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SubscribeShort-Long Convolutions Help Hardware-Efficient Linear Attention to Focus on Long Sequences
To mitigate the computational complexity in the self-attention mechanism on long sequences, linear attention utilizes computation tricks to achieve linear complexity, while state space models (SSMs) popularize a favorable practice of using non-data-dependent memory pattern, i.e., emphasize the near and neglect the distant, to processing sequences. Recent studies have shown the priorities by combining them as one. However, the efficiency of linear attention remains only at the theoretical level in a causal setting, and SSMs require various designed constraints to operate effectively on specific data. Therefore, in order to unveil the true power of the hybrid design, the following two issues need to be addressed: (1) hardware-efficient implementation for linear attention and (2) stabilization of SSMs. To achieve this, we leverage the thought of tiling and hierarchy to propose CHELA (short-long Convolutions with Hardware-Efficient Linear Attention), which replaces SSMs with short-long convolutions and implements linear attention in a divide-and-conquer manner. This approach enjoys global abstraction and data-dependent selection from stable SSM and linear attention while maintaining real linear complexity. Our comprehensive experiments on the Long Range Arena benchmark and language modeling tasks demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.
Lightning Attention-2: A Free Lunch for Handling Unlimited Sequence Lengths in Large Language Models
Linear attention is an efficient attention mechanism that has recently emerged as a promising alternative to conventional softmax attention. With its ability to process tokens in linear computational complexities, linear attention, in theory, can handle sequences of unlimited length without sacrificing speed, i.e., maintaining a constant training speed for various sequence lengths with a fixed memory consumption. However, due to the issue with cumulative summation (cumsum), current linear attention algorithms cannot demonstrate their theoretical advantage in a causal setting. In this paper, we present Lightning Attention-2, the first linear attention implementation that enables linear attention to realize its theoretical computational benefits. To achieve this, we leverage the thought of tiling, separately handling the intra-block and inter-block components in linear attention calculation. Specifically, we utilize the conventional attention computation mechanism for the intra-blocks and apply linear attention kernel tricks for the inter-blocks. A tiling technique is adopted through both forward and backward procedures to take full advantage of the GPU hardware. We implement our algorithm in Triton to make it IO-aware and hardware-friendly. Various experiments are conducted on different model sizes and sequence lengths. Lightning Attention-2 retains consistent training and inference speed regardless of input sequence length and is significantly faster than other attention mechanisms. The source code is available at https://github.com/OpenNLPLab/lightning-attention.
Additive Causal Bandits with Unknown Graph
We explore algorithms to select actions in the causal bandit setting where the learner can choose to intervene on a set of random variables related by a causal graph, and the learner sequentially chooses interventions and observes a sample from the interventional distribution. The learner's goal is to quickly find the intervention, among all interventions on observable variables, that maximizes the expectation of an outcome variable. We depart from previous literature by assuming no knowledge of the causal graph except that latent confounders between the outcome and its ancestors are not present. We first show that the unknown graph problem can be exponentially hard in the parents of the outcome. To remedy this, we adopt an additional additive assumption on the outcome which allows us to solve the problem by casting it as an additive combinatorial linear bandit problem with full-bandit feedback. We propose a novel action-elimination algorithm for this setting, show how to apply this algorithm to the causal bandit problem, provide sample complexity bounds, and empirically validate our findings on a suite of randomly generated causal models, effectively showing that one does not need to explicitly learn the parents of the outcome to identify the best intervention.
Causal Strategic Classification: A Tale of Two Shifts
When users can benefit from certain predictive outcomes, they may be prone to act to achieve those outcome, e.g., by strategically modifying their features. The goal in strategic classification is therefore to train predictive models that are robust to such behavior. However, the conventional framework assumes that changing features does not change actual outcomes, which depicts users as "gaming" the system. Here we remove this assumption, and study learning in a causal strategic setting where true outcomes do change. Focusing on accuracy as our primary objective, we show how strategic behavior and causal effects underlie two complementing forms of distribution shift. We characterize these shifts, and propose a learning algorithm that balances between these two forces and over time, and permits end-to-end training. Experiments on synthetic and semi-synthetic data demonstrate the utility of our approach.
Sequential Causal Normal Form Games: Theory, Computation, and Strategic Signaling
Can classical game-theoretic frameworks be extended to capture the bounded rationality and causal reasoning of AI agents? We investigate this question by extending Causal Normal Form Games (CNFGs) to sequential settings, introducing Sequential Causal Multi-Agent Systems (S-CMAS) that incorporate Pearl's Causal Hierarchy across leader-follower interactions. While theoretically elegant -- we prove PSPACE-completeness, develop equilibrium refinements, and establish connections to signaling theory -- our comprehensive empirical investigation reveals a critical limitation: S-CNE provides zero welfare improvement over classical Stackelberg equilibrium across all tested scenarios. Through 50+ Monte Carlo simulations and hand-crafted synthetic examples, we demonstrate that backward induction with rational best-response eliminates any strategic advantage from causal layer distinctions. We construct a theoretical example illustrating conditions where benefits could emerge (ε-rational satisficing followers), though implementation confirms that even relaxed rationality assumptions prove insufficient when good instincts align with optimal play. This negative result provides valuable insight: classical game-theoretic extensions grounded in rational choice are fundamentally incompatible with causal reasoning advantages, motivating new theoretical frameworks beyond standard Nash equilibrium for agentic AI.
Sequential Underspecified Instrument Selection for Cause-Effect Estimation
Instrumental variable (IV) methods are used to estimate causal effects in settings with unobserved confounding, where we cannot directly experiment on the treatment variable. Instruments are variables which only affect the outcome indirectly via the treatment variable(s). Most IV applications focus on low-dimensional treatments and crucially require at least as many instruments as treatments. This assumption is restrictive: in the natural sciences we often seek to infer causal effects of high-dimensional treatments (e.g., the effect of gene expressions or microbiota on health and disease), but can only run few experiments with a limited number of instruments (e.g., drugs or antibiotics). In such underspecified problems, the full treatment effect is not identifiable in a single experiment even in the linear case. We show that one can still reliably recover the projection of the treatment effect onto the instrumented subspace and develop techniques to consistently combine such partial estimates from different sets of instruments. We then leverage our combined estimators in an algorithm that iteratively proposes the most informative instruments at each round of experimentation to maximize the overall information about the full causal effect.
Supervised In-Context Fine-Tuning for Generative Sequence Labeling
Sequence labeling (SL) tasks, where labels are assigned to tokens, are abundant in NLP (e.g., named entity recognition and aspect-based sentiment analysis). Owing to the intuition that they require bidirectional context, SL tasks are commonly tackled with encoder-only models. Recent work also shows that removing the causal mask in fine-tuning enables decoder-based LLMs to become effective token classifiers. Less work, however, focused on (supervised) generative SL, a more natural setting for causal LLMs. Due to their rapid scaling, causal LLMs applied to SL are expected to outperform encoders, whose own development has stagnated. In this work, we propose supervised in-context fine-tuning (SIFT) for generative SL. SIFT casts SL tasks as constrained response generation, natural to LLMs, combining (1) in-context learning (ICL) from demonstrations with (2) supervised fine-tuning. SIFT considerably outperforms both ICL and decoder-as-encoder fine-tuning baselines on a range of standard SL tasks. We further find that although long context hinders the performance of generative SL in both ICL and SIFT, this deficiency can be mitigated by removing the instruction, as instructions are shown to be largely unnecessary for achieving strong SL performance with SIFT. Our findings highlight strengths and limitations of SL with LLMs, underscoring the importance of a response-based generative task formulation for effective SL performance.
