoning techniques and retrieval, RCACopilot delivers accurate and practical support for operators.

A graph homomorphism is a map between two graphs that preserves adjacency relations. We consider the problem of sampling a random graph homomorphism from a graph into a large network. We propose two complementary MCMC algorithms for sampling random graph homomorphisms and establish bounds on their mixing times and the concentration of their time averages. Based on our sampling algorithms, we propose a novel framework for network data analysis that circumvents some of the drawbacks in methods based on independent and neighborhood sampling. Various time averages of the MCMC trajectory give us various computable observables, including well-known ones such as homomorphism density and average clustering coefficient and their generalizations. Furthermore, we show that these network observables are stable with respect to a suitably renormalized cut distance between networks. We provide various examples and simulations demonstrating our framework through synthetic networks. We also demonstrate the performance of our framework on the tasks of network clustering and subgraph classification on the Facebook100 dataset and on Word Adjacency Networks of a set of classic novels.

We propose a novel framework that leverages LLMs for full causal graph discovery. While previous LLM-based methods have used a pairwise query approach, this requires a quadratic number of queries which quickly becomes impractical for larger causal graphs. In contrast, the proposed framework uses a breadth-first search (BFS) approach which allows it to use only a linear number of queries. We also show that the proposed method can easily incorporate observational data when available, to improve performance. In addition to being more time and data-efficient, the proposed framework achieves state-of-the-art results on real-world causal graphs of varying sizes. The results demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed method in discovering causal relationships, showcasing its potential for broad applicability in causal graph discovery tasks across different domains.

This work presents a systematic investigation into the latent knowledge encoded within Network Foundation Models (NFMs) that focuses on hidden representations analysis rather than pure downstream task performance. Different from existing efforts, we analyze the models through a three-part evaluation: Embedding Geometry Analysis to assess representation space utilization, Metric Alignment Assessment to measure correspondence with domain-expert features, and Causal Sensitivity Testing to evaluate robustness to protocol perturbations. Using five diverse network datasets spanning controlled and real-world environments, we evaluate four state-of-the-art NFMs, revealing that they all exhibit significant anisotropy, inconsistent feature sensitivity patterns, an inability to separate the high-level context, payload dependency, and other properties. Our work identifies numerous limitations across all models and demonstrates that addressing them can significantly improve model performance (by up to +0.35 F_1 score without architectural changes).

Every day, humans perceive objects and communicate these perceptions through various channels. In this paper, we present a computational model designed to track and simulate the perception of objects, as well as their representations as conveyed in communication. We delineate two fundamental components of our internal representation, termed "observed" and "seen", which we correlate with established concepts in computer vision, namely encoding and decoding. These components are integrated into semiotic networks, which simulate perceptual inference of object perception and human communication. Our model of object perception by a person allows us to define object perception by {\em a network}. We demonstrate this with an example of an image baseline classifier by constructing a new network that includes the baseline classifier and an additional layer. This layer produces the images "perceived" by the entire network, transforming it into a perceptualized image classifier. This facilitates visualization of the acquired network. Within our network, the image representations become more efficient for classification tasks when they are assembled and randomized. In our experiments, the perceptualized network outperformed the baseline classifier on MNIST training databases consisting of a restricted number of images. Our model is not limited to persons and can be applied to any system featuring a loop involving the processing from "internal" to "external" representations.

Random walks are widely used for mining networks due to the computational efficiency of computing them. For instance, graph representation learning learns a d-dimensional embedding space, so that the nodes that tend to co-occur on random walks (a proxy of being in the same network neighborhood) are close in the embedding space. Specific local network topology (i.e., structure) influences the co-occurrence of nodes on random walks, so random walks of limited length capture only partial topological information, hence diminishing the performance of downstream methods. We explicitly capture all topological neighborhood information and improve performance by introducing orbit adjacencies that quantify the adjacencies of two nodes as co-occurring on a given pair of graphlet orbits, which are symmetric positions on graphlets (small, connected, non-isomorphic, induced subgraphs of a large network). Importantly, we mathematically prove that random walks on up to k nodes capture only a subset of all the possible orbit adjacencies for up to k-node graphlets. Furthermore, we enable orbit adjacency-based analysis of networks by developing an efficient GRaphlet-orbit ADjacency COunter (GRADCO), which exhaustively computes all 28 orbit adjacency matrices for up to four-node graphlets. Note that four-node graphlets suffice, because real networks are usually small-world. In large networks on around 20,000 nodes, GRADCOcomputesthe28matricesinminutes. Onsixrealnetworksfromvarious domains, we compare the performance of node-label predictors obtained by using the network embeddings based on our orbit adjacencies to those based on random walks. We find that orbit adjacencies, which include those unseen by random walks, outperform random walk-based adjacencies, demonstrating the importance of the inclusion of the topological neighborhood information that is unseen by random walks.

In this paper, we propose REASON, a novel framework that enables the automatic discovery of both intra-level (i.e., within-network) and inter-level (i.e., across-network) causal relationships for root cause localization. REASON consists of Topological Causal Discovery and Individual Causal Discovery. The Topological Causal Discovery component aims to model the fault propagation in order to trace back to the root causes. To achieve this, we propose novel hierarchical graph neural networks to construct interdependent causal networks by modeling both intra-level and inter-level non-linear causal relations. Based on the learned interdependent causal networks, we then leverage random walks with restarts to model the network propagation of a system fault. The Individual Causal Discovery component focuses on capturing abrupt change patterns of a single system entity. This component examines the temporal patterns of each entity's metric data (i.e., time series), and estimates its likelihood of being a root cause based on the Extreme Value theory. Combining the topological and individual causal scores, the top K system entities are identified as root causes. Extensive experiments on three real-world datasets with case studies demonstrate the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed framework.

Enterprises and organizations are faced with potential threats from insider employees that may lead to serious consequences. Previous studies on insider threat detection (ITD) mainly focus on detecting abnormal users or abnormal time periods (e.g., a week or a day). However, a user may have hundreds of thousands of activities in the log, and even within a day there may exist thousands of activities for a user, requiring a high investigation budget to verify abnormal users or activities given the detection results. On the other hand, existing works are mainly post-hoc methods rather than real-time detection, which can not report insider threats in time before they cause loss. In this paper, we conduct the first study towards real-time ITD at activity level, and present a fine-grained and efficient framework LAN. Specifically, LAN simultaneously learns the temporal dependencies within an activity sequence and the relationships between activities across sequences with graph structure learning. Moreover, to mitigate the data imbalance problem in ITD, we propose a novel hybrid prediction loss, which integrates self-supervision signals from normal activities and supervision signals from abnormal activities into a unified loss for anomaly detection. We evaluate the performance of LAN on two widely used datasets, i.e., CERT r4.2 and CERT r5.2. Extensive and comparative experiments demonstrate the superiority of LAN, outperforming 9 state-of-the-art baselines by at least 9.92% and 6.35% in AUC for real-time ITD on CERT r4.2 and r5.2, respectively. Moreover, LAN can be also applied to post-hoc ITD, surpassing 8 competitive baselines by at least 7.70% and 4.03% in AUC on two datasets. Finally, the ablation study, parameter analysis, and compatibility analysis evaluate the impact of each module and hyper-parameter in LAN. The source code can be obtained from https://github.com/Li1Neo/LAN.

Mechanistic interpretability seeks to understand the internal mechanisms of machine learning models, where localization -- identifying the important model components -- is a key step. Activation patching, also known as causal tracing or interchange intervention, is a standard technique for this task (Vig et al., 2020), but the literature contains many variants with little consensus on the choice of hyperparameters or methodology. In this work, we systematically examine the impact of methodological details in activation patching, including evaluation metrics and corruption methods. In several settings of localization and circuit discovery in language models, we find that varying these hyperparameters could lead to disparate interpretability results. Backed by empirical observations, we give conceptual arguments for why certain metrics or methods may be preferred. Finally, we provide recommendations for the best practices of activation patching going forwards.

Networks provide a powerful formalism for modeling complex systems by using a model of pairwise interactions. But much of the structure within these systems involves interactions that take place among more than two nodes at once; for example, communication within a group rather than person-to person, collaboration among a team rather than a pair of coauthors, or biological interaction between a set of molecules rather than just two. Such higher-order interactions are ubiquitous, but their empirical study has received limited attention, and little is known about possible organizational principles of such structures. Here we study the temporal evolution of 19 datasets with explicit accounting for higher-order interactions. We show that there is a rich variety of structure in our datasets but datasets from the same system types have consistent patterns of higher-order structure. Furthermore, we find that tie strength and edge density are competing positive indicators of higher-order organization, and these trends are consistent across interactions involving differing numbers of nodes. To systematically further the study of theories for such higher-order structures, we propose higher-order link prediction as a benchmark problem to assess models and algorithms that predict higher-order structure. We find a fundamental differences from traditional pairwise link prediction, with a greater role for local rather than long-range information in predicting the appearance of new interactions.

Several studies have compared the in-distribution (ID) and out-of-distribution (OOD) performance of models in computer vision and NLP. They report a frequent positive correlation and some surprisingly never even observe an inverse correlation indicative of a necessary trade-off. The possibility of inverse patterns is important to determine whether ID performance can serve as a proxy for OOD generalization capabilities. This paper shows with multiple datasets that inverse correlations between ID and OOD performance do happen in real-world data - not only in theoretical worst-case settings. We also explain theoretically how these cases can arise even in a minimal linear setting, and why past studies could miss such cases due to a biased selection of models. Our observations lead to recommendations that contradict those found in much of the current literature. - High OOD performance sometimes requires trading off ID performance. - Focusing on ID performance alone may not lead to optimal OOD performance. It may produce diminishing (eventually negative) returns in OOD performance. - In these cases, studies on OOD generalization that use ID performance for model selection (a common recommended practice) will necessarily miss the best-performing models, making these studies blind to a whole range of phenomena.

We study a new connection between a technical measure called mu-conductance that arises in the study of Markov chains for sampling convex bodies and the network community profile that characterizes size-resolved properties of clusters and communities in social and information networks. The idea of mu-conductance is similar to the traditional graph conductance, but disregards sets with small volume. We derive a sequence of optimization problems including a low-rank semi-definite program from which we can derive a lower bound on the optimal mu-conductance value. These ideas give the first theoretically sound bound on the behavior of the network community profile for a wide range of cluster sizes. The algorithm scales up to graphs with hundreds of thousands of nodes and we demonstrate how our framework validates the predicted structures of real-world graphs.

Understanding the internal representations learned by neural networks is a cornerstone challenge in the science of machine learning. While there have been significant recent strides in some cases towards understanding how neural networks implement specific target functions, this paper explores a complementary question -- why do networks arrive at particular computational strategies? Our inquiry focuses on the algebraic learning tasks of modular addition, sparse parities, and finite group operations. Our primary theoretical findings analytically characterize the features learned by stylized neural networks for these algebraic tasks. Notably, our main technique demonstrates how the principle of margin maximization alone can be used to fully specify the features learned by the network. Specifically, we prove that the trained networks utilize Fourier features to perform modular addition and employ features corresponding to irreducible group-theoretic representations to perform compositions in general groups, aligning closely with the empirical observations of Nanda et al. and Chughtai et al. More generally, we hope our techniques can help to foster a deeper understanding of why neural networks adopt specific computational strategies.