Function Vectors in Large Language Models
We report the presence of a simple neural mechanism that represents an input-output function as a vector within autoregressive transformer language models (LMs). Using causal mediation analysis on a diverse range of in-context-learning (ICL) tasks, we find that a small number attention heads transport a compact representation of the demonstrated task, which we call a function vector (FV). FVs are robust to changes in context, i.e., they trigger execution of the task on inputs such as zero-shot and natural text settings that do not resemble the ICL contexts from which they are collected. We test FVs across a range of tasks, models, and layers and find strong causal effects across settings in middle layers. We investigate the internal structure of FVs and find while that they often contain information that encodes the output space of the function, this information alone is not sufficient to reconstruct an FV. Finally, we test semantic vector composition in FVs, and find that to some extent they can be summed to create vectors that trigger new complex tasks. Taken together, our findings suggest that LLMs contain internal abstractions of general-purpose functions that can be invoked in a variety of contexts.
Active causal structure learning with advice
We introduce the problem of active causal structure learning with advice. In the typical well-studied setting, the learning algorithm is given the essential graph for the observational distribution and is asked to recover the underlying causal directed acyclic graph (DAG) G^* while minimizing the number of interventions made. In our setting, we are additionally given side information about G^* as advice, e.g. a DAG G purported to be G^*. We ask whether the learning algorithm can benefit from the advice when it is close to being correct, while still having worst-case guarantees even when the advice is arbitrarily bad. Our work is in the same space as the growing body of research on algorithms with predictions. When the advice is a DAG G, we design an adaptive search algorithm to recover G^* whose intervention cost is at most O(max{1, log psi}) times the cost for verifying G^*; here, psi is a distance measure between G and G^* that is upper bounded by the number of variables n, and is exactly 0 when G=G^*. Our approximation factor matches the state-of-the-art for the advice-less setting.
Causal Fairness under Unobserved Confounding: A Neural Sensitivity Framework
Fairness for machine learning predictions is widely required in practice for legal, ethical, and societal reasons. Existing work typically focuses on settings without unobserved confounding, even though unobserved confounding can lead to severe violations of causal fairness and, thus, unfair predictions. In this work, we analyze the sensitivity of causal fairness to unobserved confounding. Our contributions are three-fold. First, we derive bounds for causal fairness metrics under different sources of unobserved confounding. This enables practitioners to examine the sensitivity of their machine learning models to unobserved confounding in fairness-critical applications. Second, we propose a novel neural framework for learning fair predictions, which allows us to offer worst-case guarantees of the extent to which causal fairness can be violated due to unobserved confounding. Third, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework in a series of experiments, including a real-world case study about predicting prison sentences. To the best of our knowledge, ours is the first work to study causal fairness under unobserved confounding. To this end, our work is of direct practical value as a refutation strategy to ensure the fairness of predictions in high-stakes applications.
An Analysis of Causal Effect Estimation using Outcome Invariant Data Augmentation
The technique of data augmentation (DA) is often used in machine learning for regularization purposes to better generalize under i.i.d. settings. In this work, we present a unifying framework with topics in causal inference to make a case for the use of DA beyond just the i.i.d. setting, but for generalization across interventions as well. Specifically, we argue that when the outcome generating mechanism is invariant to our choice of DA, then such augmentations can effectively be thought of as interventions on the treatment generating mechanism itself. This can potentially help to reduce bias in causal effect estimation arising from hidden confounders. In the presence of such unobserved confounding we typically make use of instrumental variables (IVs) -- sources of treatment randomization that are conditionally independent of the outcome. However, IVs may not be as readily available as DA for many applications, which is the main motivation behind this work. By appropriately regularizing IV based estimators, we introduce the concept of IV-like (IVL) regression for mitigating confounding bias and improving predictive performance across interventions even when certain IV properties are relaxed. Finally, we cast parameterized DA as an IVL regression problem and show that when used in composition can simulate a worst-case application of such DA, further improving performance on causal estimation and generalization tasks beyond what simple DA may offer. This is shown both theoretically for the population case and via simulation experiments for the finite sample case using a simple linear example. We also present real data experiments to support our case.
Object-centric architectures enable efficient causal representation learning
Causal representation learning has showed a variety of settings in which we can disentangle latent variables with identifiability guarantees (up to some reasonable equivalence class). Common to all of these approaches is the assumption that (1) the latent variables are represented as d-dimensional vectors, and (2) that the observations are the output of some injective generative function of these latent variables. While these assumptions appear benign, we show that when the observations are of multiple objects, the generative function is no longer injective and disentanglement fails in practice. We can address this failure by combining recent developments in object-centric learning and causal representation learning. By modifying the Slot Attention architecture arXiv:2006.15055, we develop an object-centric architecture that leverages weak supervision from sparse perturbations to disentangle each object's properties. This approach is more data-efficient in the sense that it requires significantly fewer perturbations than a comparable approach that encodes to a Euclidean space and we show that this approach successfully disentangles the properties of a set of objects in a series of simple image-based disentanglement experiments.
COKE: Causal Discovery with Chronological Order and Expert Knowledge in High Proportion of Missing Manufacturing Data
Understanding causal relationships between machines is crucial for fault diagnosis and optimization in manufacturing processes. Real-world datasets frequently exhibit up to 90% missing data and high dimensionality from hundreds of sensors. These datasets also include domain-specific expert knowledge and chronological order information, reflecting the recording order across different machines, which is pivotal for discerning causal relationships within the manufacturing data. However, previous methods for handling missing data in scenarios akin to real-world conditions have not been able to effectively utilize expert knowledge. Conversely, prior methods that can incorporate expert knowledge struggle with datasets that exhibit missing values. Therefore, we propose COKE to construct causal graphs in manufacturing datasets by leveraging expert knowledge and chronological order among sensors without imputing missing data. Utilizing the characteristics of the recipe, we maximize the use of samples with missing values, derive embeddings from intersections with an initial graph that incorporates expert knowledge and chronological order, and create a sensor ordering graph. The graph-generating process has been optimized by an actor-critic architecture to obtain a final graph that has a maximum reward. Experimental evaluations in diverse settings of sensor quantities and missing proportions demonstrate that our approach compared with the benchmark methods shows an average improvement of 39.9% in the F1-score. Moreover, the F1-score improvement can reach 62.6% when considering the configuration similar to real-world datasets, and 85.0% in real-world semiconductor datasets. The source code is available at https://github.com/OuTingYun/COKE.
Multi-View Causal Representation Learning with Partial Observability
We present a unified framework for studying the identifiability of representations learned from simultaneously observed views, such as different data modalities. We allow a partially observed setting in which each view constitutes a nonlinear mixture of a subset of underlying latent variables, which can be causally related. We prove that the information shared across all subsets of any number of views can be learned up to a smooth bijection using contrastive learning and a single encoder per view. We also provide graphical criteria indicating which latent variables can be identified through a simple set of rules, which we refer to as identifiability algebra. Our general framework and theoretical results unify and extend several previous works on multi-view nonlinear ICA, disentanglement, and causal representation learning. We experimentally validate our claims on numerical, image, and multi-modal data sets. Further, we demonstrate that the performance of prior methods is recovered in different special cases of our setup. Overall, we find that access to multiple partial views enables us to identify a more fine-grained representation, under the generally milder assumption of partial observability.
New metrics and search algorithms for weighted causal DAGs
Recovering causal relationships from data is an important problem. Using observational data, one can typically only recover causal graphs up to a Markov equivalence class and additional assumptions or interventional data are needed for complete recovery. In this work, under some standard assumptions, we study causal graph discovery via adaptive interventions with node-dependent interventional costs. For this setting, we show that no algorithm can achieve an approximation guarantee that is asymptotically better than linear in the number of vertices with respect to the verification number; a well-established benchmark for adaptive search algorithms. Motivated by this negative result, we define a new benchmark that captures the worst-case interventional cost for any search algorithm. Furthermore, with respect to this new benchmark, we provide adaptive search algorithms that achieve logarithmic approximations under various settings: atomic, bounded size interventions and generalized cost objectives.
Maximum Causal Entropy Inverse Constrained Reinforcement Learning
When deploying artificial agents in real-world environments where they interact with humans, it is crucial that their behavior is aligned with the values, social norms or other requirements of that environment. However, many environments have implicit constraints that are difficult to specify and transfer to a learning agent. To address this challenge, we propose a novel method that utilizes the principle of maximum causal entropy to learn constraints and an optimal policy that adheres to these constraints, using demonstrations of agents that abide by the constraints. We prove convergence in a tabular setting and provide an approximation which scales to complex environments. We evaluate the effectiveness of the learned policy by assessing the reward received and the number of constraint violations, and we evaluate the learned cost function based on its transferability to other agents. Our method has been shown to outperform state-of-the-art approaches across a variety of tasks and environments, and it is able to handle problems with stochastic dynamics and a continuous state-action space.
Integrating Earth Observation Data into Causal Inference: Challenges and Opportunities
Observational studies require adjustment for confounding factors that are correlated with both the treatment and outcome. In the setting where the observed variables are tabular quantities such as average income in a neighborhood, tools have been developed for addressing such confounding. However, in many parts of the developing world, features about local communities may be scarce. In this context, satellite imagery can play an important role, serving as a proxy for the confounding variables otherwise unobserved. In this paper, we study confounder adjustment in this non-tabular setting, where patterns or objects found in satellite images contribute to the confounder bias. Using the evaluation of anti-poverty aid programs in Africa as our running example, we formalize the challenge of performing causal adjustment with such unstructured data -- what conditions are sufficient to identify causal effects, how to perform estimation, and how to quantify the ways in which certain aspects of the unstructured image object are most predictive of the treatment decision. Via simulation, we also explore the sensitivity of satellite image-based observational inference to image resolution and to misspecification of the image-associated confounder. Finally, we apply these tools in estimating the effect of anti-poverty interventions in African communities from satellite imagery.
CausalVerse: Benchmarking Causal Representation Learning with Configurable High-Fidelity Simulations
Causal Representation Learning (CRL) aims to uncover the data-generating process and identify the underlying causal variables and relations, whose evaluation remains inherently challenging due to the requirement of known ground-truth causal variables and causal structure. Existing evaluations often rely on either simplistic synthetic datasets or downstream performance on real-world tasks, generally suffering a dilemma between realism and evaluative precision. In this paper, we introduce a new benchmark for CRL using high-fidelity simulated visual data that retains both realistic visual complexity and, more importantly, access to ground-truth causal generating processes. The dataset comprises around 200 thousand images and 3 million video frames across 24 sub-scenes in four domains: static image generation, dynamic physical simulations, robotic manipulations, and traffic situation analysis. These scenarios range from static to dynamic settings, simple to complex structures, and single to multi-agent interactions, offering a comprehensive testbed that hopefully bridges the gap between rigorous evaluation and real-world applicability. In addition, we provide flexible access to the underlying causal structures, allowing users to modify or configure them to align with the required assumptions in CRL, such as available domain labels, temporal dependencies, or intervention histories. Leveraging this benchmark, we evaluated representative CRL methods across diverse paradigms and offered empirical insights to assist practitioners and newcomers in choosing or extending appropriate CRL frameworks to properly address specific types of real problems that can benefit from the CRL perspective. Welcome to visit our: Project page:https://causal-verse.github.io/, Dataset:https://huggingface.co/CausalVerse.
CausalARC: Abstract Reasoning with Causal World Models
Reasoning requires adaptation to novel problem settings under limited data and distribution shift. This work introduces CausalARC: an experimental testbed for AI reasoning in low-data and out-of-distribution regimes, modeled after the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC). Each CausalARC reasoning task is sampled from a fully specified causal world model, formally expressed as a structural causal model. Principled data augmentations provide observational, interventional, and counterfactual feedback about the world model in the form of few-shot, in-context learning demonstrations. As a proof-of-concept, we illustrate the use of CausalARC for four language model evaluation settings: (1) abstract reasoning with test-time training, (2) counterfactual reasoning with in-context learning, (3) program synthesis, and (4) causal discovery with logical reasoning.
DRCFS: Doubly Robust Causal Feature Selection
Knowing the features of a complex system that are highly relevant to a particular target variable is of fundamental interest in many areas of science. Existing approaches are often limited to linear settings, sometimes lack guarantees, and in most cases, do not scale to the problem at hand, in particular to images. We propose DRCFS, a doubly robust feature selection method for identifying the causal features even in nonlinear and high dimensional settings. We provide theoretical guarantees, illustrate necessary conditions for our assumptions, and perform extensive experiments across a wide range of simulated and semi-synthetic datasets. DRCFS significantly outperforms existing state-of-the-art methods, selecting robust features even in challenging highly non-linear and high-dimensional problems.
Causal Reasoning and Large Language Models: Opening a New Frontier for Causality
The causal capabilities of large language models (LLMs) are a matter of significant debate, with critical implications for the use of LLMs in societally impactful domains such as medicine, science, law, and policy. We conduct a "behavorial" study of LLMs to benchmark their capability in generating causal arguments. Across a wide range of tasks, we find that LLMs can generate text corresponding to correct causal arguments with high probability, surpassing the best-performing existing methods. Algorithms based on GPT-3.5 and 4 outperform existing algorithms on a pairwise causal discovery task (97%, 13 points gain), counterfactual reasoning task (92%, 20 points gain) and event causality (86% accuracy in determining necessary and sufficient causes in vignettes). We perform robustness checks across tasks and show that the capabilities cannot be explained by dataset memorization alone, especially since LLMs generalize to novel datasets that were created after the training cutoff date. That said, LLMs exhibit unpredictable failure modes, and we discuss the kinds of errors that may be improved and what are the fundamental limits of LLM-based answers. Overall, by operating on the text metadata, LLMs bring capabilities so far understood to be restricted to humans, such as using collected knowledge to generate causal graphs or identifying background causal context from natural language. As a result, LLMs may be used by human domain experts to save effort in setting up a causal analysis, one of the biggest impediments to the widespread adoption of causal methods. Given that LLMs ignore the actual data, our results also point to a fruitful research direction of developing algorithms that combine LLMs with existing causal techniques. Code and datasets are available at https://github.com/py-why/pywhy-llm.
Zero-shot causal learning
Predicting how different interventions will causally affect a specific individual is important in a variety of domains such as personalized medicine, public policy, and online marketing. There are a large number of methods to predict the effect of an existing intervention based on historical data from individuals who received it. However, in many settings it is important to predict the effects of novel interventions (e.g., a newly invented drug), which these methods do not address. Here, we consider zero-shot causal learning: predicting the personalized effects of a novel intervention. We propose CaML, a causal meta-learning framework which formulates the personalized prediction of each intervention's effect as a task. CaML trains a single meta-model across thousands of tasks, each constructed by sampling an intervention, along with its recipients and nonrecipients. By leveraging both intervention information (e.g., a drug's attributes) and individual features~(e.g., a patient's history), CaML is able to predict the personalized effects of novel interventions that do not exist at the time of training. Experimental results on real world datasets in large-scale medical claims and cell-line perturbations demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach. Most strikingly, CaML's zero-shot predictions outperform even strong baselines trained directly on data from the test interventions.