Interpretability research now offers a variety of techniques for identifying abstract internal mechanisms in neural networks. Can such techniques be used to predict how models will behave on out-of-distribution examples? In this work, we provide a positive answer to this question. Through a diverse set of language modeling tasks--including symbol manipulation, knowledge retrieval, and instruction following--we show that the most robust features for correctness prediction are those that play a distinctive causal role in the model's behavior. Specifically, we propose two methods that leverage causal mechanisms to predict the correctness of model outputs: counterfactual simulation (checking whether key causal variables are realized) and value probing (using the values of those variables to make predictions). Both achieve high AUC-ROC in distribution and outperform methods that rely on causal-agnostic features in out-of-distribution settings, where predicting model behaviors is more crucial. Our work thus highlights a novel and significant application for internal causal analysis of language models.

This tutorial serves as a comprehensive guide for understanding graph databases, focusing on the fundamentals of graph theory while showcasing practical applications across various fields. It starts by introducing foundational concepts and delves into the structure of graphs through nodes and edges, covering different types such as undirected, directed, weighted, and unweighted graphs. Key graph properties, terminologies, and essential algorithms for network analysis are outlined, including Dijkstras shortest path algorithm and methods for calculating node centrality and graph connectivity. The tutorial highlights the advantages of graph databases over traditional relational databases, particularly in efficiently managing complex, interconnected data. It examines leading graph database systems such as Neo4j, Amazon Neptune, and ArangoDB, emphasizing their unique features for handling large datasets. Practical instructions on graph operations using NetworkX and Neo4j are provided, covering node and edge creation, attribute assignment, and advanced queries with Cypher. Additionally, the tutorial explores common graph visualization techniques using tools like Plotly and Neo4j Bloom, which enhance the interpretation and usability of graph data. It also delves into community detection algorithms, including the Louvain method, which facilitates clustering in large networks. Finally, the paper concludes with recommendations for researchers interested in exploring the vast potential of graph technologies.

Much has been said about observability in system theory and control; however, it has been recently that observability in complex networks has seriously attracted the attention of researchers. This paper examines the state-of-the-art and discusses some issues raised due to "complexity" and "stochasticity". These unresolved issues call for a new practical methodology. For stochastic systems, a degree of observability may be defined and the observability problem is not a binary (i.e., yes-no) question anymore. Here, we propose to employ a goal-seeking system to play a supervisory role in the network. Hence, improving the degree of observability would be a valid objective for the supervisory system. Towards this goal, the supervisor dynamically optimizes the observation process by reconfiguring the sensory parts in the network. A cognitive dynamic system is suggested as a proper choice for the supervisory system. In this framework, the network itself is viewed as the environment with which the cognitive dynamic system interacts. Computer experiments confirm the potential of the proposed approach for addressing some of the issues raised in networks due to complexity and stochasticity.

Predicting the bandwidth utilization on network links can be extremely useful for detecting congestion in order to correct them before they occur. In this paper, we present a solution to predict the bandwidth utilization between different network links with a very high accuracy. A simulated network is created to collect data related to the performance of the network links on every interface. These data are processed and expanded with feature engineering in order to create a training set. We evaluate and compare three types of machine learning algorithms, namely ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average), MLP (Multi Layer Perceptron) and LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory), in order to predict the future bandwidth consumption. The LSTM outperforms ARIMA and MLP with very accurate predictions, rarely exceeding a 3\% error (40\% for ARIMA and 20\% for the MLP). We then show that the proposed solution can be used in real time with a reaction managed by a Software-Defined Networking (SDN) platform.

This paper studies the problem of embedding very large information networks into low-dimensional vector spaces, which is useful in many tasks such as visualization, node classification, and link prediction. Most existing graph embedding methods do not scale for real world information networks which usually contain millions of nodes. In this paper, we propose a novel network embedding method called the "LINE," which is suitable for arbitrary types of information networks: undirected, directed, and/or weighted. The method optimizes a carefully designed objective function that preserves both the local and global network structures. An edge-sampling algorithm is proposed that addresses the limitation of the classical stochastic gradient descent and improves both the effectiveness and the efficiency of the inference. Empirical experiments prove the effectiveness of the LINE on a variety of real-world information networks, including language networks, social networks, and citation networks. The algorithm is very efficient, which is able to learn the embedding of a network with millions of vertices and billions of edges in a few hours on a typical single machine. The source code of the LINE is available online.

Machine learning frameworks such as graph neural networks typically rely on a given, fixed graph to exploit relational inductive biases and thus effectively learn from network data. However, when said graphs are (partially) unobserved, noisy, or dynamic, the problem of inferring graph structure from data becomes relevant. In this paper, we postulate a graph convolutional relationship between the observed and latent graphs, and formulate the graph learning task as a network inverse (deconvolution) problem. In lieu of eigendecomposition-based spectral methods or iterative optimization solutions, we unroll and truncate proximal gradient iterations to arrive at a parameterized neural network architecture that we call a Graph Deconvolution Network (GDN). GDNs can learn a distribution of graphs in a supervised fashion, perform link prediction or edge-weight regression tasks by adapting the loss function, and they are inherently inductive. We corroborate GDN's superior graph recovery performance and its generalization to larger graphs using synthetic data in supervised settings. Furthermore, we demonstrate the robustness and representation power of GDNs on real world neuroimaging and social network datasets.

Interventions on model-internal states are fundamental operations in many areas of AI, including model editing, steering, robustness, and interpretability. To facilitate such research, we introduce pyvene, an open-source Python library that supports customizable interventions on a range of different PyTorch modules. pyvene supports complex intervention schemes with an intuitive configuration format, and its interventions can be static or include trainable parameters. We show how pyvene provides a unified and extensible framework for performing interventions on neural models and sharing the intervened upon models with others. We illustrate the power of the library via interpretability analyses using causal abstraction and knowledge localization. We publish our library through Python Package Index (PyPI) and provide code, documentation, and tutorials at https://github.com/stanfordnlp/pyvene.

The study of network robustness is a critical tool in the characterization and sense making of complex interconnected systems such as infrastructure, communication and social networks. While significant research has been conducted in all of these areas, gaps in the surveying literature still exist. Answers to key questions are currently scattered across multiple scientific fields and numerous papers. In this survey, we distill key findings across numerous domains and provide researchers crucial access to important information by--(1) summarizing and comparing recent and classical graph robustness measures; (2) exploring which robustness measures are most applicable to different categories of networks (e.g., social, infrastructure; (3) reviewing common network attack strategies, and summarizing which attacks are most effective across different network topologies; and (4) extensive discussion on selecting defense techniques to mitigate attacks across a variety of networks. This survey guides researchers and practitioners in navigating the expansive field of network robustness, while summarizing answers to key questions. We conclude by highlighting current research directions and open problems.

We formalize constraint-based structure learning of the "true" causal graph from observed data when unobserved variables are also existent. We provide conditions for a "natural" family of constraint-based structure-learning algorithms that output graphs that are Markov equivalent to the causal graph. Under the faithfulness assumption, this natural family contains all exact structure-learning algorithms. We also provide a set of assumptions, under which any natural structure-learning algorithm outputs Markov equivalent graphs to the causal graph. These assumptions can be thought of as a relaxation of faithfulness, and most of them can be directly tested from (the underlying distribution) of the data, particularly when one focuses on structural causal models. We specialize the definitions and results for structural causal models.

We present network embedding algorithms that capture information about a node from the local distribution over node attributes around it, as observed over random walks following an approach similar to Skip-gram. Observations from neighborhoods of different sizes are either pooled (AE) or encoded distinctly in a multi-scale approach (MUSAE). Capturing attribute-neighborhood relationships over multiple scales is useful for a diverse range of applications, including latent feature identification across disconnected networks with similar attributes. We prove theoretically that matrices of node-feature pointwise mutual information are implicitly factorized by the embeddings. Experiments show that our algorithms are robust, computationally efficient and outperform comparable models on social networks and web graphs.

Graph mining workloads aim to extract structural properties of a graph by exploring its subgraph structures. General purpose graph mining systems provide a generic runtime to explore subgraph structures of interest with the help of user-defined functions that guide the overall exploration process. However, the state-of-the-art graph mining systems remain largely oblivious to the shape (or pattern) of the subgraphs that they mine. This causes them to: (a) explore unnecessary subgraphs; (b) perform expensive computations on the explored subgraphs; and, (c) hold intermediate partial subgraphs in memory; all of which affect their overall performance. Furthermore, their programming models are often tied to their underlying exploration strategies, which makes it difficult for domain users to express complex mining tasks. In this paper, we develop Peregrine, a pattern-aware graph mining system that directly explores the subgraphs of interest while avoiding exploration of unnecessary subgraphs, and simultaneously bypassing expensive computations throughout the mining process. We design a pattern-based programming model that treats "graph patterns" as first class constructs and enables Peregrine to extract the semantics of patterns, which it uses to guide its exploration. Our evaluation shows that Peregrine outperforms state-of-the-art distributed and single machine graph mining systems, and scales to complex mining tasks on larger graphs, while retaining simplicity and expressivity with its "pattern-first" programming approach.

This paper proposes a novel framework to predict traffic flows' bandwidth ahead of time. Modern network management systems share a common issue: the network situation evolves between the moment the decision is made and the moment when actions (countermeasures) are applied. This framework converts packets from real-life traffic into flows containing relevant features. Machine learning models, including Decision Tree, Random Forest, XGBoost, and Deep Neural Network, are trained on these data to predict the bandwidth at the next time instance for every flow. Predictions can be fed to the management system instead of current flows bandwidth in order to take decisions on a more accurate network state. Experiments were performed on 981,774 flows and 15 different time windows (from 0.03s to 4s). They show that the Random Forest is the best performing and most reliable model, with a predictive performance consistently better than relying on the current bandwidth (+19.73% in mean absolute error and +18.00% in root mean square error). Experimental results indicate that this framework can help network management systems to take more informed decisions using a predicted network state.

Node features and structural information of a graph are both crucial for semi-supervised node classification problems. A variety of graph neural network (GNN) based approaches have been proposed to tackle these problems, which typically determine output labels through feature aggregation. This can be problematic, as it implies conditional independence of output nodes given hidden representations, despite their direct connections in the graph. To learn the direct influence among output nodes in a graph, we propose the Explicit Pairwise Factorized Graph Neural Network (EPFGNN), which models the whole graph as a partially observed Markov Random Field. It contains explicit pairwise factors to model output-output relations and uses a GNN backbone to model input-output relations. To balance model complexity and expressivity, the pairwise factors have a shared component and a separate scaling coefficient for each edge. We apply the EM algorithm to train our model, and utilize a star-shaped piecewise likelihood for the tractable surrogate objective. We conduct experiments on various datasets, which shows that our model can effectively improve the performance for semi-supervised node classification on graphs.

We develop tools for explicitly constructing categories enriched over generating data and that compose via ordinary scalar and matrix arithmetic arithmetic operations. We characterize meaningful size maps, weightings, and magnitude that reveal features analogous to outliers that these same notions have previously been shown to reveal in the context of metric spaces. Throughout, we provide examples of such "outlier detection" relevant to the analysis of computer programs, neural networks, cyber-physical systems, and networks of communications channels.

We propose a learning algorithm for local routing policies that needs only a few data samples obtained from a single graph while generalizing to all random graphs in a standard model of wireless networks. We thus solve the all-pairs near-shortest path problem by training deep neural networks (DNNs) that efficiently and scalably learn routing policies that are local, i.e., they only consider node states and the states of neighboring nodes. Remarkably, one of these DNNs we train learns a policy that exactly matches the performance of greedy forwarding; another generally outperforms greedy forwarding. Our algorithm design exploits network domain knowledge in several ways: First, in the selection of input features and, second, in the selection of a ``seed graph'' and subsamples from its shortest paths. The leverage of domain knowledge provides theoretical explainability of why the seed graph and node subsampling suffice for learning that is efficient, scalable, and generalizable. Simulation-based results on uniform random graphs with diverse sizes and densities empirically corroborate that using samples generated from a few routing paths in a modest-sized seed graph quickly learns a model that is generalizable across (almost) all random graphs in the wireless network model.

Bayesian models of cognition have gained considerable traction in computational neuroscience and psychiatry. Their scopes are now expected to expand rapidly to artificial intelligence, providing general inference frameworks to support embodied, adaptable, and energy-efficient autonomous agents. A central theory in this domain is predictive coding, which posits that learning and behaviour are driven by hierarchical probabilistic inferences about the causes of sensory inputs. Biological realism constrains these networks to rely on simple local computations in the form of precision-weighted predictions and prediction errors. This can make this framework highly efficient, but its implementation comes with unique challenges on the software development side. Embedding such models in standard neural network libraries often becomes limiting, as these libraries' compilation and differentiation backends can force a conceptual separation between optimization algorithms and the systems being optimized. This critically departs from other biological principles such as self-monitoring, self-organisation, cellular growth and functional plasticity. In this paper, we introduce pyhgf: a Python package backed by JAX and Rust for creating, manipulating and sampling dynamic networks for predictive coding. We improve over other frameworks by enclosing the network components as transparent, modular and malleable variables in the message-passing steps. The resulting graphs can implement arbitrary computational complexities as beliefs propagation. But the transparency of core variables can also translate into inference processes that leverage self-organisation principles, and express structure learning, meta-learning or causal discovery as the consequence of network structural adaptation to surprising inputs. The code, tutorials and documentation are hosted at: https://github.com/ilabcode/pyhgf.

In theoretical neuroscience, recent work leverages deep learning tools to explore how some network attributes critically influence its learning dynamics. Notably, initial weight distributions with small (resp. large) variance may yield a rich (resp. lazy) regime, where significant (resp. minor) changes to network states and representation are observed over the course of learning. However, in biology, neural circuit connectivity could exhibit a low-rank structure and therefore differs markedly from the random initializations generally used for these studies. As such, here we investigate how the structure of the initial weights -- in particular their effective rank -- influences the network learning regime. Through both empirical and theoretical analyses, we discover that high-rank initializations typically yield smaller network changes indicative of lazier learning, a finding we also confirm with experimentally-driven initial connectivity in recurrent neural networks. Conversely, low-rank initialization biases learning towards richer learning. Importantly, however, as an exception to this rule, we find lazier learning can still occur with a low-rank initialization that aligns with task and data statistics. Our research highlights the pivotal role of initial weight structures in shaping learning regimes, with implications for metabolic costs of plasticity and risks of catastrophic forgetting.

The R-Learner is a powerful, theoretically-grounded framework for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects, prized for its robustness to nuisance model errors. However, its application to network data, where causal heterogeneity is often graph-dependent, presents a critical challenge to its core assumption of a well-specified final-stage model. In this paper, we conduct a large-scale empirical study to systematically dissect the R-Learner framework on graphs. We provide the first rigorous evidence that the primary driver of performance is the inductive bias of the final-stage CATE estimator, an effect that dominates the choice of nuisance models. Our central finding is the quantification of a catastrophic "representation bottleneck": we prove with overwhelming statistical significance (p < 0.001) that R-Learners with a graph-blind final stage fail completely (MSE > 4.0), even when paired with powerful GNN nuisance models. Conversely, our proposed end-to-end Graph R-Learner succeeds and significantly outperforms a strong, non-DML GNN T-Learner baseline. Furthermore, we identify and provide a mechanistic explanation for a subtle, topology-dependent "nuisance bottleneck," linking it to GNN over-squashing via a targeted "Hub-Periphery Trade-off" analysis. Our findings are validated across diverse synthetic and semi-synthetic benchmarks. We release our code as a reproducible benchmark to facilitate future research on this critical "final-stage bottleneck."

We apply a complex network approach to analyse the time series of five solar parameters, and propose an strategy to predict the number of sunspots for the next solar maximum, and when will this maximum will occur. The approach is based on the Visibility Graph (VG) algorithm, and a slightly modified version of it, the Horizontal Visibility Graph (HVG), which map a time series into a complex network. Various network metrics exhibit either an exponential or a scale-free behavior, and we find that the evolution of the characteristic decay exponents is consistent with variations of the sunspots number along solar cycles. During solar minimum, the sunspots number and the solar index time series have characteristic decay exponents that correlate well with the next maximum sunspots number, suggesting that they may be good precursors of the intensity of the next solar maximum. Based on this observation, we find that, based on current data, the algorithm predicts a number of 179 sunspots for cycle 25. Combining this with the Hathaway function, adjusted to yield such maximum sunspots number, we find that the maximum for solar cycle 25 will occur in December 2024/January 2025.

Node centralities play a pivotal role in network science, social network analysis, and recommender systems. In temporal data, static path-based centralities like closeness or betweenness can give misleading results about the true importance of nodes in a temporal graph. To address this issue, temporal generalizations of betweenness and closeness have been defined that are based on the shortest time-respecting paths between pairs of nodes. However, a major issue of those generalizations is that the calculation of such paths is computationally expensive. Addressing this issue, we study the application of De Bruijn Graph Neural Networks (DBGNN), a causality-aware graph neural network architecture, to predict temporal path-based centralities in time series data. We experimentally evaluate our approach in 13 temporal graphs from biological and social systems and show that it considerably improves the prediction of both betweenness and closeness centrality compared to a static Graph Convolutional Neural Network.

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have shown great promise in learning node embeddings for link prediction (LP). While numerous studies aim to improve the overall LP performance of GNNs, none have explored its varying performance across different nodes and its underlying reasons. To this end, we aim to demystify which nodes will perform better from the perspective of their local topology. Despite the widespread belief that low-degree nodes exhibit poorer LP performance, our empirical findings provide nuances to this viewpoint and prompt us to propose a better metric, Topological Concentration (TC), based on the intersection of the local subgraph of each node with the ones of its neighbors. We empirically demonstrate that TC has a higher correlation with LP performance than other node-level topological metrics like degree and subgraph density, offering a better way to identify low-performing nodes than using cold-start. With TC, we discover a novel topological distribution shift issue in which newly joined neighbors of a node tend to become less interactive with that node's existing neighbors, compromising the generalizability of node embeddings for LP at testing time. To make the computation of TC scalable, We further propose Approximated Topological Concentration (ATC) and theoretically/empirically justify its efficacy in approximating TC and reducing the computation complexity. Given the positive correlation between node TC and its LP performance, we explore the potential of boosting LP performance via enhancing TC by re-weighting edges in the message-passing and discuss its effectiveness with limitations. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/YuWVandy/Topo_LP_GNN.

Large language models are being widely used across industries to generate content that contributes directly to key performance metrics, such as conversion rates. Pretrained models, however, often fall short when it comes to aligning with human preferences or optimizing for business objectives. As a result, fine-tuning with good-quality labeled data is essential to guide models to generate content that achieves better results. Controlled experiments, like A/B tests, can provide such data, but they are often expensive and come with significant engineering and logistical challenges. Meanwhile, companies have access to a vast amount of historical (observational) data that remains underutilized. In this work, we study the challenges and opportunities of fine-tuning LLMs using observational data. We show that while observational outcomes can provide valuable supervision, directly fine-tuning models on such data can lead them to learn spurious correlations. We present empirical evidence of this issue using various real-world datasets and propose DeconfoundLM, a method that explicitly removes the effect of known confounders from reward signals. Using simulation experiments, we demonstrate that DeconfoundLM improves the recovery of causal relationships and mitigates failure modes found in fine-tuning methods that ignore or naively incorporate confounding variables. Our findings highlight that while observational data presents risks, with the right causal corrections, it can be a powerful source of signal for LLM alignment. Please refer to the project page for code and related resources.

This article presents Individual Conditional Expectation (ICE) plots, a tool for visualizing the model estimated by any supervised learning algorithm. Classical partial dependence plots (PDPs) help visualize the average partial relationship between the predicted response and one or more features. In the presence of substantial interaction effects, the partial response relationship can be heterogeneous. Thus, an average curve, such as the PDP, can obfuscate the complexity of the modeled relationship. Accordingly, ICE plots refine the partial dependence plot by graphing the functional relationship between the predicted response and the feature for individual observations. Specifically, ICE plots highlight the variation in the fitted values across the range of a covariate, suggesting where and to what extent heterogeneities might exist. In addition to providing a plotting suite for exploratory analysis, we include a visual test for additive structure in the data generating model. Through simulated examples and real data sets, we demonstrate how ICE plots can shed light on estimated models in ways PDPs cannot. Procedures outlined are available in the R package ICEbox.

How might one test the hypothesis that networks were sampled from the same distribution? Here, we compare two statistical tests that use subgraph counts to address this question. The first uses the empirical subgraph densities themselves as estimates of those of the underlying distribution. The second test uses a new approach that converts these subgraph densities into estimates of the graph cumulants of the distribution (without any increase in computational complexity). We demonstrate -- via theory, simulation, and application to real data -- the superior statistical power of using graph cumulants. In summary, when analyzing data using subgraph/motif densities, we suggest using the corresponding graph cumulants instead.

Key graph-based problems play a central role in understanding network topology and uncovering patterns of similarity in homogeneous and temporal data. Such patterns can be revealed by analyzing communities formed by nodes, which in turn can be effectively modeled through temporal k-cores. This paper introduces a novel decentralized and incremental algorithm for computing the core decomposition of temporal networks. Decentralized solutions leverage the ability of network nodes to communicate and coordinate locally, addressing complex problems in a scalable, adaptive, and timely manner. By leveraging previously computed coreness values, our approach significantly reduces the activation of nodes and the volume of message exchanges when the network changes over time. This enables scalability with only a minimal trade-off in precision. Experimental evaluations on large real-world networks under varying levels of dynamism demonstrate the efficiency of our solution compared to a state-of-the-art approach, particularly in terms of active nodes, communication overhead, and convergence speed.

Language models show a surprising range of capabilities, but the source of their apparent competence is unclear. Do these networks just memorize a collection of surface statistics, or do they rely on internal representations of the process that generates the sequences they see? We investigate this question by applying a variant of the GPT model to the task of predicting legal moves in a simple board game, Othello. Although the network has no a priori knowledge of the game or its rules, we uncover evidence of an emergent nonlinear internal representation of the board state. Interventional experiments indicate this representation can be used to control the output of the network and create "latent saliency maps" that can help explain predictions in human terms.