Internal Causal Mechanisms Robustly Predict Language Model Out-of-Distribution Behaviors
Interpretability research now offers a variety of techniques for identifying abstract internal mechanisms in neural networks. Can such techniques be used to predict how models will behave on out-of-distribution examples? In this work, we provide a positive answer to this question. Through a diverse set of language modeling tasks--including symbol manipulation, knowledge retrieval, and instruction following--we show that the most robust features for correctness prediction are those that play a distinctive causal role in the model's behavior. Specifically, we propose two methods that leverage causal mechanisms to predict the correctness of model outputs: counterfactual simulation (checking whether key causal variables are realized) and value probing (using the values of those variables to make predictions). Both achieve high AUC-ROC in distribution and outperform methods that rely on causal-agnostic features in out-of-distribution settings, where predicting model behaviors is more crucial. Our work thus highlights a novel and significant application for internal causal analysis of language models.
Causal Information Prioritization for Efficient Reinforcement Learning
Current Reinforcement Learning (RL) methods often suffer from sample-inefficiency, resulting from blind exploration strategies that neglect causal relationships among states, actions, and rewards. Although recent causal approaches aim to address this problem, they lack grounded modeling of reward-guided causal understanding of states and actions for goal-orientation, thus impairing learning efficiency. To tackle this issue, we propose a novel method named Causal Information Prioritization (CIP) that improves sample efficiency by leveraging factored MDPs to infer causal relationships between different dimensions of states and actions with respect to rewards, enabling the prioritization of causal information. Specifically, CIP identifies and leverages causal relationships between states and rewards to execute counterfactual data augmentation to prioritize high-impact state features under the causal understanding of the environments. Moreover, CIP integrates a causality-aware empowerment learning objective, which significantly enhances the agent's execution of reward-guided actions for more efficient exploration in complex environments. To fully assess the effectiveness of CIP, we conduct extensive experiments across 39 tasks in 5 diverse continuous control environments, encompassing both locomotion and manipulation skills learning with pixel-based and sparse reward settings. Experimental results demonstrate that CIP consistently outperforms existing RL methods across a wide range of scenarios.
Proximal Causal Learning of Conditional Average Treatment Effects
Efficiently and flexibly estimating treatment effect heterogeneity is an important task in a wide variety of settings ranging from medicine to marketing, and there are a considerable number of promising conditional average treatment effect estimators currently available. These, however, typically rely on the assumption that the measured covariates are enough to justify conditional exchangeability. We propose the P-learner, motivated by the R- and DR-learner, a tailored two-stage loss function for learning heterogeneous treatment effects in settings where exchangeability given observed covariates is an implausible assumption, and we wish to rely on proxy variables for causal inference. Our proposed estimator can be implemented by off-the-shelf loss-minimizing machine learning methods, which in the case of kernel regression satisfies an oracle bound on the estimated error as long as the nuisance components are estimated reasonably well.
Causal Direction of Data Collection Matters: Implications of Causal and Anticausal Learning for NLP
The principle of independent causal mechanisms (ICM) states that generative processes of real world data consist of independent modules which do not influence or inform each other. While this idea has led to fruitful developments in the field of causal inference, it is not widely-known in the NLP community. In this work, we argue that the causal direction of the data collection process bears nontrivial implications that can explain a number of published NLP findings, such as differences in semi-supervised learning (SSL) and domain adaptation (DA) performance across different settings. We categorize common NLP tasks according to their causal direction and empirically assay the validity of the ICM principle for text data using minimum description length. We conduct an extensive meta-analysis of over 100 published SSL and 30 DA studies, and find that the results are consistent with our expectations based on causal insights. This work presents the first attempt to analyze the ICM principle in NLP, and provides constructive suggestions for future modeling choices. Code available at https://github.com/zhijing-jin/icm4nlp
Learning Neural Causal Models with Active Interventions
Discovering causal structures from data is a challenging inference problem of fundamental importance in all areas of science. The appealing properties of neural networks have recently led to a surge of interest in differentiable neural network-based methods for learning causal structures from data. So far, differentiable causal discovery has focused on static datasets of observational or fixed interventional origin. In this work, we introduce an active intervention targeting (AIT) method which enables a quick identification of the underlying causal structure of the data-generating process. Our method significantly reduces the required number of interactions compared with random intervention targeting and is applicable for both discrete and continuous optimization formulations of learning the underlying directed acyclic graph (DAG) from data. We examine the proposed method across multiple frameworks in a wide range of settings and demonstrate superior performance on multiple benchmarks from simulated to real-world data.
Robust Reward Modeling via Causal Rubrics
Reward models (RMs) are fundamental to aligning Large Language Models (LLMs) via human feedback, yet they often suffer from reward hacking. They tend to latch on to superficial or spurious attributes, such as response length or formatting, mistaking these cues learned from correlations in training data for the true causal drivers of quality (e.g., factuality, relevance). This occurs because standard training objectives struggle to disentangle these factors, leading to brittle RMs and misaligned policies. We introduce Crome (Causally Robust Reward Modeling), a novel framework grounded in an explicit causal model designed to mitigate reward hacking. Crome employs the following synthetic targeted augmentations during training: (1) Causal Augmentations, which are pairs that differ along specific causal attributes, to enforce sensitivity along each causal attribute individually, and (2) Neutral Augmentations, which are tie-label pairs varying primarily in spurious attributes, to enforce invariance along spurious attributes. Notably, our augmentations are produced without any knowledge of spurious factors, via answer interventions only along causal rubrics, that are identified by querying an oracle LLM. Empirically, Crome significantly outperforms standard baselines on RewardBench, improving average accuracy by up to 5.4% and achieving gains of up to 13.2% and 7.2% in specific categories. The robustness of Crome is further testified by the consistent gains obtained in a Best-of-N inference setting across increasing N, across various benchmarks, including the popular RewardBench (covering chat, chat-hard, safety, and reasoning tasks), the safety-focused WildGuardTest, and the reasoning-specific GSM8k.
Differentiable Multi-Target Causal Bayesian Experimental Design
We introduce a gradient-based approach for the problem of Bayesian optimal experimental design to learn causal models in a batch setting -- a critical component for causal discovery from finite data where interventions can be costly or risky. Existing methods rely on greedy approximations to construct a batch of experiments while using black-box methods to optimize over a single target-state pair to intervene with. In this work, we completely dispose of the black-box optimization techniques and greedy heuristics and instead propose a conceptually simple end-to-end gradient-based optimization procedure to acquire a set of optimal intervention target-state pairs. Such a procedure enables parameterization of the design space to efficiently optimize over a batch of multi-target-state interventions, a setting which has hitherto not been explored due to its complexity. We demonstrate that our proposed method outperforms baselines and existing acquisition strategies in both single-target and multi-target settings across a number of synthetic datasets.
Generative Causal Representation Learning for Out-of-Distribution Motion Forecasting
Conventional supervised learning methods typically assume i.i.d samples and are found to be sensitive to out-of-distribution (OOD) data. We propose Generative Causal Representation Learning (GCRL) which leverages causality to facilitate knowledge transfer under distribution shifts. While we evaluate the effectiveness of our proposed method in human trajectory prediction models, GCRL can be applied to other domains as well. First, we propose a novel causal model that explains the generative factors in motion forecasting datasets using features that are common across all environments and with features that are specific to each environment. Selection variables are used to determine which parts of the model can be directly transferred to a new environment without fine-tuning. Second, we propose an end-to-end variational learning paradigm to learn the causal mechanisms that generate observations from features. GCRL is supported by strong theoretical results that imply identifiability of the causal model under certain assumptions. Experimental results on synthetic and real-world motion forecasting datasets show the robustness and effectiveness of our proposed method for knowledge transfer under zero-shot and low-shot settings by substantially outperforming the prior motion forecasting models on out-of-distribution prediction. Our code is available at https://github.com/sshirahmad/GCRL.