Network pruning techniques, including weight pruning and filter pruning, reveal that most state-of-the-art neural networks can be accelerated without a significant performance drop. This work focuses on filter pruning which enables accelerated inference with any off-the-shelf deep learning library and hardware. We propose the concept of network pruning spaces that parametrize populations of subnetwork architectures. Based on this concept, we explore the structure aspect of subnetworks that result in minimal loss of accuracy in different pruning regimes and arrive at a series of observations by comparing subnetwork distributions. We conjecture through empirical studies that there exists an optimal FLOPs-to-parameter-bucket ratio related to the design of original network in a pruning regime. Statistically, the structure of a winning subnetwork guarantees an approximately optimal ratio in this regime. Upon our conjectures, we further refine the initial pruning space to reduce the cost of searching a good subnetwork architecture. Our experimental results on ImageNet show that the subnetwork we found is superior to those from the state-of-the-art pruning methods under comparable FLOPs.

Network systems form the foundation of modern society, playing a critical role in various applications. However, these systems are at significant risk of being adversely affected by unforeseen circumstances, such as disasters. Considering this, there is a pressing need for research to enhance the robustness of network systems. Recently, in reinforcement learning, the relationship between acquiring robustness and regularizing entropy has been identified. Additionally, imitation learning is used within this framework to reflect experts' behavior. However, there are no comprehensive studies on the use of a similar imitation framework for optimal transport on networks. Therefore, in this study, imitation-regularized optimal transport (I-OT) on networks was investigated. It encodes prior knowledge on the network by imitating a given prior distribution. The I-OT solution demonstrated robustness in terms of the cost defined on the network. Moreover, we applied the I-OT to a logistics planning problem using real data. We also examined the imitation and apriori risk information scenarios to demonstrate the usefulness and implications of the proposed method.

Understanding the dynamic behavior of computer programs during normal working conditions is an important task, which has multiple security benefits such as the development of behavior-based anomaly detection, vulnerability discovery, and patching. Existing works achieved this goal by collecting and analyzing various data including network traffic, system calls, instruction traces, etc. In this paper, we explore the use of a new type of data, performance counters, to analyze the dynamic behavior of programs. Using existing primitives, we develop a tool named perfextract to capture data from different performance counters for a program during its startup time, thus forming multiple time series to represent the dynamic behavior of the program. We analyze the collected data and develop a semi-supervised clustering algorithm that allows us to classify each program using its performance counter time series into a specific group and to identify the intrinsic behavior of that group. We carry out extensive experiments with 18 real-world programs that belong to 4 groups including web browsers, text editors, image viewers, and audio players. The experimental results show that the examined programs can be accurately differentiated based on their performance counter data regardless of whether programs are run in physical or virtual environments.

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have demonstrated superior performance on various graph learning tasks, including recommendation, where they leverage user-item collaborative filtering signals in graphs. However, theoretical formulations of their capability are scarce, despite their empirical effectiveness in state-of-the-art recommender models. Recently, research has explored the expressiveness of GNNs in general, demonstrating that message passing GNNs are at most as powerful as the Weisfeiler-Lehman test, and that GNNs combined with random node initialization are universal. Nevertheless, the concept of "expressiveness" for GNNs remains vaguely defined. Most existing works adopt the graph isomorphism test as the metric of expressiveness, but this graph-level task may not effectively assess a model's ability in recommendation, where the objective is to distinguish nodes of different closeness. In this paper, we provide a comprehensive theoretical analysis of the expressiveness of GNNs in recommendation, considering three levels of expressiveness metrics: graph isomorphism (graph-level), node automorphism (node-level), and topological closeness (link-level). We propose the topological closeness metric to evaluate GNNs' ability to capture the structural distance between nodes, which aligns closely with the objective of recommendation. To validate the effectiveness of this new metric in evaluating recommendation performance, we introduce a learning-less GNN algorithm that is optimal on the new metric and can be optimal on the node-level metric with suitable modification. We conduct extensive experiments comparing the proposed algorithm against various types of state-of-the-art GNN models to explore the explainability of the new metric in the recommendation task. For reproducibility, implementation codes are available at https://github.com/HKUDS/GTE.

Spurious correlations allow flexible models to predict well during training but poorly on related test distributions. Recent work has shown that models that satisfy particular independencies involving correlation-inducing nuisance variables have guarantees on their test performance. Enforcing such independencies requires nuisances to be observed during training. However, nuisances, such as demographics or image background labels, are often missing. Enforcing independence on just the observed data does not imply independence on the entire population. Here we derive mmd estimators used for invariance objectives under missing nuisances. On simulations and clinical data, optimizing through these estimates achieves test performance similar to using estimators that make use of the full data.

Variational approaches based on neural networks are showing promise for estimating mutual information (MI) between high dimensional variables. However, they can be difficult to use in practice due to poorly understood bias/variance tradeoffs. We theoretically show that, under some conditions, estimators such as MINE exhibit variance that could grow exponentially with the true amount of underlying MI. We also empirically demonstrate that existing estimators fail to satisfy basic self-consistency properties of MI, such as data processing and additivity under independence. Based on a unified perspective of variational approaches, we develop a new estimator that focuses on variance reduction. Empirical results on standard benchmark tasks demonstrate that our proposed estimator exhibits improved bias-variance trade-offs on standard benchmark tasks.

Network pruning is widely used for reducing the heavy inference cost of deep models in low-resource settings. A typical pruning algorithm is a three-stage pipeline, i.e., training (a large model), pruning and fine-tuning. During pruning, according to a certain criterion, redundant weights are pruned and important weights are kept to best preserve the accuracy. In this work, we make several surprising observations which contradict common beliefs. For all state-of-the-art structured pruning algorithms we examined, fine-tuning a pruned model only gives comparable or worse performance than training that model with randomly initialized weights. For pruning algorithms which assume a predefined target network architecture, one can get rid of the full pipeline and directly train the target network from scratch. Our observations are consistent for multiple network architectures, datasets, and tasks, which imply that: 1) training a large, over-parameterized model is often not necessary to obtain an efficient final model, 2) learned "important" weights of the large model are typically not useful for the small pruned model, 3) the pruned architecture itself, rather than a set of inherited "important" weights, is more crucial to the efficiency in the final model, which suggests that in some cases pruning can be useful as an architecture search paradigm. Our results suggest the need for more careful baseline evaluations in future research on structured pruning methods. We also compare with the "Lottery Ticket Hypothesis" (Frankle & Carbin 2019), and find that with optimal learning rate, the "winning ticket" initialization as used in Frankle & Carbin (2019) does not bring improvement over random initialization.

Recently, graph neural networks (GNNs) have shown prominent performance in semi-supervised node classification by leveraging knowledge from the graph database. However, most existing GNNs follow the homophily assumption, where connected nodes are more likely to exhibit similar feature distributions and the same labels, and such an assumption has proven to be vulnerable in a growing number of practical applications. As a supplement, heterophily reflects dissimilarity in connected nodes, which has gained significant attention in graph learning. To this end, data engineers aim to develop a powerful GNN model that can ensure performance under both homophily and heterophily. Despite numerous attempts, most existing GNNs struggle to achieve optimal node representations due to the constraints of undirected graphs. The neglect of directed edges results in sub-optimal graph representations, thereby hindering the capacity of GNNs. To address this issue, we introduce AMUD, which quantifies the relationship between node profiles and topology from a statistical perspective, offering valuable insights for Adaptively Modeling the natural directed graphs as the Undirected or Directed graph to maximize the benefits from subsequent graph learning. Furthermore, we propose Adaptive Directed Pattern Aggregation (ADPA) as a new directed graph learning paradigm for AMUD. Empirical studies have demonstrated that AMUD guides efficient graph learning. Meanwhile, extensive experiments on 14 benchmark datasets substantiate the impressive performance of ADPA, outperforming baselines by significant margins of 3.96\%.

Grokking is the intriguing phenomenon where a model learns to generalize long after it has fit the training data. We show both analytically and numerically that grokking can surprisingly occur in linear networks performing linear tasks in a simple teacher-student setup with Gaussian inputs. In this setting, the full training dynamics is derived in terms of the training and generalization data covariance matrix. We present exact predictions on how the grokking time depends on input and output dimensionality, train sample size, regularization, and network initialization. We demonstrate that the sharp increase in generalization accuracy may not imply a transition from "memorization" to "understanding", but can simply be an artifact of the accuracy measure. We provide empirical verification for our calculations, along with preliminary results indicating that some predictions also hold for deeper networks, with non-linear activations.

Recent work has shown promising results in causal discovery by leveraging interventional data with gradient-based methods, even when the intervened variables are unknown. However, previous work assumes that the correspondence between samples and interventions is known, which is often unrealistic. We envision a scenario with an extensive dataset sampled from multiple intervention distributions and one observation distribution, but where we do not know which distribution originated each sample and how the intervention affected the system, i.e., interventions are entirely latent. We propose a method based on neural networks and variational inference that addresses this scenario by framing it as learning a shared causal graph among an infinite mixture (under a Dirichlet process prior) of intervention structural causal models. Experiments with synthetic and real data show that our approach and its semi-supervised variant are able to discover causal relations in this challenging scenario.

Long-range dependencies are critical for effective graph representation learning, yet most existing datasets focus on small graphs tailored to inductive tasks, offering limited insight into long-range interactions. Current evaluations primarily compare models employing global attention (e.g., graph transformers) with those using local neighborhood aggregation (e.g., message-passing neural networks) without a direct measurement of long-range dependency. In this work, we introduce City-Networks, a novel large-scale transductive learning dataset derived from real-world city roads. This dataset features graphs with over 10^5 nodes and significantly larger diameters than those in existing benchmarks, naturally embodying long-range information. We annotate the graphs using an eccentricity-based approach, ensuring that the classification task inherently requires information from distant nodes. Furthermore, we propose a model-agnostic measurement based on the Jacobians of neighbors from distant hops, offering a principled quantification of long-range dependencies. Finally, we provide theoretical justifications for both our dataset design and the proposed measurement - particularly by focusing on over-smoothing and influence score dilution - which establishes a robust foundation for further exploration of long-range interactions in graph neural networks.

Graphs can be used to represent and reason about systems and a variety of metrics have been devised to quantify their global characteristics. However, little is currently known about how to construct a graph or improve an existing one given a target objective. In this work, we formulate the construction of a graph as a decision-making process in which a central agent creates topologies by trial and error and receives rewards proportional to the value of the target objective. By means of this conceptual framework, we propose an algorithm based on reinforcement learning and graph neural networks to learn graph construction and improvement strategies. Our core case study focuses on robustness to failures and attacks, a property relevant for the infrastructure and communication networks that power modern society. Experiments on synthetic and real-world graphs show that this approach can outperform existing methods while being cheaper to evaluate. It also allows generalization to out-of-sample graphs, as well as to larger out-of-distribution graphs in some cases. The approach is applicable to the optimization of other global structural properties of graphs.