Bootstrap aggregation and confidence measures to improve time series causal discovery
Learning causal graphs from multivariate time series is a ubiquitous challenge in all application domains dealing with time-dependent systems, such as in Earth sciences, biology, or engineering, to name a few. Recent developments for this causal discovery learning task have shown considerable skill, notably the specific time-series adaptations of the popular conditional independence-based learning framework. However, uncertainty estimation is challenging for conditional independence-based methods. Here, we introduce a novel bootstrap approach designed for time series causal discovery that preserves the temporal dependencies and lag structure. It can be combined with a range of time series causal discovery methods and provides a measure of confidence for the links of the time series graphs. Furthermore, next to confidence estimation, an aggregation, also called bagging, of the bootstrapped graphs by majority voting results in bagged causal discovery methods. In this work, we combine this approach with the state-of-the-art conditional-independence-based algorithm PCMCI+. With extensive numerical experiments we empirically demonstrate that, in addition to providing confidence measures for links, Bagged-PCMCI+ improves in precision and recall as compared to its base algorithm PCMCI+, at the cost of higher computational demands. These statistical performance improvements are especially pronounced in the more challenging settings (short time sample size, large number of variables, high autocorrelation). Our bootstrap approach can also be combined with other time series causal discovery algorithms and can be of considerable use in many real-world applications.
MXMap: A Multivariate Cross Mapping Framework for Causal Discovery in Dynamical Systems
Convergent Cross Mapping (CCM) is a powerful method for detecting causality in coupled nonlinear dynamical systems, providing a model-free approach to capture dynamic causal interactions. Partial Cross Mapping (PCM) was introduced as an extension of CCM to address indirect causality in three-variable systems by comparing cross-mapping quality between direct cause-effect mapping and indirect mapping through an intermediate conditioning variable. However, PCM remains limited to univariate delay embeddings in its cross-mapping processes. In this work, we extend PCM to the multivariate setting, introducing multiPCM, which leverages multivariate embeddings to more effectively distinguish indirect causal relationships. We further propose a multivariate cross-mapping framework (MXMap) for causal discovery in dynamical systems. This two-phase framework combines (1) pairwise CCM tests to establish an initial causal graph and (2) multiPCM to refine the graph by pruning indirect causal connections. Through experiments on simulated data and the ERA5 Reanalysis weather dataset, we demonstrate the effectiveness of MXMap. Additionally, MXMap is compared against several baseline methods, showing advantages in accuracy and causal graph refinement.
A Unified Experiment Design Approach for Cyclic and Acyclic Causal Models
We study experiment design for unique identification of the causal graph of a simple SCM, where the graph may contain cycles. The presence of cycles in the structure introduces major challenges for experiment design as, unlike acyclic graphs, learning the skeleton of causal graphs with cycles may not be possible from merely the observational distribution. Furthermore, intervening on a variable in such graphs does not necessarily lead to orienting all the edges incident to it. In this paper, we propose an experiment design approach that can learn both cyclic and acyclic graphs and hence, unifies the task of experiment design for both types of graphs. We provide a lower bound on the number of experiments required to guarantee the unique identification of the causal graph in the worst case, showing that the proposed approach is order-optimal in terms of the number of experiments up to an additive logarithmic term. Moreover, we extend our result to the setting where the size of each experiment is bounded by a constant. For this case, we show that our approach is optimal in terms of the size of the largest experiment required for uniquely identifying the causal graph in the worst case.
CM3: A Causal Masked Multimodal Model of the Internet
We introduce CM3, a family of causally masked generative models trained over a large corpus of structured multi-modal documents that can contain both text and image tokens. Our new causally masked approach generates tokens left to right while also masking out a small number of long token spans that are generated at the end of the string, instead of their original positions. The casual masking object provides a type of hybrid of the more common causal and masked language models, by enabling full generative modeling while also providing bidirectional context when generating the masked spans. We train causally masked language-image models on large-scale web and Wikipedia articles, where each document contains all of the text, hypertext markup, hyperlinks, and image tokens (from a VQVAE-GAN), provided in the order they appear in the original HTML source (before masking). The resulting CM3 models can generate rich structured, multi-modal outputs while conditioning on arbitrary masked document contexts, and thereby implicitly learn a wide range of text, image, and cross modal tasks. They can be prompted to recover, in a zero-shot fashion, the functionality of models such as DALL-E, GENRE, and HTLM. We set the new state-of-the-art in zero-shot summarization, entity linking, and entity disambiguation while maintaining competitive performance in the fine-tuning setting. We can generate images unconditionally, conditioned on text (like DALL-E) and do captioning all in a zero-shot setting with a single model.
VCRBench: Exploring Long-form Causal Reasoning Capabilities of Large Video Language Models
Despite recent advances in video understanding, the capabilities of Large Video Language Models (LVLMs) to perform video-based causal reasoning remains underexplored, largely due to the absence of relevant and dedicated benchmarks for evaluating causal reasoning in visually grounded and goal-driven settings. To fill this gap, we introduce a novel benchmark named Video-based long-form Causal Reasoning (VCRBench). We create VCRBench using procedural videos of simple everyday activities, where the steps are deliberately shuffled with each clip capturing a key causal event, to test whether LVLMs can identify, reason about, and correctly sequence the events needed to accomplish a specific goal. Moreover, the benchmark is carefully designed to prevent LVLMs from exploiting linguistic shortcuts, as seen in multiple-choice or binary QA formats, while also avoiding the challenges associated with evaluating open-ended QA. Our evaluation of state-of-the-art LVLMs on VCRBench suggests that these models struggle with video-based long-form causal reasoning, primarily due to their difficulty in modeling long-range causal dependencies directly from visual observations. As a simple step toward enabling such capabilities, we propose Recognition-Reasoning Decomposition (RRD), a modular approach that breaks video-based causal reasoning into two sub-tasks of video recognition and causal reasoning. Our experiments on VCRBench show that RRD significantly boosts accuracy on VCRBench, with gains of up to 25.2%. Finally, our thorough analysis reveals interesting insights, for instance, that LVLMs primarily rely on language knowledge for complex video-based long-form causal reasoning tasks.
Respecting Temporal-Causal Consistency: Entity-Event Knowledge Graphs for Retrieval-Augmented Generation
Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) based on large language models often falters on narrative documents with inherent temporal structures. Standard unstructured RAG methods rely solely on embedding-similarity matching and lack any general mechanism to encode or exploit chronological information, while knowledge graph RAG (KG-RAG) frameworks collapse every mention of an entity into a single node, erasing the evolving context that drives many queries. To formalize this challenge and draw the community's attention, we construct ChronoQA, a robust and discriminative QA benchmark that measures temporal, causal, and character consistency understanding in narrative documents (e.g., novels) under the RAG setting. We then introduce Entity-Event RAG (E^2RAG), a dual-graph framework that keeps separate entity and event subgraphs linked by a bipartite mapping, thereby preserving the temporal and causal facets needed for fine-grained reasoning. Across ChronoQA, our approach outperforms state-of-the-art unstructured and KG-based RAG baselines, with notable gains on causal and character consistency queries. E^2RAG therefore offers a practical path to more context-aware retrieval for tasks that require precise answers grounded in chronological information.