Graph neural networks are popular architectures for graph machine learning, based on iterative computation of node representations of an input graph through a series of invariant transformations. A large class of graph neural networks follow a standard message-passing paradigm: at every layer, each node state is updated based on an aggregate of messages from its neighborhood. In this work, we propose a novel framework for training graph neural networks, where every node is viewed as a player that can choose to either 'listen', 'broadcast', 'listen and broadcast', or to 'isolate'. The standard message propagation scheme can then be viewed as a special case of this framework where every node 'listens and broadcasts' to all neighbors. Our approach offers a more flexible and dynamic message-passing paradigm, where each node can determine its own strategy based on their state, effectively exploring the graph topology while learning. We provide a theoretical analysis of the new message-passing scheme which is further supported by an extensive empirical analysis on a synthetic dataset and on real-world datasets.

Time series are the primary data type used to record dynamic system measurements and generated in great volume by both physical sensors and online processes (virtual sensors). Time series analytics is therefore crucial to unlocking the wealth of information implicit in available data. With the recent advancements in graph neural networks (GNNs), there has been a surge in GNN-based approaches for time series analysis. These approaches can explicitly model inter-temporal and inter-variable relationships, which traditional and other deep neural network-based methods struggle to do. In this survey, we provide a comprehensive review of graph neural networks for time series analysis (GNN4TS), encompassing four fundamental dimensions: forecasting, classification, anomaly detection, and imputation. Our aim is to guide designers and practitioners to understand, build applications, and advance research of GNN4TS. At first, we provide a comprehensive task-oriented taxonomy of GNN4TS. Then, we present and discuss representative research works and introduce mainstream applications of GNN4TS. A comprehensive discussion of potential future research directions completes the survey. This survey, for the first time, brings together a vast array of knowledge on GNN-based time series research, highlighting foundations, practical applications, and opportunities of graph neural networks for time series analysis.

In recent years, Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have made significant advances in processing structured data. However, most of them primarily adopted a model-centric approach, which simplifies graphs by converting them into undirected formats and emphasizes model designs. This approach is inherently limited in real-world applications due to the unavoidable information loss in simple undirected graphs and the model optimization challenges that arise when exceeding the upper bounds of this sub-optimal data representational capacity. As a result, there has been a shift toward data-centric methods that prioritize improving graph quality and representation. Specifically, various types of graphs can be derived from naturally structured data, including heterogeneous graphs, hypergraphs, and directed graphs. Among these, directed graphs offer distinct advantages in topological systems by modeling causal relationships, and directed GNNs have been extensively studied in recent years. However, a comprehensive survey of this emerging topic is still lacking. Therefore, we aim to provide a comprehensive review of directed graph learning, with a particular focus on a data-centric perspective. Specifically, we first introduce a novel taxonomy for existing studies. Subsequently, we re-examine these methods from the data-centric perspective, with an emphasis on understanding and improving data representation. It demonstrates that a deep understanding of directed graphs and their quality plays a crucial role in model performance. Additionally, we explore the diverse applications of directed GNNs across 10+ domains, highlighting their broad applicability. Finally, we identify key opportunities and challenges within the field, offering insights that can guide future research and development in directed graph learning.

We present a straightforward statistical test to detect certain violations of the assumption that the data are Independent and Identically Distributed (IID). The specific form of violation considered is common across real-world applications: whether the examples are ordered in the dataset such that almost adjacent examples tend to have more similar feature values (e.g. due to distributional drift, or attractive interactions between datapoints). Based on a k-Nearest Neighbors estimate, our approach can be used to audit any multivariate numeric data as well as other data types (image, text, audio, etc.) that can be numerically represented, perhaps with model embeddings. Compared with existing methods to detect drift or auto-correlation, our approach is both applicable to more types of data and also able to detect a wider variety of IID violations in practice. Code: https://github.com/cleanlab/cleanlab

Accurately forecasting patient arrivals at Urgent Care Clinics (UCCs) and Emergency Departments (EDs) is important for effective resourcing and patient care. However, correctly estimating patient flows is not straightforward since it depends on many drivers. The predictability of patient arrivals has recently been further complicated by the COVID-19 pandemic conditions and the resulting lockdowns. This study investigates how a suite of novel quasi-real-time variables like Google search terms, pedestrian traffic, the prevailing incidence levels of influenza, as well as the COVID-19 Alert Level indicators can both generally improve the forecasting models of patient flows and effectively adapt the models to the unfolding disruptions of pandemic conditions. This research also uniquely contributes to the body of work in this domain by employing tools from the eXplainable AI field to investigate more deeply the internal mechanics of the models than has previously been done. The Voting ensemble-based method combining machine learning and statistical techniques was the most reliable in our experiments. Our study showed that the prevailing COVID-19 Alert Level feature together with Google search terms and pedestrian traffic were effective at producing generalisable forecasts. The implications of this study are that proxy variables can effectively augment standard autoregressive features to ensure accurate forecasting of patient flows. The experiments showed that the proposed features are potentially effective model inputs for preserving forecast accuracies in the event of future pandemic outbreaks.

Fair machine learning seeks to identify and mitigate biases in predictions against unfavorable populations characterized by demographic attributes, such as race and gender. Recently, a few works have extended fairness to graph data, such as social networks, but most of them neglect the causal relationships among data instances. This paper addresses the prevalent challenge in fairness-aware ML algorithms, which typically assume Independent and Identically Distributed (IID) data. We tackle the overlooked domain of non-IID, graph-based settings where data instances are interconnected, influencing the outcomes of fairness interventions. We base our research on the Network Structural Causal Model (NSCM) framework and posit two main assumptions: Decomposability and Graph Independence, which enable the computation of interventional distributions in non-IID settings using the do-calculus. Based on that, we develop the Message Passing Variational Autoencoder for Causal Inference (MPVA) to compute interventional distributions and facilitate causally fair node classification through estimated interventional distributions. Empirical evaluations on semi-synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that MPVA outperforms conventional methods by effectively approximating interventional distributions and mitigating bias. The implications of our findings underscore the potential of causality-based fairness in complex ML applications, setting the stage for further research into relaxing the initial assumptions to enhance model fairness.

Most existing causal discovery methods rely on the assumption of no latent confounders, limiting their applicability in solving real-life problems. In this paper, we introduce a novel, versatile framework for causal discovery that accommodates the presence of causally-related hidden variables almost everywhere in the causal network (for instance, they can be effects of observed variables), based on rank information of covariance matrix over observed variables. We start by investigating the efficacy of rank in comparison to conditional independence and, theoretically, establish necessary and sufficient conditions for the identifiability of certain latent structural patterns. Furthermore, we develop a Rank-based Latent Causal Discovery algorithm, RLCD, that can efficiently locate hidden variables, determine their cardinalities, and discover the entire causal structure over both measured and hidden ones. We also show that, under certain graphical conditions, RLCD correctly identifies the Markov Equivalence Class of the whole latent causal graph asymptotically. Experimental results on both synthetic and real-world personality data sets demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed approach in finite-sample cases.

In this paper, the causal bandit problem is investigated, in which the objective is to select an optimal sequence of interventions on nodes in a causal graph. It is assumed that the graph is governed by linear structural equations; it is further assumed that both the causal topology and the distribution of interventions are unknown. By exploiting the causal relationships between the nodes whose signals contribute to the reward, interventions are optimized. First, based on the difference between the two types of graph identification errors (false positives and negatives), a causal graph learning method is proposed, which strongly reduces sample complexity relative to the prior art by learning sub-graphs. Under the assumption of Gaussian exogenous inputs and minimum-mean squared error weight estimation, a new uncertainty bound tailored to the causal bandit problem is derived. This uncertainty bound drives an upper confidence bound based intervention selection to optimize the reward. To cope with non-stationary bandits, a sub-graph change detection mechanism is proposed, with high sample efficiency. Numerical results compare the new methodology to existing schemes and show a substantial performance improvement in both stationary and non-stationary settings. Compared to existing approaches, the proposed scheme takes 67% fewer samples to learn the causal structure and achieves an average reward gain of 85%.

The relationship between professional skills and higher education programs is modeled as a non-directed bipartite network with binary entries representing the links between 28 skills (as captured by the occupational information network, O*NET) and 258 graduate program summaries (as captured by commercial brochures of graduate programs in marketing with accreditation standards of the Association to Advance Collegiate Schools of Business). While descriptive analysis for skills suggests a qualitative lack of alignment between the job demands captured by O*NET, inferential analyses based on exponential random graph model estimates show that skills' popularity and homophily coexist with a systematic yet weak alignment to job demands for marketing managers.

Many deployed learned models are black boxes: given input, returns output. Internal information about the model, such as the architecture, optimisation procedure, or training data, is not disclosed explicitly as it might contain proprietary information or make the system more vulnerable. This work shows that such attributes of neural networks can be exposed from a sequence of queries. This has multiple implications. On the one hand, our work exposes the vulnerability of black-box neural networks to different types of attacks -- we show that the revealed internal information helps generate more effective adversarial examples against the black box model. On the other hand, this technique can be used for better protection of private content from automatic recognition models using adversarial examples. Our paper suggests that it is actually hard to draw a line between white box and black box models.

Time-series forecasting is one of the most active research topics in artificial intelligence. Applications in real-world time series should consider two factors for achieving reliable predictions: modeling dynamic dependencies among multiple variables and adjusting the model's intrinsic hyperparameters. A still open gap in that literature is that statistical and ensemble learning approaches systematically present lower predictive performance than deep learning methods. They generally disregard the data sequence aspect entangled with multivariate data represented in more than one time series. Conversely, this work presents a novel neural network architecture for time-series forecasting that combines the power of graph evolution with deep recurrent learning on distinct data distributions; we named our method Recurrent Graph Evolution Neural Network (ReGENN). The idea is to infer multiple multivariate relationships between co-occurring time-series by assuming that the temporal data depends not only on inner variables and intra-temporal relationships (i.e., observations from itself) but also on outer variables and inter-temporal relationships (i.e., observations from other-selves). An extensive set of experiments was conducted comparing ReGENN with dozens of ensemble methods and classical statistical ones, showing sound improvement of up to 64.87% over the competing algorithms. Furthermore, we present an analysis of the intermediate weights arising from ReGENN, showing that by looking at inter and intra-temporal relationships simultaneously, time-series forecasting is majorly improved if paying attention to how multiple multivariate data synchronously evolve.

Link prediction, a fundamental task on graphs, has proven indispensable in various applications, e.g., friend recommendation, protein analysis, and drug interaction prediction. However, since datasets span a multitude of domains, they could have distinct underlying mechanisms of link formation. Evidence in existing literature underscores the absence of a universally best algorithm suitable for all datasets. In this paper, we endeavor to explore principles of link prediction across diverse datasets from a data-centric perspective. We recognize three fundamental factors critical to link prediction: local structural proximity, global structural proximity, and feature proximity. We then unearth relationships among those factors where (i) global structural proximity only shows effectiveness when local structural proximity is deficient. (ii) The incompatibility can be found between feature and structural proximity. Such incompatibility leads to GNNs for Link Prediction (GNN4LP) consistently underperforming on edges where the feature proximity factor dominates. Inspired by these new insights from a data perspective, we offer practical instruction for GNN4LP model design and guidelines for selecting appropriate benchmark datasets for more comprehensive evaluations.