Rating Multi-Modal Time-Series Forecasting Models (MM-TSFM) for Robustness Through a Causal Lens
AI systems are notorious for their fragility; minor input changes can potentially cause major output swings. When such systems are deployed in critical areas like finance, the consequences of their uncertain behavior could be severe. In this paper, we focus on multi-modal time-series forecasting, where imprecision due to noisy or incorrect data can lead to erroneous predictions, impacting stakeholders such as analysts, investors, and traders. Recently, it has been shown that beyond numeric data, graphical transformations can be used with advanced visual models to achieve better performance. In this context, we introduce a rating methodology to assess the robustness of Multi-Modal Time-Series Forecasting Models (MM-TSFM) through causal analysis, which helps us understand and quantify the isolated impact of various attributes on the forecasting accuracy of MM-TSFM. We apply our novel rating method on a variety of numeric and multi-modal forecasting models in a large experimental setup (six input settings of control and perturbations, ten data distributions, time series from six leading stocks in three industries over a year of data, and five time-series forecasters) to draw insights on robust forecasting models and the context of their strengths. Within the scope of our study, our main result is that multi-modal (numeric + visual) forecasting, which was found to be more accurate than numeric forecasting in previous studies, can also be more robust in diverse settings. Our work will help different stakeholders of time-series forecasting understand the models` behaviors along trust (robustness) and accuracy dimensions to select an appropriate model for forecasting using our rating method, leading to improved decision-making.
Teaching Transformers Causal Reasoning through Axiomatic Training
For text-based AI systems to interact in the real world, causal reasoning is an essential skill. Since interventional data is costly to generate, we study to what extent an agent can learn causal reasoning from passive data. Specifically, we consider an axiomatic training setup where an agent learns from multiple demonstrations of a causal axiom (or rule), rather than incorporating the axiom as an inductive bias or inferring it from data values. A key question is whether the agent would learn to generalize from the axiom demonstrations to new scenarios. For example, if a transformer model is trained on demonstrations of the causal transitivity axiom over small graphs, would it generalize to applying the transitivity axiom over large graphs? Our results, based on a novel axiomatic training scheme, indicate that such generalization is possible. We consider the task of inferring whether a variable causes another variable, given a causal graph structure. We find that a 67 million parameter transformer model, when trained on linear causal chains (along with some noisy variations) can generalize well to new kinds of graphs, including longer causal chains, causal chains with reversed order, and graphs with branching; even when it is not explicitly trained for such settings. Our model performs at par (or even better) than many larger language models such as GPT-4, Gemini Pro, and Phi-3. Overall, our axiomatic training framework provides a new paradigm of learning causal reasoning from passive data that can be used to learn arbitrary axioms, as long as sufficient demonstrations can be generated.
Asymmetric Graph Error Control with Low Complexity in Causal Bandits
In this paper, the causal bandit problem is investigated, in which the objective is to select an optimal sequence of interventions on nodes in a causal graph. It is assumed that the graph is governed by linear structural equations; it is further assumed that both the causal topology and the distribution of interventions are unknown. By exploiting the causal relationships between the nodes whose signals contribute to the reward, interventions are optimized. First, based on the difference between the two types of graph identification errors (false positives and negatives), a causal graph learning method is proposed, which strongly reduces sample complexity relative to the prior art by learning sub-graphs. Under the assumption of Gaussian exogenous inputs and minimum-mean squared error weight estimation, a new uncertainty bound tailored to the causal bandit problem is derived. This uncertainty bound drives an upper confidence bound based intervention selection to optimize the reward. To cope with non-stationary bandits, a sub-graph change detection mechanism is proposed, with high sample efficiency. Numerical results compare the new methodology to existing schemes and show a substantial performance improvement in both stationary and non-stationary settings. Compared to existing approaches, the proposed scheme takes 67% fewer samples to learn the causal structure and achieves an average reward gain of 85%.
DeepSpeed-VisualChat: Multi-Round Multi-Image Interleave Chat via Multi-Modal Causal Attention
Most of the existing multi-modal models, hindered by their incapacity to adeptly manage interleaved image-and-text inputs in multi-image, multi-round dialogues, face substantial constraints in resource allocation for training and data accessibility, impacting their adaptability and scalability across varied interaction realms. To address this, we present the DeepSpeed-VisualChat framework, designed to optimize Large Language Models (LLMs) by incorporating multi-modal capabilities, with a focus on enhancing the proficiency of Large Vision and Language Models in handling interleaved inputs. Our framework is notable for (1) its open-source support for multi-round and multi-image dialogues, (2) introducing an innovative multi-modal causal attention mechanism, and (3) utilizing data blending techniques on existing datasets to assure seamless interactions in multi-round, multi-image conversations. Compared to existing frameworks, DeepSpeed-VisualChat shows superior scalability up to 70B parameter language model size, representing a significant advancement in multi-modal language models and setting a solid foundation for future explorations.
WikiFactDiff: A Large, Realistic, and Temporally Adaptable Dataset for Atomic Factual Knowledge Update in Causal Language Models
The factuality of large language model (LLMs) tends to decay over time since events posterior to their training are "unknown" to them. One way to keep models up-to-date could be factual update: the task of inserting, replacing, or removing certain simple (atomic) facts within the model. To study this task, we present WikiFactDiff, a dataset that describes the evolution of factual knowledge between two dates as a collection of simple facts divided into three categories: new, obsolete, and static. We describe several update scenarios arising from various combinations of these three types of basic update. The facts are represented by subject-relation-object triples; indeed, WikiFactDiff was constructed by comparing the state of the Wikidata knowledge base at 4 January 2021 and 27 February 2023. Those fact are accompanied by verbalization templates and cloze tests that enable running update algorithms and their evaluation metrics. Contrary to other datasets, such as zsRE and CounterFact, WikiFactDiff constitutes a realistic update setting that involves various update scenarios, including replacements, archival, and new entity insertions. We also present an evaluation of existing update algorithms on WikiFactDiff.
Large-Scale Targeted Cause Discovery with Data-Driven Learning
We propose a novel machine learning approach for inferring causal variables of a target variable from observations. Our focus is on directly inferring a set of causal factors without requiring full causal graph reconstruction, which is computationally challenging in large-scale systems. The identified causal set consists of all potential regulators of the target variable under experimental settings, enabling efficient regulation when intervention costs and feasibility vary across variables. To achieve this, we train a neural network using supervised learning on simulated data to infer causality. By employing a local-inference strategy, our approach scales with linear complexity in the number of variables, efficiently scaling up to thousands of variables. Empirical results demonstrate superior performance in identifying causal relationships within large-scale gene regulatory networks, outperforming existing methods that emphasize full-graph discovery. We validate our model's generalization capability across out-of-distribution graph structures and generating mechanisms, including gene regulatory networks of E. coli and the human K562 cell line. Implementation codes are available at https://github.com/snu-mllab/Targeted-Cause-Discovery.
Training Sparse Mixture Of Experts Text Embedding Models
Transformer-based text embedding models have improved their performance on benchmarks like MIRACL and BEIR by increasing their parameter counts. However, this scaling approach introduces significant deployment challenges, including increased inference latency and memory usage. These challenges are particularly severe in retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) applications, where large models' increased memory requirements constrain dataset ingestion capacity, and their higher latency directly impacts query-time performance. While causal language models have addressed similar efficiency challenges using Mixture of Experts (MoE) architectures, this approach hasn't been successfully adapted to the general text embedding setting. In this paper, we introduce Nomic Embed v2, the first general purpose MoE text embedding model. Our model outperforms models in the same parameter class on both monolingual and multilingual benchmarks while also maintaining competitive performance with models twice its size. We open-source all code, models, and evaluation data to ensure full reproducibility of our training pipeline.