Network interpretation as an effort to reveal the features learned by a network remains largely visualization-based. In this paper, our goal is to tackle semantic network interpretation at both filter and decision level. For filter-level interpretation, we represent the concepts a filter encodes with a probability distribution of visual attributes. The decision-level interpretation is achieved by textual summarization that generates an explanatory sentence containing clues behind a network's decision. A Bayesian inference algorithm is proposed to automatically associate filters and network decisions with visual attributes. Human study confirms that the semantic interpretation is a beneficial alternative or complement to visualization methods. We demonstrate the crucial role that semantic network interpretation can play in understanding a network's failure patterns. More importantly, semantic network interpretation enables a better understanding of the correlation between a model's performance and its distribution metrics like filter selectivity and concept sparseness.

The Dragonfly network, with its high-radix and low-diameter structure, is a leading interconnect in high-performance computing. A major challenge is workload interference on shared network links. Parallel discrete event simulation (PDES) is commonly used to analyze workload interference. However, high-fidelity PDES is computationally expensive, making it impractical for large-scale or real-time scenarios. Hybrid simulation that incorporates data-driven surrogate models offers a promising alternative, especially for forecasting application runtime, a task complicated by the dynamic behavior of network traffic. We present \ourmodel, a surrogate model that combines graph neural networks (GNNs) and large language models (LLMs) to capture both spatial and temporal patterns from port level router data. \ourmodel outperforms existing statistical and machine learning baselines, enabling accurate runtime prediction and supporting efficient hybrid simulation of Dragonfly networks.

Causal effect estimation from observational data is fundamental across various applications. However, selecting an appropriate estimator from dozens of specialized methods demands substantial manual effort and domain expertise. We present CausalPFN, a single transformer that amortizes this workflow: trained once on a large library of simulated data-generating processes that satisfy ignorability, it infers causal effects for new observational datasets out-of-the-box. CausalPFN combines ideas from Bayesian causal inference with the large-scale training protocol of prior-fitted networks (PFNs), learning to map raw observations directly to causal effects without any task-specific adjustment. Our approach achieves superior average performance on heterogeneous and average treatment effect estimation benchmarks (IHDP, Lalonde, ACIC). Moreover, it shows competitive performance for real-world policy making on uplift modeling tasks. CausalPFN provides calibrated uncertainty estimates to support reliable decision-making based on Bayesian principles. This ready-to-use model does not require any further training or tuning and takes a step toward automated causal inference (https://github.com/vdblm/CausalPFN).

Exposing meaningful and interpretable neural interactions is critical to understanding neural circuits. Inferred neural interactions from neural signals primarily reflect functional interactions. In a long experiment, subject animals may experience different stages defined by the experiment, stimuli, or behavioral states, and hence functional interactions can change over time. To model dynamically changing functional interactions, prior work employs state-switching generalized linear models with hidden Markov models (i.e., HMM-GLMs). However, we argue they lack biological plausibility, as functional interactions are shaped and confined by the underlying anatomical connectome. Here, we propose a novel prior-informed state-switching GLM. We introduce both a Gaussian prior and a one-hot prior over the GLM in each state. The priors are learnable. We will show that the learned prior should capture the state-constant interaction, shedding light on the underlying anatomical connectome and revealing more likely physical neuron interactions. The state-dependent interaction modeled by each GLM offers traceability to capture functional variations across multiple brain states. Our methods effectively recover true interaction structures in simulated data, achieve the highest predictive likelihood with real neural datasets, and render interaction structures and hidden states more interpretable when applied to real neural data.

We study experiment design for unique identification of the causal graph of a simple SCM, where the graph may contain cycles. The presence of cycles in the structure introduces major challenges for experiment design as, unlike acyclic graphs, learning the skeleton of causal graphs with cycles may not be possible from merely the observational distribution. Furthermore, intervening on a variable in such graphs does not necessarily lead to orienting all the edges incident to it. In this paper, we propose an experiment design approach that can learn both cyclic and acyclic graphs and hence, unifies the task of experiment design for both types of graphs. We provide a lower bound on the number of experiments required to guarantee the unique identification of the causal graph in the worst case, showing that the proposed approach is order-optimal in terms of the number of experiments up to an additive logarithmic term. Moreover, we extend our result to the setting where the size of each experiment is bounded by a constant. For this case, we show that our approach is optimal in terms of the size of the largest experiment required for uniquely identifying the causal graph in the worst case.

Locating the source of an epidemic, or patient zero (P0), can provide critical insights into the infection's transmission course and allow efficient resource allocation. Existing methods use graph-theoretic centrality measures and expensive message-passing algorithms, requiring knowledge of the underlying dynamics and its parameters. In this paper, we revisit this problem using graph neural networks (GNNs) to learn P0. We establish a theoretical limit for the identification of P0 in a class of epidemic models. We evaluate our method against different epidemic models on both synthetic and a real-world contact network considering a disease with history and characteristics of COVID-19. % We observe that GNNs can identify P0 close to the theoretical bound on accuracy, without explicit input of dynamics or its parameters. In addition, GNN is over 100 times faster than classic methods for inference on arbitrary graph topologies. Our theoretical bound also shows that the epidemic is like a ticking clock, emphasizing the importance of early contact-tracing. We find a maximum time after which accurate recovery of the source becomes impossible, regardless of the algorithm used.

Model Predictive Controllers (MPC) require a good model for the controlled process. In this paper I infer inductive biases about a physical system. I use these biases to derive a new neural network architecture that can model this real system that has noise and inertia. The main inductive biases exploited here are: the delayed impact of some inputs on the system and the separability between the temporal component and how the inputs interact to produce the output of a system. The inputs are independently delayed using shifted convolutional kernels. Feature interactions are modelled using a fully connected network that does not have access to temporal information. The available data and the problem setup allow the usage of Self Supervised Learning in order to train the models. The baseline architecture is an Attention based Reccurent network adapted to work with MPC like inputs. The proposed networks are faster, better at exploiting larger data volumes and are almost as good as baseline networks in terms of prediction performance. The proposed architecture family called Delay can be used in a real scenario to control systems with delayed responses with respect to its controls or inputs. Ablation studies show that the presence of delay kernels are vital to obtain any learning in proposed architecture. Code and some experimental data are available online.

Machine learning (ML) holds great potential for accurately forecasting treatment outcomes over time, which could ultimately enable the adoption of more individualized treatment strategies in many practical applications. However, a significant challenge that has been largely overlooked by the ML literature on this topic is the presence of informative sampling in observational data. When instances are observed irregularly over time, sampling times are typically not random, but rather informative -- depending on the instance's characteristics, past outcomes, and administered treatments. In this work, we formalize informative sampling as a covariate shift problem and show that it can prohibit accurate estimation of treatment outcomes if not properly accounted for. To overcome this challenge, we present a general framework for learning treatment outcomes in the presence of informative sampling using inverse intensity-weighting, and propose a novel method, TESAR-CDE, that instantiates this framework using Neural CDEs. Using a simulation environment based on a clinical use case, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in learning under informative sampling.

Recent advances to combine structured regression models and deep neural networks for better interpretability, more expressiveness, and statistically valid uncertainty quantification demonstrate the versatility of semi-structured neural networks (SSNs). We show that techniques to properly identify the contributions of the different model components in SSNs, however, lead to suboptimal network estimation, slower convergence, and degenerated or erroneous predictions. In order to solve these problems while preserving favorable model properties, we propose a non-invasive post-hoc orthogonalization (PHO) that guarantees identifiability of model components and provides better estimation and prediction quality. Our theoretical findings are supported by numerical experiments, a benchmark comparison as well as a real-world application to COVID-19 infections.

The recent success and proliferation of machine learning and deep learning have provided powerful tools, which are also utilized for encrypted traffic analysis, classification, and threat detection in computer networks. These methods, neural networks in particular, are often complex and require a huge corpus of training data. Therefore, this paper focuses on collecting a large up-to-date dataset with almost 200 fine-grained service labels and 140 million network flows extended with packet-level metadata. The number of flows is three orders of magnitude higher than in other existing public labeled datasets of encrypted traffic. The number of service labels, which is important to make the problem hard and realistic, is four times higher than in the public dataset with the most class labels. The published dataset is intended as a benchmark for identifying services in encrypted traffic. Service identification can be further extended with the task of "rejecting" unknown services, i.e., the traffic not seen during the training phase. Neural networks offer superior performance for tackling this more challenging problem. To showcase the dataset's usefulness, we implemented a neural network with a multi-modal architecture, which is the state-of-the-art approach, and achieved 97.04% classification accuracy and detected 91.94% of unknown services with 5% false positive rate.

We propose a novel machine learning approach for inferring causal variables of a target variable from observations. Our focus is on directly inferring a set of causal factors without requiring full causal graph reconstruction, which is computationally challenging in large-scale systems. The identified causal set consists of all potential regulators of the target variable under experimental settings, enabling efficient regulation when intervention costs and feasibility vary across variables. To achieve this, we train a neural network using supervised learning on simulated data to infer causality. By employing a local-inference strategy, our approach scales with linear complexity in the number of variables, efficiently scaling up to thousands of variables. Empirical results demonstrate superior performance in identifying causal relationships within large-scale gene regulatory networks, outperforming existing methods that emphasize full-graph discovery. We validate our model's generalization capability across out-of-distribution graph structures and generating mechanisms, including gene regulatory networks of E. coli and the human K562 cell line. Implementation codes are available at https://github.com/snu-mllab/Targeted-Cause-Discovery.

Self-supervision may boost model performance in downstream tasks. However, there is no principled way of selecting the self-supervised objectives that yield the most adaptable models. Here, we study this problem on daily time-series data generated from wearable sensors used to detect onset of influenza-like illness (ILI). We first show that using self-supervised learning to predict next-day time-series values allows us to learn rich representations which can be adapted to perform accurate ILI prediction. Second, we perform an empirical analysis of three different self-supervised objectives to assess their adaptability to ILI prediction. Our results show that predicting the next day's resting heart rate or time-in-bed during sleep provides better representations for ILI prediction. These findings add to previous work demonstrating the practical application of self-supervised learning from activity data to improve health predictions.

The growing interest in machine learning problems over graphs with additional node information such as texts, images, or labels has popularized methods that require the costly operation of processing the entire graph. Yet, little effort has been made to the development of fast local methods (i.e. without accessing the entire graph) that extract useful information from such data. To that end, we propose a study of local graph clustering using noisy node labels as a proxy for additional node information. In this setting, nodes receive initial binary labels based on cluster affiliation: 1 if they belong to the target cluster and 0 otherwise. Subsequently, a fraction of these labels is flipped. We investigate the benefits of incorporating noisy labels for local graph clustering. By constructing a weighted graph with such labels, we study the performance of graph diffusion-based local clustering method on both the original and the weighted graphs. From a theoretical perspective, we consider recovering an unknown target cluster with a single seed node in a random graph with independent noisy node labels. We provide sufficient conditions on the label noise under which, with high probability, using diffusion in the weighted graph yields a more accurate recovery of the target cluster. This approach proves more effective than using the given labels alone or using diffusion in the label-free original graph. Empirically, we show that reliable node labels can be obtained with just a few samples from an attributed graph. Moreover, utilizing these labels via diffusion in the weighted graph leads to significantly better local clustering performance across several real-world datasets, improving F1 scores by up to 13%.