Debiased Front-Door Learners for Heterogeneous Effects
In observational settings where treatment and outcome share unmeasured confounders but an observed mediator remains unconfounded, the front-door (FD) adjustment identifies causal effects through the mediator. We study the heterogeneous treatment effect (HTE) under FD identification and introduce two debiased learners: FD-DR-Learner and FD-R-Learner. Both attain fast, quasi-oracle rates (i.e., performance comparable to an oracle that knows the nuisances) even when nuisance functions converge as slowly as n^-1/4. We provide error analyses establishing debiasedness and demonstrate robust empirical performance in synthetic studies and a real-world case study of primary seat-belt laws using Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) dataset. Together, these results indicate that the proposed learners deliver reliable and sample-efficient HTE estimates in FD scenarios. The implementation is available at https://github.com/yonghanjung/FD-CATE. Keywords: Front-door adjustment; Heterogeneous treatment effects; Debiased learning; Quasi-oracle rates; Causal inference.
PROST: Physical Reasoning of Objects through Space and Time
We present a new probing dataset named PROST: Physical Reasoning about Objects Through Space and Time. This dataset contains 18,736 multiple-choice questions made from 14 manually curated templates, covering 10 physical reasoning concepts. All questions are designed to probe both causal and masked language models in a zero-shot setting. We conduct an extensive analysis which demonstrates that state-of-the-art pretrained models are inadequate at physical reasoning: they are influenced by the order in which answer options are presented to them, they struggle when the superlative in a question is inverted (e.g., most <-> least), and increasing the amount of pretraining data and parameters only yields minimal improvements. These results provide support for the hypothesis that current pretrained models' ability to reason about physical interactions is inherently limited by a lack of real world experience. By highlighting these limitations, we hope to motivate the development of models with a human-like understanding of the physical world.
A Dynamical View of the Question of Why
We address causal reasoning in multivariate time series data generated by stochastic processes. Existing approaches are largely restricted to static settings, ignoring the continuity and emission of variations across time. In contrast, we propose a learning paradigm that directly establishes causation between events in the course of time. We present two key lemmas to compute causal contributions and frame them as reinforcement learning problems. Our approach offers formal and computational tools for uncovering and quantifying causal relationships in diffusion processes, subsuming various important settings such as discrete-time Markov decision processes. Finally, in fairly intricate experiments and through sheer learning, our framework reveals and quantifies causal links, which otherwise seem inexplicable.
LLaSA: A Multimodal LLM for Human Activity Analysis Through Wearable and Smartphone Sensors
Wearables generate rich motion data, yet current systems only classify what happened - failing to support natural questions about why it happened or what it means. We introduce LLaSA (Large Language and Sensor Assistant), a compact 13B model that enables ask-anything, open-ended question answering grounded in raw IMU data. LLaSA supports conversational, context-aware reasoning - explaining the causes of sensor-detected behaviors and answering free-form questions in real-world scenarios. It is tuned for scientific accuracy, coherence, and response reliability. To advance this new task of sensor-based QA, we release three large-scale datasets: SensorCaps, OpenSQA, and Tune-OpenSQA. Together, these resources define a new benchmark for sensor-language models. LLaSA consistently produces interpretable, causal answers and outperforms commercial LLMs across both public and real-world settings. Our code repository and datasets can be found at https://github.com/BASHLab/LLaSA.
IPR-1: Interactive Physical Reasoner
Humans learn by observing, interacting with environments, and internalizing physics and causality. Here, we aim to ask whether an agent can similarly acquire human-like reasoning from interaction and keep improving with more experience. We study this in a Game-to-Unseen (G2U) setting, curating 1,000+ heterogeneous games with diverse physical and causal mechanisms, and evaluate at three human-like levels: Survival, Curiosity, Utility, from primitive intuition to goal-driven reasoning. Our analysis reveals complementary failures: VLM/VLA agents reason but lack look-ahead in interactive settings, while world models imagine but imitate visual patterns rather than analyze physics and causality. We therefore propose IPR (Interactive Physical Reasoner), using world-model rollouts to score and reinforce a VLM's policy, and introduce PhysCode, a physics-centric action code aligning semantic intent with dynamics to provide a shared action space for prediction and reasoning. Pretrained on 1,000+ games, our IPR performs robustly on three levels, matches GPT-5 overall, and surpasses it on Curiosity. We find that performance improves with more training games and interaction steps, and that the model also zero-shot transfers to unseen games. These results support physics-centric interaction as a path to steadily improving physical reasoning.
Towards Understanding the Relationship between In-context Learning and Compositional Generalization
According to the principle of compositional generalization, the meaning of a complex expression can be understood as a function of the meaning of its parts and of how they are combined. This principle is crucial for human language processing and also, arguably, for NLP models in the face of out-of-distribution data. However, many neural network models, including Transformers, have been shown to struggle with compositional generalization. In this paper, we hypothesize that forcing models to in-context learn can provide an inductive bias to promote compositional generalization. To test this hypothesis, we train a causal Transformer in a setting that renders ordinary learning very difficult: we present it with different orderings of the training instance and shuffle instance labels. This corresponds to training the model on all possible few-shot learning problems attainable from the dataset. The model can solve the task, however, by utilizing earlier examples to generalize to later ones (i.e. in-context learning). In evaluations on the datasets, SCAN, COGS, and GeoQuery, models trained in this manner indeed show improved compositional generalization. This indicates the usefulness of in-context learning problems as an inductive bias for generalization.
Causally Fair Node Classification on Non-IID Graph Data
Fair machine learning seeks to identify and mitigate biases in predictions against unfavorable populations characterized by demographic attributes, such as race and gender. Recently, a few works have extended fairness to graph data, such as social networks, but most of them neglect the causal relationships among data instances. This paper addresses the prevalent challenge in fairness-aware ML algorithms, which typically assume Independent and Identically Distributed (IID) data. We tackle the overlooked domain of non-IID, graph-based settings where data instances are interconnected, influencing the outcomes of fairness interventions. We base our research on the Network Structural Causal Model (NSCM) framework and posit two main assumptions: Decomposability and Graph Independence, which enable the computation of interventional distributions in non-IID settings using the do-calculus. Based on that, we develop the Message Passing Variational Autoencoder for Causal Inference (MPVA) to compute interventional distributions and facilitate causally fair node classification through estimated interventional distributions. Empirical evaluations on semi-synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that MPVA outperforms conventional methods by effectively approximating interventional distributions and mitigating bias. The implications of our findings underscore the potential of causality-based fairness in complex ML applications, setting the stage for further research into relaxing the initial assumptions to enhance model fairness.
Linear Attention for Efficient Bidirectional Sequence Modeling
Linear Transformers and State Space Models have emerged as efficient alternatives to softmax Transformers for causal sequence modeling, enabling parallel training via matrix multiplication and efficient RNN-style inference. However, despite their success in causal tasks, no unified framework exists for applying Linear Transformers to bidirectional sequence modeling. We introduce LION, the first framework to systematically extend Linear Transformers to the bidirectional setting. LION generalizes three core representations commonly used in the causal case - full Linear Attention , bidirectional RNN, and chunkwise parallel form - to the bidirectional setting. These forms are theoretically equivalent and enable models to exploit the strengths of each during training and inference. We prove that a broad class of Linear Transformers can be extended using LION and validate our framework via three core examples based on the choice of decay type: LION-LIT, the bidirectional extension of arXiv:2006.16236; LION-D, based on arXiv:2307.08621; and LION-S, a variant using selective decay arXiv:2103.02143, arXiv:2312.0075. Across standard bidirectional tasks, LION enables models to match or exceed the performance of softmax Transformers, while offering significantly faster training and more efficient inference than existing State Space Models.