Human mobility has a significant impact on several layers of society, from infrastructural planning and economics to the spread of diseases and crime. Representing the system as a complex network, in which nodes are assigned to regions (e.g., a city) and links indicate the flow of people between two of them, physics-inspired models have been proposed to quantify the number of people migrating from one city to the other. Despite the advances made by these models, our ability to predict the number of commuters and reconstruct mobility networks remains limited. Here, we propose an alternative approach using machine learning and 22 urban indicators to predict the flow of people and reconstruct the intercity commuters network. Our results reveal that predictions based on machine learning algorithms and urban indicators can reconstruct the commuters network with 90.4% of accuracy and describe 77.6% of the variance observed in the flow of people between cities. We also identify essential features to recover the network structure and the urban indicators mostly related to commuting patterns. As previously reported, distance plays a significant role in commuting, but other indicators, such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and unemployment rate, are also driven-forces for people to commute. We believe that our results shed new lights on the modeling of migration and reinforce the role of urban indicators on commuting patterns. Also, because link-prediction and network reconstruction are still open challenges in network science, our results have implications in other areas, like economics, social sciences, and biology, where node attributes can give us information about the existence of links connecting entities in the network.

We introduce the Cisco Time Series Model, a univariate zero-shot forecaster. This time series foundation model is the result of a general architectural innovation to a time series model enabling it to accept multiresolution input, applied to a popular decoder-only time series model (TimesFM). The resulting multiresolution decoder-only model is trained on over 300B unique data points, with more than half coming from the observability domain. Quantitative and qualitative evaluations demonstrate that the resulting model achieves superior performance on observability datasets while retaining very similar performance on a standard general-purpose forecasting benchmark (GIFT-Eval), and suggest that the multiresolution structure enables the model to make more accurate predictions on long context input.

In recent years, many large directed networks such as online social networks are collected with the help of powerful data engineering and data storage techniques. Analyses of such networks attract significant attention from both the academics and industries. However, analyses of large directed networks are often time-consuming and expensive because the complexities of a lot of graph algorithms are often polynomial with the size of the graph. Hence, sampling algorithms that can generate graphs preserving properties of original graph are of great importance because they can speed up the analysis process. We propose a promising framework to sample directed graphs: Construct a sample graph with linearly rescaled Joint Degree Matrix (JDM) and Degree Correlation Matrix (DCM). Previous work shows that graphs with the same JDM and DCM will have a range of very similar graph properties. We also conduct experiments on real-world datasets to show that the numbers of non-zero entries in JDM and DCM are quite small compared to the number of edges and nodes. Adopting this framework, we propose a novel graph sampling algorithm that can provably preserves in-degree and out-degree distributions, which are two most fundamental properties of a graph. We also prove the upper bound for deviations in the joint degree distribution and degree correlation distribution, which correspond to JDM and DCM. Besides, we prove that the deviations in these distributions are negatively correlated with the sparsity of the JDM and DCM. Considering that these two matrices are always quite sparse, we believe that proposed algorithm will have a better-than-theory performance on real-world large directed networks.

Much of the excitement in modern AI is driven by the observation that scaling up existing systems leads to better performance. But does better performance necessarily imply better internal representations? While the representational optimist assumes it must, this position paper challenges that view. We compare neural networks evolved through an open-ended search process to networks trained via conventional stochastic gradient descent (SGD) on the simple task of generating a single image. This minimal setup offers a unique advantage: each hidden neuron's full functional behavior can be easily visualized as an image, thus revealing how the network's output behavior is internally constructed neuron by neuron. The result is striking: while both networks produce the same output behavior, their internal representations differ dramatically. The SGD-trained networks exhibit a form of disorganization that we term fractured entangled representation (FER). Interestingly, the evolved networks largely lack FER, even approaching a unified factored representation (UFR). In large models, FER may be degrading core model capacities like generalization, creativity, and (continual) learning. Therefore, understanding and mitigating FER could be critical to the future of representation learning.

Earth system models suffer from various structural and parametric errors in their representation of nonlinear, multi-scale processes, leading to uncertainties in their long-term projections. The effects of many of these errors (particularly those due to fast physics) can be quantified in short-term simulations, e.g., as differences between the predicted and observed states (analysis increments). With the increase in the availability of high-quality observations and simulations, learning nudging from these increments to correct model errors has become an active research area. However, most studies focus on using neural networks, which while powerful, are hard to interpret, are data-hungry, and poorly generalize out-of-distribution. Here, we show the capabilities of Model Error Discovery with Interpretability and Data Assimilation (MEDIDA), a general, data-efficient framework that uses sparsity-promoting equation-discovery techniques to learn model errors from analysis increments. Using two-layer quasi-geostrophic turbulence as the test case, MEDIDA is shown to successfully discover various linear and nonlinear structural/parametric errors when full observations are available. Discovery from spatially sparse observations is found to require highly accurate interpolation schemes. While NNs have shown success as interpolators in recent studies, here, they are found inadequate due to their inability to accurately represent small scales, a phenomenon known as spectral bias. We show that a general remedy, adding a random Fourier feature layer to the NN, resolves this issue enabling MEDIDA to successfully discover model errors from sparse observations. These promising results suggest that with further development, MEDIDA could be scaled up to models of the Earth system and real observations.

Wikipedia relies on an extensive review process to verify that the content of each individual page is unbiased and presents a neutral point of view. Less attention has been paid to possible biases in the hyperlink structure of Wikipedia, which has a significant influence on the user's exploration process when visiting more than one page. The evaluation of hyperlink bias is challenging because it depends on the global view rather than the text of individual pages. In this paper, we focus on the influence of the interconnect topology between articles describing complementary aspects of polarizing topics. We introduce a novel measure of exposure to diverse information to quantify users' exposure to different aspects of a topic throughout an entire surfing session, rather than just one click ahead. We apply this measure to six polarizing topics (e.g., gun control and gun right), and we identify cases in which the network topology significantly limits the exposure of users to diverse information on the topic, encouraging users to remain in a knowledge bubble. Our findings demonstrate the importance of evaluating Wikipedia's network structure in addition to the extensive review of individual articles.

Complex sensors such as LiDAR, RADAR, and event cameras have proliferated in autonomous robotics to enhance perception and understanding of the environment. Meanwhile, these sensors are also vulnerable to diverse failure mechanisms that can intricately interact with their operation environment. In parallel, the limited availability of training data on complex sensors also affects the reliability of their deep learning-based prediction flow, where their prediction models can fail to generalize to environments not adequately captured in the training set. To address these reliability concerns, this paper introduces STARNet, a Sensor Trustworthiness and Anomaly Recognition Network designed to detect untrustworthy sensor streams that may arise from sensor malfunctions and/or challenging environments. We specifically benchmark STARNet on LiDAR and camera data. STARNet employs the concept of approximated likelihood regret, a gradient-free framework tailored for low-complexity hardware, especially those with only fixed-point precision capabilities. Through extensive simulations, we demonstrate the efficacy of STARNet in detecting untrustworthy sensor streams in unimodal and multimodal settings. In particular, the network shows superior performance in addressing internal sensor failures, such as cross-sensor interference and crosstalk. In diverse test scenarios involving adverse weather and sensor malfunctions, we show that STARNet enhances prediction accuracy by approximately 10% by filtering out untrustworthy sensor streams. STARNet is publicly available at https://github.com/sinatayebati/STARNet.

Neural networks often exhibit emergent behavior, where qualitatively new capabilities arise from scaling up the amount of parameters, training data, or training steps. One approach to understanding emergence is to find continuous progress measures that underlie the seemingly discontinuous qualitative changes. We argue that progress measures can be found via mechanistic interpretability: reverse-engineering learned behaviors into their individual components. As a case study, we investigate the recently-discovered phenomenon of ``grokking'' exhibited by small transformers trained on modular addition tasks. We fully reverse engineer the algorithm learned by these networks, which uses discrete Fourier transforms and trigonometric identities to convert addition to rotation about a circle. We confirm the algorithm by analyzing the activations and weights and by performing ablations in Fourier space. Based on this understanding, we define progress measures that allow us to study the dynamics of training and split training into three continuous phases: memorization, circuit formation, and cleanup. Our results show that grokking, rather than being a sudden shift, arises from the gradual amplification of structured mechanisms encoded in the weights, followed by the later removal of memorizing components.

Virtual sensing techniques allow for inferring signals at new unmonitored locations by exploiting spatio-temporal measurements coming from physical sensors at different locations. However, as the sensor coverage becomes sparse due to costs or other constraints, physical proximity cannot be used to support interpolation. In this paper, we overcome this challenge by leveraging dependencies between the target variable and a set of correlated variables (covariates) that can frequently be associated with each location of interest. From this viewpoint, covariates provide partial observability, and the problem consists of inferring values for unobserved channels by exploiting observations at other locations to learn how such variables can correlate. We introduce a novel graph-based methodology to exploit such relationships and design a graph deep learning architecture, named GgNet, implementing the framework. The proposed approach relies on propagating information over a nested graph structure that is used to learn dependencies between variables as well as locations. GgNet is extensively evaluated under different virtual sensing scenarios, demonstrating higher reconstruction accuracy compared to the state-of-the-art.

Quantifying the causal influence of input features within neural networks has become a topic of increasing interest. Existing approaches typically assess direct, indirect, and total causal effects. This work treats NNs as structural causal models (SCMs) and extends our focus to include intrinsic causal contributions (ICC). We propose an identifiable generative post-hoc framework for quantifying ICC. We also draw a relationship between ICC and Sobol' indices. Our experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that ICC generates more intuitive and reliable explanations compared to existing global explanation techniques.

In this paper, we present LiGNN, a deployed large-scale Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) Framework. We share our insight on developing and deployment of GNNs at large scale at LinkedIn. We present a set of algorithmic improvements to the quality of GNN representation learning including temporal graph architectures with long term losses, effective cold start solutions via graph densification, ID embeddings and multi-hop neighbor sampling. We explain how we built and sped up by 7x our large-scale training on LinkedIn graphs with adaptive sampling of neighbors, grouping and slicing of training data batches, specialized shared-memory queue and local gradient optimization. We summarize our deployment lessons and learnings gathered from A/B test experiments. The techniques presented in this work have contributed to an approximate relative improvements of 1% of Job application hearing back rate, 2% Ads CTR lift, 0.5% of Feed engaged daily active users, 0.2% session lift and 0.1% weekly active user lift from people recommendation. We believe that this work can provide practical solutions and insights for engineers who are interested in applying Graph neural networks at large scale.

About two million U.S. corporations and partnerships are linked to each other and human investors by about 15 million owner-subsidiary links. Comparable social networks such as corporate board memberships and socially-built systems such as the network of Internet links are "small worlds," meaning a network with a small diameter and link densities with a power-law distribution, but these properties had not yet been measured for the business entity network. This article shows that both inbound links and outbound links display a power-law distribution with a coefficient of concentration estimable to within a generally narrow confidence interval, overall, for subnetworks including only business entities, only for the great connected component of the network, and in subnetworks with edges associated with certain industries, for all years 2009-2021. In contrast to other networks with power-law distributed link densities, the network is mostly a tree, and has a diameter an order of magnitude larger than a small-world network with the same link distribution. The regularity of the power-law distribution indicates that its coefficient can be used as a new, well-defined macroeconomic metric for the concentration of capital flows in an economy. Economists might use it as a new measure of market concentration which is more comprehensive than measures based only on the few biggest firms. Comparing capital link concentrations across countries would facilitate modeling the relationship between business network characteristics and other macroeconomic indicators.

Much research in machine learning involves finding appropriate inductive biases (e.g. convolutional neural networks, momentum-based optimizers, transformers) to promote generalization on tasks. However, quantification of the amount of inductive bias associated with these architectures and hyperparameters has been limited. We propose a novel method for efficiently computing the inductive bias required for generalization on a task with a fixed training data budget; formally, this corresponds to the amount of information required to specify well-generalizing models within a specific hypothesis space of models. Our approach involves modeling the loss distribution of random hypotheses drawn from a hypothesis space to estimate the required inductive bias for a task relative to these hypotheses. Unlike prior work, our method provides a direct estimate of inductive bias without using bounds and is applicable to diverse hypothesis spaces. Moreover, we derive approximation error bounds for our estimation approach in terms of the number of sampled hypotheses. Consistent with prior results, our empirical results demonstrate that higher dimensional tasks require greater inductive bias. We show that relative to other expressive model classes, neural networks as a model class encode large amounts of inductive bias. Furthermore, our measure quantifies the relative difference in inductive bias between different neural network architectures. Our proposed inductive bias metric provides an information-theoretic interpretation of the benefits of specific model architectures for certain tasks and provides a quantitative guide to developing tasks requiring greater inductive bias, thereby encouraging the development of more powerful inductive biases.

Multivariate time series is prevalent in many scientific and industrial domains. Modeling multivariate signals is challenging due to their long-range temporal dependencies and intricate interactions--both direct and indirect. To confront these complexities, we introduce a method of representing multivariate signals as nodes in a graph with edges indicating interdependency between them. Specifically, we leverage graph neural networks (GNN) and attention mechanisms to efficiently learn the underlying relationships within the time series data. Moreover, we suggest employing hierarchical signal decompositions running over the graphs to capture multiple spatial dependencies. The effectiveness of our proposed model is evaluated across various real-world benchmark datasets designed for long-term forecasting tasks. The results consistently showcase the superiority of our model, achieving an average 23\% reduction in mean squared error (MSE) compared to existing models.

With the emergence of data marketplaces, the demand for methods to assess the value of data has increased significantly. While numerous techniques have been proposed for this purpose, none have specifically addressed graphs as the main data modality. Graphs are widely used across various fields, ranging from chemical molecules to social networks. In this study, we break down graphs into two main components: structural and featural, and we focus on evaluating data without relying on specific task-related metrics, making it applicable in practical scenarios where validation requirements may be lacking. We introduce a novel framework called blind message passing, which aligns the seller's and buyer's graphs using a shared node permutation based on graph matching. This allows us to utilize the graph Wasserstein distance to quantify the differences in the structural distribution of graph datasets, called the structural disparities. We then consider featural aspects of buyers' and sellers' graphs for data valuation and capture their statistical similarities and differences, referred to as relevance and diversity, respectively. Our approach ensures that buyers and sellers remain unaware of each other's datasets. Our experiments on real datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in capturing the relevance, diversity, and structural disparities of seller data for buyers, particularly in graph-based data valuation scenarios.

Despite the widespread application of latent factor analysis, existing methods suffer from the following weaknesses: requiring the number of factors to be known, lack of theoretical guarantees for learning the model structure, and nonidentifiability of the parameters due to rotation invariance properties of the likelihood. We address these concerns by proposing a fast correlation thresholding (CT) algorithm that simultaneously learns the number of latent factors and a rotationally identifiable model structure. Our novel approach translates this structure learning problem into the search for so-called independent maximal cliques in a thresholded correlation graph that can be easily constructed from the observed data. Our clique analysis technique scales well up to thousands of variables, while competing methods are not applicable in a reasonable amount of running time. We establish a finite-sample error bound and high-dimensional consistency for the structure learning of our method. Through a series of simulation studies and a real data example, we show that the CT algorithm is an accurate method for learning the structure of factor analysis models and is robust to violations of its assumptions.

The performance of a language model has been shown to be effectively modeled as a power-law in its parameter count. Here we study the scaling behaviors of Routing Networks: architectures that conditionally use only a subset of their parameters while processing an input. For these models, parameter count and computational requirement form two independent axes along which an increase leads to better performance. In this work we derive and justify scaling laws defined on these two variables which generalize those known for standard language models and describe the performance of a wide range of routing architectures trained via three different techniques. Afterwards we provide two applications of these laws: first deriving an Effective Parameter Count along which all models scale at the same rate, and then using the scaling coefficients to give a quantitative comparison of the three routing techniques considered. Our analysis derives from an extensive evaluation of Routing Networks across five orders of magnitude of size, including models with hundreds of experts and hundreds of billions of parameters.

The recent rapid development of deep learning has laid a milestone in industrial Image Anomaly Detection (IAD). In this paper, we provide a comprehensive review of deep learning-based image anomaly detection techniques, from the perspectives of neural network architectures, levels of supervision, loss functions, metrics and datasets. In addition, we extract the new setting from industrial manufacturing and review the current IAD approaches under our proposed our new setting. Moreover, we highlight several opening challenges for image anomaly detection. The merits and downsides of representative network architectures under varying supervision are discussed. Finally, we summarize the research findings and point out future research directions. More resources are available at https://github.com/M-3LAB/awesome-industrial-anomaly-detection.

Interpretation and explanation of deep models is critical towards wide adoption of systems that rely on them. In this paper, we propose a novel scheme for both interpretation as well as explanation in which, given a pretrained model, we automatically identify internal features relevant for the set of classes considered by the model, without relying on additional annotations. We interpret the model through average visualizations of this reduced set of features. Then, at test time, we explain the network prediction by accompanying the predicted class label with supporting visualizations derived from the identified features. In addition, we propose a method to address the artifacts introduced by stridded operations in deconvNet-based visualizations. Moreover, we introduce an8Flower, a dataset specifically designed for objective quantitative evaluation of methods for visual explanation.Experiments on the MNIST,ILSVRC12,Fashion144k and an8Flower datasets show that our method produces detailed explanations with good coverage of relevant features of the classes of interest

Prediction tasks over nodes and edges in networks require careful effort in engineering features used by learning algorithms. Recent research in the broader field of representation learning has led to significant progress in automating prediction by learning the features themselves. However, present feature learning approaches are not expressive enough to capture the diversity of connectivity patterns observed in networks. Here we propose node2vec, an algorithmic framework for learning continuous feature representations for nodes in networks. In node2vec, we learn a mapping of nodes to a low-dimensional space of features that maximizes the likelihood of preserving network neighborhoods of nodes. We define a flexible notion of a node's network neighborhood and design a biased random walk procedure, which efficiently explores diverse neighborhoods. Our algorithm generalizes prior work which is based on rigid notions of network neighborhoods, and we argue that the added flexibility in exploring neighborhoods is the key to learning richer representations. We demonstrate the efficacy of node2vec over existing state-of-the-art techniques on multi-label classification and link prediction in several real-world networks from diverse domains. Taken together, our work represents a new way for efficiently learning state-of-the-art task-independent representations in complex networks.

Graph Neural Networks operate through bottom-up message-passing, fundamentally differing from human visual perception, which intuitively captures global structures first. We investigate the underappreciated potential of vision models for graph understanding, finding they achieve performance comparable to GNNs on established benchmarks while exhibiting distinctly different learning patterns. These divergent behaviors, combined with limitations of existing benchmarks that conflate domain features with topological understanding, motivate our introduction of GraphAbstract. This benchmark evaluates models' ability to perceive global graph properties as humans do: recognizing organizational archetypes, detecting symmetry, sensing connectivity strength, and identifying critical elements. Our results reveal that vision models significantly outperform GNNs on tasks requiring holistic structural understanding and maintain generalizability across varying graph scales, while GNNs struggle with global pattern abstraction and degrade with increasing graph size. This work demonstrates that vision models possess remarkable yet underutilized capabilities for graph structural understanding, particularly for problems requiring global topological awareness and scale-invariant reasoning. These findings open new avenues to leverage this underappreciated potential for developing more effective graph foundation models for tasks dominated by holistic pattern recognition.

Efforts to overcome catastrophic forgetting have primarily centered around developing more effective Continual Learning (CL) methods. In contrast, less attention was devoted to analyzing the role of network architecture design (e.g., network depth, width, and components) in contributing to CL. This paper seeks to bridge this gap between network architecture design and CL, and to present a holistic study on the impact of network architectures on CL. This work considers architecture design at the network scaling level, i.e., width and depth, and also at the network components, i.e., skip connections, global pooling layers, and down-sampling. In both cases, we first derive insights through systematically exploring how architectural designs affect CL. Then, grounded in these insights, we craft a specialized search space for CL and further propose a simple yet effective ArchCraft method to steer a CL-friendly architecture, namely, this method recrafts AlexNet/ResNet into AlexAC/ResAC. Experimental validation across various CL settings and scenarios demonstrates that improved architectures are parameter-efficient, achieving state-of-the-art performance of CL while being 86%, 61%, and 97% more compact in terms of parameters than the naive CL architecture in Task IL and Class IL. Code is available at https://github.com/byyx666/ArchCraft.

The initial state of neural networks plays a central role in conditioning the subsequent training dynamics. In the context of classification problems, we provide a theoretical analysis demonstrating that the structure of a neural network can condition the model to assign all predictions to the same class, even before the beginning of training, and in the absence of explicit biases. We show that the presence of this phenomenon, which we call "Initial Guessing Bias" (IGB), depends on architectural choices such as activation functions, max-pooling layers, and network depth. Our analysis of IGB has practical consequences, in that it guides architecture selection and initialization. We also highlight theoretical consequences, such as the breakdown of node-permutation symmetry, the violation of self-averaging, the validity of some mean-field approximations, and the non-trivial differences arising with depth.

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) are popular models for graph learning problems. GNNs show strong empirical performance in many practical tasks. However, the theoretical properties have not been completely elucidated. In this paper, we investigate whether GNNs can exploit the graph structure from the perspective of the expressive power of GNNs. In our analysis, we consider graph generation processes that are controlled by hidden (or latent) node features, which contain all information about the graph structure. A typical example of this framework is kNN graphs constructed from the hidden features. In our main results, we show that GNNs can recover the hidden node features from the input graph alone, even when all node features, including the hidden features themselves and any indirect hints, are unavailable. GNNs can further use the recovered node features for downstream tasks. These results show that GNNs can fully exploit the graph structure by themselves, and in effect, GNNs can use both the hidden and explicit node features for downstream tasks. In the experiments, we confirm the validity of our results by showing that GNNs can accurately recover the hidden features using a GNN architecture built based on our theoretical analysis.