The Hedgehog & the Porcupine: Expressive Linear Attentions with Softmax Mimicry
Linear attentions have shown potential for improving Transformer efficiency, reducing attention's quadratic complexity to linear in sequence length. This holds exciting promise for (1) training linear Transformers from scratch, (2) "finetuned-conversion" of task-specific Transformers into linear versions that recover task performance, and (3) "pretrained-conversion" of Transformers such as large language models into linear versions finetunable on downstream tasks. However, linear attentions often underperform standard softmax attention in quality. To close this performance gap, we find prior linear attentions lack key properties of softmax attention tied to good performance: low-entropy (or "spiky") weights and dot-product monotonicity. We further observe surprisingly simple feature maps that retain these properties and match softmax performance, but are inefficient to compute in linear attention. We thus propose Hedgehog, a learnable linear attention that retains the spiky and monotonic properties of softmax attention while maintaining linear complexity. Hedgehog uses simple trainable MLPs to produce attention weights mimicking softmax attention. Experiments show Hedgehog recovers over 99% of standard Transformer quality in train-from-scratch and finetuned-conversion settings, outperforming prior linear attentions up to 6 perplexity points on WikiText-103 with causal GPTs, and up to 8.7 GLUE score points on finetuned bidirectional BERTs. Hedgehog also enables pretrained-conversion. Converting a pretrained GPT-2 into a linear attention variant achieves state-of-the-art 16.7 perplexity on WikiText-103 for 125M subquadratic decoder models. We finally turn a pretrained Llama-2 7B into a viable linear attention Llama. With low-rank adaptation, Hedgehog-Llama2 7B achieves 28.1 higher ROUGE-1 points over the base standard attention model, where prior linear attentions lead to 16.5 point drops.
UniMEEC: Towards Unified Multimodal Emotion Recognition and Emotion Cause
Multimodal emotion recognition in conversation (MERC) and multimodal emotion-cause pair extraction (MECPE) have recently garnered significant attention. Emotions are the expression of affect or feelings; responses to specific events, or situations -- known as emotion causes. Both collectively explain the causality between human emotion and intents. However, existing works treat emotion recognition and emotion cause extraction as two individual problems, ignoring their natural causality. In this paper, we propose a Unified Multimodal Emotion recognition and Emotion-Cause analysis framework (UniMEEC) to explore the causality between emotion and emotion cause. Concretely, UniMEEC reformulates the MERC and MECPE tasks as mask prediction problems and unifies them with a causal prompt template. To differentiate the modal effects, UniMEEC proposes a multimodal causal prompt to probe the pre-trained knowledge specified to modality and implements cross-task and cross-modality interactions under task-oriented settings. Experiment results on four public benchmark datasets verify the model performance on MERC and MECPE tasks and achieve consistent improvements compared with the previous state-of-the-art methods.
Can Large Language Models Infer Causation from Correlation?
Causal inference is one of the hallmarks of human intelligence. While the field of CausalNLP has attracted much interest in the recent years, existing causal inference datasets in NLP primarily rely on discovering causality from empirical knowledge (e.g., commonsense knowledge). In this work, we propose the first benchmark dataset to test the pure causal inference skills of large language models (LLMs). Specifically, we formulate a novel task Corr2Cause, which takes a set of correlational statements and determines the causal relationship between the variables. We curate a large-scale dataset of more than 400K samples, on which we evaluate seventeen existing LLMs. Through our experiments, we identify a key shortcoming of LLMs in terms of their causal inference skills, and show that these models achieve almost close to random performance on the task. This shortcoming is somewhat mitigated when we try to re-purpose LLMs for this skill via finetuning, but we find that these models still fail to generalize -- they can only perform causal inference in in-distribution settings when variable names and textual expressions used in the queries are similar to those in the training set, but fail in out-of-distribution settings generated by perturbing these queries. Corr2Cause is a challenging task for LLMs, and would be helpful in guiding future research on improving LLMs' pure reasoning skills and generalizability. Our data is at https://huggingface.co/datasets/causalnlp/corr2cause. Our code is at https://github.com/causalNLP/corr2cause.
GrAInS: Gradient-based Attribution for Inference-Time Steering of LLMs and VLMs
Inference-time steering methods offer a lightweight alternative to fine-tuning large language models (LLMs) and vision-language models (VLMs) by modifying internal activations at test time without updating model weights. However, most existing approaches rely on fixed, global intervention vectors, overlook the causal influence of individual input tokens, and fail to leverage informative gradients from the model's logits, particularly in multimodal settings where visual and textual inputs contribute unevenly. To address these limitations, we introduce GrAInS, an inference-time steering approach that operates across both language-only and vision-language models and tasks. GrAInS uses contrastive, gradient-based attribution via Integrated Gradients to identify the top-k most influential tokens, both positively and negatively attributed based on their contribution to preferred versus dispreferred outputs. These tokens are then used to construct directional steering vectors that capture semantic shifts from undesirable to desirable behavior. During inference, GrAInS adjusts hidden activations at transformer layers guided by token-level attribution signals, and normalizes activations to preserve representational scale. This enables fine-grained, interpretable, and modular control over model behavior, without retraining or auxiliary supervision. Empirically, GrAInS consistently outperforms both fine-tuning and existing steering baselines: it achieves a 13.22% accuracy gain on TruthfulQA using Llama-3.1-8B, reduces hallucination rates on MMHal-Bench from 0.624 to 0.514 with LLaVA-1.6-7B, and improves alignment win rates on SPA-VL by 8.11%, all while preserving the model's fluency and general capabilities.
Various Lengths, Constant Speed: Efficient Language Modeling with Lightning Attention
We present Lightning Attention, the first linear attention implementation that maintains a constant training speed for various sequence lengths under fixed memory consumption. Due to the issue with cumulative summation operations (cumsum), previous linear attention implementations cannot achieve their theoretical advantage in a casual setting. However, this issue can be effectively solved by utilizing different attention calculation strategies to compute the different parts of attention. Specifically, we split the attention calculation into intra-blocks and inter-blocks and use conventional attention computation for intra-blocks and linear attention kernel tricks for inter-blocks. This eliminates the need for cumsum in the linear attention calculation. Furthermore, a tiling technique is adopted through both forward and backward procedures to take full advantage of the GPU hardware. To enhance accuracy while preserving efficacy, we introduce TransNormerLLM (TNL), a new architecture that is tailored to our lightning attention. We conduct rigorous testing on standard and self-collected datasets with varying model sizes and sequence lengths. TNL is notably more efficient than other language models. In addition, benchmark results indicate that TNL performs on par with state-of-the-art LLMs utilizing conventional transformer structures. The source code is released at github.com/OpenNLPLab/TransnormerLLM.
Simple yet Effective Code-Switching Language Identification with Multitask Pre-Training and Transfer Learning
Code-switching, also called code-mixing, is the linguistics phenomenon where in casual settings, multilingual speakers mix words from different languages in one utterance. Due to its spontaneous nature, code-switching is extremely low-resource, which makes it a challenging problem for language and speech processing tasks. In such contexts, Code-Switching Language Identification (CSLID) becomes a difficult but necessary task if we want to maximally leverage existing monolingual tools for other tasks. In this work, we propose two novel approaches toward improving language identification accuracy on an English-Mandarin child-directed speech dataset. Our methods include a stacked Residual CNN+GRU model and a multitask pre-training approach to use Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR) as an auxiliary task for CSLID. Due to the low-resource nature of code-switching, we also employ careful silver data creation using monolingual corpora in both languages and up-sampling as data augmentation. We focus on English-Mandarin code-switched data, but our method works on any language pair. Our best model achieves a balanced accuracy of 0.781 on a real English-Mandarin code-switching child-directed speech corpus and outperforms the previous baseline by 55.3%.
